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Don’t personally see any reason why a lack of experience will make any difference whatsoever?
The way I see it…Saint Calvados jumps off…jumps the fences like hurdles and never sees another horse…where does the lack of experience come into play if the race pans out like that?
My 100% book:
6/4 Footpad
5/1 Saint Calvados
11/2 Sceau Royal
6/1 Petit Mouchoir
6/1 The FieldValue Is EverythingThe industry chaps would get bowled over if they offered 7/4 on the day. I could just about envisage 6/4 if the short priced fav gets turned over in the Supreme.
Capitaine (think that’s how its spelt) for Nichols looks a massive price at 40/1 for this (though 25/1 for the JLT so could go there), wants better ground imo than he got at Sandown so could improve a good amount for that run.
I was impressed with Petit Mouchoir’s run behind Footpad. He took a while to warm up but wasn’t knocked about in the finish an it will be an interesting rematch in March. Having backed Footpad to win (16/1, posted earlier in the thread), I have added Petit Mouchoir each way at 5/1 NRNB.
I couldn’t resist cashing out my Footpad ante-posts with B365, who were offering eight times the stake, and have doubled down on Petit Mouchoir. As impressed as I was with Footpad at Leopardstown, that Petit Mouchoir run was huge coming back off an injury and he was looked after when his chance was gone.
Really, i cant cash out any of mine,even the ones that have got tonked. Same last year and the year before. They only offer me a cash out the evening before the selection is going to run on anti post bets. Did you have to ring up or was it displayed on the bottom of the betting slip????
A lot of accounts are getting cash out options on 365, on the app. Presumably its account specific.
Hi Jaymo, I’m showing cash out options on most of my ante posts with B365, some good, some bad. This is the first season I’ve noticed it.
It’s been like that for a while now, i hope it’s a new policy and they carry on with it. Just cashed out a non NRNB bet for 10% less than i staked and can back it at double the price NRNB
They are also offering me 5 x my stake on one i took 9/1 for, it’s hard to refuse really
It’s not just Cheltenham either, they are offering a 6/1 payout on Saxon Warrior for the Derby
Its a massive positive for punters if your being allowed that. Bet365 clearly dont like me. I cant get on any money for greyhounds and my horse bets are reduced. Their the 1st to price up,thats the only reason i partially bet with them.
Lots of good points made here in the last page or two. I totally agree with the sentiment that Footpad is too short and that the difference in price between him and Saint Calvados/Petit Mouchoir/Sceau Royal is too big. Dr Olney is right though – part of it is bookie just running scared from the waves of Getabird/Footpad/Buveur D’air/Apple’s Jade multis. It’s potentially disaster if you’re top price on that four-timer combined.
On the plus side, this is a good spot for the savvy punters who fancy one of the other three runners (I think we can write off ‘the field’ easily enough here).
FOOTPAD
A useful and versatile hurdler, though just half a step behind Petit Mouchoir at two miles. His nimble jumping suggests he is at least as good as that as a chaser. You can’t really make any precise weights and measures verdict on his three runs over fences as handicap projects Brelade and Any Second Now wouldn’t want to be getting too close to him. He had more of a serious race from Petit Mouchoir in the Irish Arkle, though that rival walked through the first two fences and was returing from an absence. He is certainly respected but is absolutely unbackable at the price. I don’t see how anyone could claim he has more than 50% chance of winning. He doesn’t.
PETIT MOUCHOIR
A slightly better hurdler than Footpad, Petit Mouchoir achieved a great deal over timber despite being somewhat clumsy. “Not fluent”, “mistake”, “hit” etc pepper his comments in running – and he also stacked it quite horribly when poised to win the Fighting Fifth. That is my main concern about him in this arena, especially as Footpad and Saint Calvados could both hassle him or even beat him to the early lead. As a chaser, Petit Mouchoir made a striking debut (again from Brelade) early in the season before injury held him up mid-winter. He ran an encouraging race to get within 5 lengths of Footpad in the Irish Arkle despite two shocking mistakes (both when pressing the winner).
I’m already on at 10/1 and won’t be trading out but I do fear for him a little here. When I took the bet, I foresaw him being able to make all. That seems unlikely now.
SAINT CALVADOS
Has been a delight to watch for the excellent Harry Whittington, who deserved another top front-running jumper after losing Arzal a couple of seasons ago and suffering from the virus in his yard last year. Unlike Footpad and Petit Mouchoir, Saint Calvados doesn’t yet have experience in Grade 1 company, but yet his official rating of 160 has been 100% deserved.
Good ground is the main objection people raise about Saint Calvados but Timeform suggests the true state of the ground was ‘good-to-soft’ rather than the Racing Post’s ‘soft’ when he won the Prix Cyborg at Cagnes-Sur-Mer in December 2016. There is plenty on both sides of his pedigree to suggest he can adapt too (Saint Des Saints out of a Pistolet Bleu mare).
In my view, we know the absolute ceiling of Footpad’s ability but we haven’t yet seen where it is with Saint Calvados. He jumps like a cat and he isn’t a one-dimensional front-runner. It generally pays to be prominent or lead on the Arkle course at Cheltenham – he ticks that box too.
SCEAU ROYAL
Another smart yet not quite elite hurdler – Sceau Royal has been the picture of efficiency since switching to fences. I remember his chase debut at Warwick. I actually opposed him with Forth Bridge that day on the horribly misguided view that the tall and chunky Forth Bridge has the look of a chaser much more than the light-framed little Sceau Royal. So much for that! Forth Bridge bungled around like a drunken hippo while Sceau Royal popped away beautifully throughout.
That has been the pattern throughout Sceau Royal’s season. I can’t think of many novices with such consistently slick and accurate technique. His style of racing will be handy in the context of this year’s Arkle with all three main rivals being zesty front-runners. Though the course typically does favour a prominent runner, this race has all the makings of a pace meltdown. If he can ghost along and arrive on the scene at the last (tactics that worked so well for him at Sandown), then he’ll be hard to stop.
Conclusion:
You know me – I’m not going to suggest anything each-way. I’m going to take the 11/2 Saint Calvados and 15/2 Sceau Royal both win-only. Potential for top-ups if Getabird wins and bookies push them out to silly prices on the day too.
My 100% book:
6/4 Footpad
5/1 Saint Calvados
11/2 Sceau Royal
6/1 Petit Mouchoir
6/1 The FieldI like it Gingertipster. Pretty much see it that way myself, though a touch bigger ‘The Field’ and Footpad and a bit shorter Sceau Royal and Saint Calvados.
Maybe something in it though as a lot of the field have shortened across the board…
William Hill in particular have a very strange market now…
Footpad 6/4
Petit Mouchoir 2/1
Saint Calvados 11/4
Sceau Royal 5/1Usually there isnt such a definitive quote immediately after a drift, but there has been a definite “no clue why did his usual work today” quote, not saying theres nothing in it, just unusually treated if there is.
Market moves were defensive I think – Footpad drifting and wise guys trying to back Petit Mouchoir, Saint Calvados and Sceau Royal in response.
Given Mullins’ history of announcing antepost NRs by exchange drifts, bookies don’t want to be taking any chances.
I held fire on Saint Calvados to see if it was likely we would get soft ground. When I heard forecasts suggesting it may well be soft, I took 5/1 (NRNB)
I think Footpad will confirm form with Petit Mouchoir and even though Nicky Henderson is very upbeat about Brain Power, I think my early 16/1 on him is well piddled down the drain after a couple of stinky efforts left him on the canvas.
Saint Calvados looks a serious prospect.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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