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Boots Sellafield?
You’ve lost me. Uranium and Plutonium accountancy was my bread and butter.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks for all your replies and input. Just to clear one thing up, Steve, I meant “complete ignorance” of the research work I have done on Nationals. For example, I have an individual description of how every horse ran in every renewal from 1836. On my forthcoming website I will be describing my attempt to rate the best performances as foolhardy, it’s just a minor, fun facet of the site, but at least I’ve tried.
Generally, I agree with everything you say, Ginger. I think Night Nurse went chasing quite late so is a similar case to Thistlecrack, about whom you make a good point, Steve. I got Thistlecrack wrong because I didn’t take into account his age. Age and number of runs have to be taken into account along with whether a horse is the type to make a better chaser. However, I still think the 10lb theory can help although applying it is part judgement and part luck – can never be sure how a horse will take to fences on its first few tries. It’s not simply a case of adding 10 to all hurdles figures, Steve.
I haven’t got time to do the race remotely properly, however, the 4.15 at Exeter tomorrow can be used as an example. There is one horse who hasn’t got an adjusted (chase) RPR, Ice Cool Champs. Just assuming, for expediency, that the other 6 run to their adjusted RPRs, the best is Cool Star Sivola’s 150 and he is 5/4F. Taking Ice Cool Champs, again for expediency let’s cast aside a woeful chase debut (clearly not his running) and any lingering doubts about Hobbs’s stableform. Trip and ground and class of race should be ok. The horse is 7 but has only had 6 runs and appears to be improving, presumably a chasing type. His best hurdles RPR is 134, won by 6L so may be worth a couple more plus a few more for continuing progression so could say 139. But even adding 10 to the 134 and adjusting from 12st for weight carried gives an adjusted potential/predicted RPR of 152. And the horse is 7/1. It’s a risky business but I’ve found enough of these win, often at longer odds than 7/1, to make a profit.
I wouldn’t eat that, stuff myself
Make your mind up, which is it?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I feel Coo Star Sivola is poor value at 5/4. No doubt he’s short because he was 3rd to Frodon, who took a big hike in perceived ability that day.
On balance I would probably give Ice Cold Champs one more chance at the 8/1 odds. Pure Vision might be one to fear getting 5lbs, from the Honeyball yard that could use a boost.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We agree on something then, ICC is worth a shot at the price. The world is harmonious, birds are singing in the trees. No doubt they will fall off their perches when it comes to the post-race analysis :)
GM, forthcoming website…whens it coming to our screens and what will it be providing?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Thanks for the interest, Jack. I’m hoping to have finished it by September 2020 at the latest, maybe sooner. Basically, it’s a year-by-year history with course changes, race facts and discussion for each year page. The race facts line for each of that year’s runners to contain a description of how ran. I’m typing up from hand written and have reached 1887. Then I have to compile indexes for horses, trainers and jockeys (with a sentence about each where possible in addition to their National records) plus a few other bits and pieces. When launched I’m hoping people will provide missing and extra information and respond to the discussions. I intend to continue researching. It’s a labour of love not a commercial venture.
Race fell apart a bit, novicey jumping from Ice Cool Champs. Would tentatively give Coo Star Sivola 148 to match best hurdles RPR and ICC 132, 10 BELOW best hurdles rating. Can’t be bothered to get into it more than that.
In fairness, CSS has run below par every time on Heavy (Frodon’s best surface), however, the Frodon race is working out well. Shantou Flyer upheld the form, Potters Legend got an RPR 20 higher next time, Casse Tete won nicely, Drumlee Sunset was a good 2nd today & CSS won. No way was Frodon overrated on that Cheltenham performance and that tends to suggest he ran better than rated in the Ascot Chase!
After bugling him for 18 months, was great to see Waiting Patiently do that the other Saturday. I absolutely adore him.
The form of the Ascot Chase could hardly have worked out any worse than it has. Cue Card pulled up and Frodon absolutely feeble in the RSA and Traffic Fluide thrashed in handicap company.
The official Handicapper raised Frodon 10 lbs out of the blue to 164 and already had him backed down 2 lbs for his previous run. Surely the shears will be taken to the 162 to sub 160 now. He’ll likely settle back near 155, after the hasty rise on the heads of one win in gutters.
Not great viewing for Waiting Patiently fans and perhaps it is very wise that he missed the RSA based on the showing of his old sparring partners.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Traffic Fluide has been on the downgrade all season. Frodon was never going to compete in the Ryanair. Cue Card hard a very hard race and hadn’t seemed to recover from it. I’m not sure the form of this race is ever going to look ‘good’.
Do you not think it was the fact that it was a high octane race, going at such a sustained fast pace from flagfall that stuffed the chances of CC and Frodon for Cheltenham?
I bet if Might Bite or Native River were turned out in the Bowl at Aintree (they won’t be and I would not be surprised if they were both put away for the season) they would run well below form.
There’s more to it than the one race though. If you look at Frodon, he’s been rated in the 150’s for a while, then mysteriously jumps into the mid 160’s. Trainer Paul Nicholls then states it is time to start looking for Grade 1 races for Frodon. Well he’s tried twice since that statement and the horse has been stuffed both times.
Frodon was 9/1 in the Ryanair and Cue Card 9/2, so they were not going in expected to run poorly. If we look at Cue Card he got a figure of 170 from the Racing Post last time and that was his best rating for ages. Cue Card is rated 166 on OR but that’s cobblers in my opinion. It’s the exact same rating as Native River for goodness sake.
Sometimes horses are just overrated. We saw Definitly Red jump way up and end up running in a Gold Cup at 8/1, rated a lb higher than the winner and just 2 lbs behind the runner up, yet he’s stuffed nearly 50 lengths. The trainer should have kept a low profile and went for the National.
I was on Waiting Patiently last time and had 8/1 on him winning the RSA. I am by no means confident he would have won the race after beating horses who have only looked good very occasionally of late.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, taking form literally without allowing for unknown factors, is the way to the poor house imo.
Cue Card was never going to run his race after what was a brutal fight – especially at his age – such a comparatively short time ago. Although I’m still unconvinced about Frodon either way, he’s well worth the benefit of the doubt for having played a major part in the Ascot Chase and risking recovery in time for the festival.
From my post on the Ryanair thread:
Anyway, I’ve no doubt at all that the others had a hard race – especially Cue Card – and maybe the winner was almost as gutted as the rest despite the way he travelled toward the last.
You use Definitly Red too as a marker in your argument. I’ve already bored everyone to death here with my views in just how far from the Cotswold Chase trainers should keep Gold Cup prospects. It’s a gut busting race from which it takes an awful long time to recover for most who win it or run prominently in it.
Even Saint Calvados managed to give himself a hard race at Warwick and was looking tired at the top of the hill on Tuesday.
One of the cleverest trainers at the festival this year was Ruth Jefferson, her real skill being shown by her decision not to run Waiting Patiently. The horse will get a long term benefit and I’ve no doubt he’s already top class, and, all being well, will prove it next season.
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