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CILLIOS EMERY 20/1
Think though he not run well in supreme that was more down to not being ready for it than not like track.Bounce back at Punchestown beat Melon.And think when arkle come along be more ready for Cheltenham.And fences see best of him.
Quite impressed with Petit Mouchoir at Punchestown today. He was a bit chancy as a hurdler but seemed to treat the fences with respect.
I think the 10/1 top-price for the Arkle could have a bit of juice in it. You need a bit of zip to win the Arkle, with the track being much sharper than most people realise. Finian’s Oscar obviously isn’t quick enough for that sort of test, Melon stays hurdling and not many others in the ante-post list really give me the willies. Movewiththetimes probably the most interesting alternative.
I’ll have a little early nibble at it. The Arkle is definitely his race (no chance of JLT or anything else), he has the right running style for the Arkle and he can only get shorter as he racks up the wins in a weak Irish 2m novice chase scene this winter.
It feels a bit…wrong to be wading in on the first good 2m novice I’ve seen this season but I feel like it also makes a lot of sense. Any other opinions on the Mouch?
Still 10/1 any race with sports book. If anyone was going to back him for the arkle at his currwnt price, I’d definitely advise the any race market.
Hugely impressed by Petit Mouchoir. Not only is he a natural fencer, he absolutely loves it – an appetite for chasing like that is worth its weight in gold. Very rare to see a horse on his debut at this level (he ran in, and won, one point) able to put himself bang on stride without jockey intervention as PM did two out, moving noticeably left to find the perfect takeoff point.
Made a big impression on me and he’s with the right trainer. His price is big enough to ease the anxiety about staying sound.
Even if Finian’s Oscar is aimed at the Arkle, he looked less than a natural at Chepstow. He looked to me a worried horse and jumped like the fences were alight. He struck me as so nervy that he couldn’t even concentrate on his racing and I think that’s why he ended up so far out of his ground. It came as no surprise the next day to hear his rider say he had slipped badly going into the third and scared himself. One thing, though, the way he finished suggests he has a huge engine and I wouldn’t rule out Tizzard fixing his fencing.
But 9/1 PM is too good to miss.
Second that Joe – I have just watched Petit Mouchoir. Watching that replay was an affirmation of all that is good about NH racing. Without doubt, the stand out performance so far from a novice chaser this season. His attitude and jumping ability (plus speed) reminded me instantly of one other famous grey convert from top level hurdling to chasing, Dessie himself. Although he is a little more tractable than Dessie was as a novice chaser. I have him as my Arkle horse already.
I agree re Finian’s Oscar too. Maybe he scared himself at the third, but before that he was slow, ponderous even. I’m also not convinced of BC on him – he didn’t seem to be helping what I saw as major confidence issues. Perhaps the two are related? Yes, the horse has an engine, but he needed that engine to close on far inferior horses and who knows what would have happened if the Nicholls horse hadn’t slipped up. I cannot see FO getting anywhere near Petit Mouchoir over two miles, who jumps for fun and has the engine to boot. Maybe CT will sort his jumping out but, on the evidence of Chepstow, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if this one reverted to hurdles at some point this season.
Cilaos Emery and Melon have been confirmed as Hurdling this season so that rules them out.
A decent round by Capitaine at Market Raspberry today. 25/1 for the Arkle now.
Wouldn’t be for me as he isn’t a horse to trust but maybe some of his loyal fans will be loading up at this point?
Looking through the Arkle market, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot to take Petit Mouchoir on.
I’m likely clutching at straws, but… I’m excited to see Yanworth chasing this season. He hurdled like a chaser so you’d hope the switch should be seamless. I know there’s a thought that he’s too slow for 2 miles, but I don’t believe that he was right in the Champion Hurdle – after which it came to light Alan King had used a substance on him – and I don’t take that form to mean he necessarily wants further. If they did decide to stick to the minimum trip with him, 20/1 is a big price.
I’m interested to see what happens with Peace and Co, but I can’t find anything in terms of recent news on him?
I like Capitaine LS, but think he may be quite ground dependent. If it is not raining and there is any remote micro-risk of the dreaded F word appearing in the going description I think the ground will be watered down to “good to soft” for Day 1 of Cheltenham then allowed to dry towards good later in the week. So will be wary of backing any good-ground dependent horses AP for Day 1.
Yanworth does look like being a great chaser but will he be sound come March? Joints don’t spontaneously improve I don’t think…they only go in one direction. Again, price needs to reflect the risk.
last I heard there was a good chance Peace and Co would be running in France.
North Hill Harvey wasn’t quoted anywhere for this this morning. Now 33s with Power which is worth a fiver, I think. Very hot race and the way he stayed on suggests JLT would come under consideration, but 33s too big.
None of those three make much appeal for the Arkle, though I suppose North Hill Harvey’s prominent style and solid jumping will be good assets for what is quite a sharp track in March.
If anything, you’d shorten the Mouch after watching that race, though. Looks like Grand Annual or JLT for Movewiththetimes.
I’d say JLT. His full brother wanted further than 2 Miles.
Also looked a bit big in the parade ring so probably needed the run.Might be early to write off Movewiththetimes – was travelling like a proper horse three out and seemed to blow up.
The winner could come on a fair bit too – cracking big horse. His attitude in a finish will stand him in very good stead too.
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