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None of this is to say I wouldn’t love to see Harry Whittingdon train an Arkle winner. That would be marvellous for the Festival and the sport.
Footpad finished second in a Grade 1 on good ground, third in a Triumph on good ground.
They’ve now changed tacticsMike, he was only 4 last season, therefore he wasn’t allowed to run in the race.
Which is another negative. He’s 5 now and while that age group used to do well a decade or so ago when they received a 5lb allowance, as exploited by Pipe and Nicholls on multiple occasions, it’s rare nowadays for them to even run in it.
There’s a reason they used to get an allowance and since coming over from France he’s ran in – and won – three races. All were four runner races run in deep ground.
That’s going to be a long way removed from what he’ll get in the Arkle and his lack of experience in a race of that nature has to be a big concern when the other three at the head of the market have all experienced the hurly burly of a truly run Champion Hurdle.
The thing that this whole discussions doesn’t seem to be taking into account is the sheer price difference.
One hoss is EVS and the other is 6s. Is Footpad truly 6x more likely to win this race than SC? Can’t have that being right personally.
I don’t think he’s burning off completely Steeple, look at him after the last on Saturday he was still stretching away with a lot more to give.
Track & ground can be the worries but he handled Newbury well and although it doesn’t have the undulations like Cheltenham, it’s a stiff galloping track like Chelt is.
Clock boys have rated Saturdays performance around 170. That’s a huge figure for a novice.
That’s not how you equate a horse’s chance.
Evens means a 50% chance
6/1 means a 14.28% chance50/14.28 = 3.5
so the question should be “Is Footpad truly 3.5x more likely to win this race than SC?”. In which case I’d say it’s a fair reflection, hence their current prices.
but do I think Footpad is value at Evens? No, not particularly. Not when you have Sceau Royal, Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados lying in wait, among others.
I was waiting for that reply.
Let me put it another way, is getting £600 profit compared to £100 relate to his chance? In punting terms, not chance, it’s too big a difference.
I’d agree but not because I think Saint Calvados is too long – he’s not – but because Footpad is clearly way under-priced and that’s because the bookies nowadays will shorten a horse (esp. a WPM one) as soon as he’s posted a decent performance and fail to push them back out when other performances of note come along.
But just because Footpad is too short shouldn’t necessarily be reason to back Saint Calvados.
No way is Footpad as short as he is right now on the day. They all line up and he’ll be minimum 6/4.
Price the race up then lads?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I understand the points against him, maybe he will need soft ground maybe he wont, but at 12/1 when i took it and wrote my original post, id still back hom at 6/1, he trounced good horses, the ground was not “bottomless” but i take joes comments on his knee action into consideration
At the price hes worth chancing that he will be as effective, he jumps those fences like hes hurdling, loses no momentum and speeds away from them, he would seriously put PM jumping under presuure and equally footpads.
Really liked his performance, footpad is a worthy fav im not dillusional, but like kev has stated 6/1 against 5/4 or whatever footpad is its a no brainer for me atm
Like i said before the CH comment isnt relevant, need to go on what there doing now, not last season.
Price the race up then lads?
Day of race, betting to 103.33%
Footpad 7/4
Petit Mouchoir 7/2
Sceau Royal 5/1
Saint Calvados 13/2
Brain Power 9/120/1 the field, inc. North Hil Harvey et al
Previous festival form is not irrelevant, it’s one of the biggest factors in identifying future festival winners and is going to be a much better guide than having been winning four runner races in mid winter.
Footpad 7/4
Petit Mouchoir 7/2
Saint Calvados 7/2
Sceau Royal 8/1
Brain Power 12/1
25s BarYou can’t reduce everything to data. Four-runner midwinter races wouldn’t be the ideal star-spotting ground for any horse, but our job as punters is to try to pick out future champs despite the data and despite the conditions.
Your eyes tell you more than any going stick or formbook, and my first thought after they’d jumped two on Saturday was that he’d gone off much too fast and that Skelton should be laying much further off the pace on North Hill Harvey. I was right about Skelton but wrong about Saint Calvados.
No doubt in my mind he has the engine to win an Arkle, but I’m not brave enough to overlook the potential drawbacks. Far and away the biggest of those is zero experience on spring ground allied to that knee action. In decades of punting it still took me a long time to accept that, as the saying goes, if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, chances are very high that a duck is exactly what it is.
But I don’t have much interest financially in the Arkle – a small bet on Petit Mouchoir and another on North Hill Harvey – and if Saint Calvados sets out in front with those big ears pricked (a very rare sight for a whole circuit) I’ll be cheering him louder at every fence. We could use another superstar and I very much hope he is it.
The thing that this whole discussions doesn’t seem to be taking into account is the sheer price difference.One hoss is EVS and the other is 6s. Is Footpad truly 6x more likely to win this race than SC? Can’t have that being right personally.
I don’t think he’s burning off completely Steeple, look at him after the last on Saturday he was still stretching away with a lot more to give.
Track & ground can be the worries but he handled Newbury well and although it doesn’t have the undulations like Cheltenham, it’s a stiff galloping track like Chelt is.
Clock boys have rated Saturdays performance around 170. That’s a huge figure for a novice.
Exactly, Kev.
Value Is EverythingWhich is another negative. He’s 5 now and while that age group used to do well a decade or so ago when they received a 5lb allowance, as exploited by Pipe and Nicholls on multiple occasions, it’s rare nowadays for them to even run in it.
There’s a reason they used to get an allowance
SC is no ordinary 5yo, he’s extremely well grown, dwarfs older horses and well muscled up.
Yes, there is good reason they used to get an allowance, they no longer get an allowance because it was found to be unfairly generous. This particular 5 year old needs no allowance, already being of high ability.Value Is Everything
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