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Outstanding renewal. Ground will play a big part in this possibly, especially if Speredek goes off doing his best Special Tiara impression again.
I suppose some will see 9/1 Cue Card in a 7 runner race a bit of value here. It is a big price for a horse with form in the race but he’s 12 YO now and hasn’t had much of a season so far.
The Tizzards reckon he looks a million dollars and is as good as they have ever had him, so surely no excuses if he fails to fire here. This looks way tougher than last year’s renewal though.
I feel Coney Island is a bit short at a general 11/4 now and I notice that punters don’t seem to be buying into the notion that Frodon is actually 2 lbs higher than Coney Island on official ratings now, with the Nicholls horse 8/1, despite his supposed higher rating.
A good and competitive renewal despite only seven runners and it should help form a clearer pecking order if the old boy doesn’t kick them all to the kerb and expose them as young pretenders.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lol, to be fair Steve, they have used the “is as good as they have ever had him” line for many of theirs this year and its been bull!
I like Coney Island, but i do believe he might be up against two proper 2 1/2 milers here…be some race, probably not a betting one.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve backed my old friend Cue Card at 10/1 EW last week and expecting to see some big names being scratched. Not so sure now, a very strong edition. I think Waiting Patiently will win this quite easily. I was very impressed with his run in Kempton. Not so sure yet about Coney Island, his previous win was a strange race.
Top notch slightly underrated I think. Although yes he’s favourite but I think his form is 4/5 pounds better than anything in this has produced (other than Cue Card – who is clearly not at his peak) and I also think TN could even be improving. I’ve been very impressed with him
It’s very rare that an NH race grabs me, but I think this could be one of the races of the NH Season. I would agree Jaso, we may not have seen the best of Top Notch yet, and I fancy him or the Irish raider to fight it out. Waiting Patiently only adds to the race, and not forgetting Cue Card and Frodon.
I’m going on Saturday, and it looks a race to savour.
TOP NOTCH all day long for me . He is the speed horse in the race , a really fine jumper , gutsy , and has the added advantage of liking Ascot .
I am an admirer of Waiting Patiently and he should put up a good show . Although he won quite impressively in his previous race , I just felt that he ran in snatches during the race , and wasn’t as fluent over the fences as I’d hoped for . I expect Cheltenham in March will be more to his liking .
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Would absolutely love to see Waiting Patiently win it for the North! He’s improving all the time and a classy horse but I just feel Top Notch will be just a bit too good!
He’s 3/3 at Ascot and the form of his last run over CD doesn’t look too shabby…trouncing Double Shuffle who went on to finish 2nd in the King George on his next start….arguably not the greatest King George of all time but still better form than most in this field bring to the table….Frodon was well beaten back in 3rd that day too and has since ran a good second and bolted up last time…
Top Notch to have too much class and win with a bit to spare for me..
Waiting Patiently should win this comfortably before picking up the Ryanair.
He’s unbeaten for more than 2 years and has the classic profile of an ever-improving horse (120 to 164) on his way to the top.
I struggle to see how so many judges seem to be able to so easily side with one of either Top Notch or Waiting Patiently. I really can’t split them and am pretty happy just to sit with my e/w bet on Cue Card for 3 places and not worry about trying to guess who’s going to get the better of the argument between the top 2 in the market.
If you put a gun to my head I’d probably come down on the side of Top Notch for 2 reasons: he’s 3 from 3 at Ascot and I’m sceptical about what Waiting Patiently actually beat at Kempton. But I’m no mug and understand that the northern fella is a serious talent and will have conditions in his favour.
Firstly its an Excellent race, i like top notch and waiting patiently both should run very well in the ryanair, i think top notch will win this though
If i could give the race to someone it would be cue card lol, is he capable of this? Hes been campaigned pretty well in comparison to a few of the tizzards, might be out of reach now, good to see brennan back on board though.
Coney island, connections seem to be swaying to the ryanair over the gc now as hes not the “finished article” yet, could be a good move, but if he won this well imo id find it hard to agree to send him to the ryanair.
Not a betting race for me, but if i was, at the prices id side with Frodon @8/1 Like i said I think top notch will likely win but 7/4 is short enough in this field.
the front 3 look really good.
My take on it is that I can’t see Cue Card winning. It’s all well and good to think that Cue Card may well snag third and pay 2/1 for the place but taking into account the losing part of the bet you are betting 1/2 your money.
On the other hand I decided to back Waiting Patiently at 7/2. If he loses, he loses, but if he wins, it means I can have three losers and still be slightly ahead over the four bets. With a return at 1/2 your money, if the next bet loses, you are down over the two bets.
I would rather just bet Cue Card to win if I fancied him. That way, if the old boy can still show them how it’s done, it buys you more bets going forward.
That’s just the way I think anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A bit of useless trivia for you all re. WP
I used to get the odd tip for Night in Milan now and again as the owner is local to me, and ironically i just moved into premises more or less across the road from them. I have heard he is a very “fishy guy mind you
Wishing them all the best, if they get within 5 lengths of Coney Island they have a serious horse
I wouldn’t want to be against the front two. After Waiting Patiently won impressively at Kempton, I thought good enough to be a serious player in the Ascot, Ryanair and Melling chases. Top Notch looks to have everything in his favour, though and is a proven grade one performer. No bet for me but a race that whets the appetite with the festival a month away.
There is an argument to say that the only time some of these have come up against a 165+ horse they have failed. Coney Island was downed by Our Duke, Top Notch couldn’t get past Yorkhill, Frodon was put in his place by Might Bite, Speredek was outgunned by Un De Sceaux and Waiting Paitentially has yet to face a rival so highly rated.
In Cue Card they once more face such a rival.
Top Notch did come up against Smad Place when he was rated 164 and hammered him…and Double Shuffle who is now rated 166 was no match…and importantly…Top Notch is an improving 7 year old, not declining 12 year old…
He’s also 5/5 going right handed so has never failed against a 165+ rated horse going that way round!
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