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“Waiting Patiently didn’t pull himself up Joe – he shied at the photographer who was just after the line.”
It was when he passed Cue Card that I thought he slowed dramatically. The jink was as he crossed the line and the photographer theory, from what I can find, was based on a highly speculative comment from the RUK summariser about a guy who looks to be holding up a phone. Hughes said the horse jinked for the exit gate.
Whatever the reason, it needs building in I think to future analysis. Hughes was hard on himself for hitting the horse “I wasn’t meant to hit him” which makes me think the horse might have some quirks which show under pressure. It might simply have been inexperience.
Hughes also felt he’d got there too soon yet the horse showed no signs of stopping at Kempton where he took it up well before the last and galloped straight to the line. In both previous runs, he edges right as he did yesterday and I wonder if that’s why they’ve concentrated on going right handed this season. Again, maybe something to consider when analysing his next race. Not so bad edging right when the rail is there. Doing a Might Bite up the hill is something else entirely.
Yesterday might have done the horse more good than they think. Winning on the bridle looks great but teaches a horse nowt, as Thistlecrack showed in the 2017 Cotswold.
I was discussing the visual impression of the race and taking into account the likelihood of Cue Card being back to his best at the age of 12 after a poor season to this point.
With Coney Island running so poorly and a less than personal best by some way from Top Notch it pretty much leaves Frodon as the horse to judge the race by.
Some have said this was the race of the season but the way it panned out it falls well short of being the race of the season as far as I am concerned.
There was always a danger coming into this race that a false impression may be given. If we look at Frodon and his new OR of 164 it makes it look like it might be decent form but it wasn’t long ago at all that Frodon’s previous rating of 152 was being used to devalue Might Bite’s form, so which figure do we believe?
We have seen all season that wide margin winners on heavy ground get awarded dubious looking ratings and some people (including trainers) seem to take those new figures as gospel. Paul Nicholls started looking for grade 1 races for Frodon after his 12 lbs rise from the official handicapper.
In yesterday’s race Frodon was given a RPR of 157, which is 16 lbs lower than his run in a handicap the time before that. Isn’t it just far more likely that the figure given for the win in the gutters is simply a misleading one by some degree?
The three runs before the 173 RPR gave Frodon on 160, 162 and 160. If we take those figures as a guide, Frodon has arguably run to within 3 lbs of the horse he was before receiving the inflated rating.
Top Notch has clearly run below form. If Cue Card had beaten a peak Top Notch by the margin he did, you could argue he was right back to something near his peak but Top Notch has run to a RPR of 155, which is 16 lbs below the 171 mark he received for beating Double Shuffle two runs ago.
If we were to give Cue Card anything like his best, we would need to take the view that Waiting Patiently has claimed him cosily despite a less than ideal jump at the last and an admission from the jockey that he went too soon. We risk giving the winner a false rating by some way.
That’s my thought process anyway.
I don’t see that Waiting Patiently needs it soft. He has only run on good ground once and looked fine on it. He was second to Cloudy Dream, who is consistent and no mug himself, in a Doncaster Novice Hurdle. They met on level terms but Cloudy Dream was 5YO to Waiting Patiently 4YO.
In that race Waiting Patiently came there travelling better but he seemed green and wandered as he hit the front, he must have been odds-on in running but his inexperience cost him and Cloudy Dream seemed to come across him slightly late on.
The main thing for me is that Waiting Patiently seemed to pick up perfectly well on the good ground and the pair were miles clear. I would not be worried about the ground and the trainer has said he is not ground dependent. I see little evidence to suggest he needs mud.
That race can be seen here:-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/909146/true
Paddy Power’s price for Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair keeps flip-flopping every few hours between 6/1 and 10/3 on oddschecker. This was something that went on with Unibet and Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle, ever changing from 8/1 to 3/1 all day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The winner is a brilliant horse, no taking that away from him, but the other two market leaders ran below their best and I can’t attribute that to the pace.
The form lacks the substance I’d anticipated but the winner is the real deal.
Rating races is a minefield. Look back at the Betfair Chase thread if you need persuading. Nobody can declare with confidence that a horse has run to a certain rating; we can only put our own points of view, which are heavily influenced by deep seated beliefs. One of my beliefs is that horses do not suddenly ‘not run their races’ due to ground or pace. If a horse is out of sorts and not in a position to run its race then the jockey should notice and pull the horse up. Otherwise, everything runs its race as best it can in the given circumstances. The fact those circumstances do not suit on the day does not mean a horse didn’t run its race.
Because Top Notch couldn’t keep up with the hot pace yesterday when the chips were down, it doesn’t mean he was off colour or didn’t run his race; it means he could not cope with what happened on the day. Same goes for Frodon. Same goes for Speredek. These horses could not finish what they started yesterday. In other circumstances (Cue Card being absent, perhaps), they’d have had a much better chance of still being in there at the finish. But yesterday, they could not cope.
Cue Card coped just fine. What figure he ran to I haven’t a clue but he mixed it with the other front runners and while they could not handle that come the business end, Cue Card could. He couldn’t keep up with Bristol De Mai at Haydock, but he ran as well as he could that day, the way the race panned out simply did not suit him, whereas yesterday it suited almost perfectly.
The point about Frodon is a fair one in that he’d been hovering within two or three pounds of 150 for a long time and then found a race that suited him perfectly and found himself suddenly rated 164. If that happens on a seasonal debut, it can be easier to accept as improvement over the summer. But Frodon has had a reasonably busy time this season and all at around a mark 10lbs lower. Then again, he’s only six and entitled to have improvement in him (Elgin, also 6, appeared to find 10lbs yesterday). And he beat another 164 horse in Top Notch yesterday. Maybe he is a 164 animal. We don’t know.
Handicappers are in a no win situation. Their job is to grade a horse with a view to trying to give an accurate measure of merit. But when something happens that appears to be out of the ordinary, they really need more evidence. Ideally, they’d be able to wait for another run or even two, but that’s not the way the system works. So they guess. Everyone who rates a race is guessing, especially one like yesterday which doesn’t conform to ideal pace maps etc.
And race rating is part of the enjoyment of the sport. It’s not one I’m into and never have been, that’s why I was so reluctant to put a figure to Bristol De Mai’s big performance. The only factual conclusion you can draw from any single race is that the conditions it was run under suited the winner better than the others.
One thing that always winds me up is this ‘He didn’t run his race’. What it actually means is that’ he didn’t run as I expected (therefore, since I’m seldom wrong, it was the horse that was wrong)’.
Agree with all that. Perfectly put. I’ve often felt that ratings are so often adjusted to meet pre conceived opinions too. I am less sure about your comment about Frodon because as you rightly say he was just six and also he beat quite a large field that surely couldn’t have all been unsuited by the ground
I also agree that this exciting horse can surely run fine on good or good to soft. Maybe it’s my eyes but he just doesn’t look like a heavy ground dependent horse. He was magnificent at kempton where it was officially gs but being kempton was probably not at all testing
I think how you feel about the way horses have performed can be just as if nit more so instructive than ratings. Cue card just seemed full of vigour yesterday and watching waiting patiently you are watching a horse that just cruises beautifully and yet still leaves the strong impression of real improvement to come. Weights and measures do not account for those impressions
I think it would be fair to say that Frodon is a 158/160 horse at his best and I reckon top notch is just about the same but both sightly under performed yesterday in my opinion. I’d say Frodon put in a solid 155 performance, therefore I’d give waiting patiently 18 pounds more for a 17.75 length victory, to have him on 173 and therefore Cue Card 170.
I think that is a very fair reflection of those horses current abilities.Initially I fully agreed with you. After rewatching the race 3 times I’d give all three of them an extra 3 lbs:
Frodon 158 – Cue Card 173 – Waiting Patiently 176That only because it was not only a G1 race, but a very decent one as well for the trip.
I still say many people are underrating yesterday’s ‘Race of the Season’. Do so at your peril.
Let’s take Frodon, rather than Cue Card, to give ballast to the form.
Frodon is effective on any going but very best on Heavy. His only hurdles run in France on Heavy produced his best French hurdles RPR. His best British hurdles RPR was on Heavy. By far his best chase RPR was achieved on his only British chase run on Heavy. The RPR of 173 for that run at Cheltenham is 100% sound.
So the only question is how far below that level did he run yesterday? The ground was only Soft, Frost erred in mixing it with Cue Card then leading from the 2nd to 4th. Yet the horse was one of only three there at the second last before weakening and not being given a hard time. A rating 10 below Cheltenham is more deserved than one 16 below, thus 163 not 157. (Did Top Notch really run 16 below his best? I think not, more like 10 below for 161 not 155).
And that fits with, as Tom Segal, those closest to the horse, etc. opine, that Cue Card was very near his 180+ best, thus 178 and Waiting Patiently 181.
Why are folk talking down the ‘Race of the Season’? Run at a ferocious pace it really was that good. The winner is young, progressive, unexposed, unbeaten over fences. Waiting Patiently passed the acid test and was in command at the finish. The evidence of the worth of performances in this race is clear to see, however, some just don’t want to. I’m beginning to wonder whether that’s because Waiting Patiently is not trained by a Henderson/Nicholls/Mullins/Elliott/Harrington.
There is no point taking the Tizzard’s input as Gospel. Everything is always Tickety-Boo in Tizzard Land.
We will see going forward but if one is to say that Racing Post Rating for Frodon previously is “100% sound” on 173, we also have to accept that his figure of 157 from the same people for yesterday’s race is “100% sound”
You can’t mix and match belief to suit yourself.
ONE race is never conformation of the reality. Flukes and misinterpretations will always occur. Spotting when that happens keeps you ahead of the pack.
I predicted Bristol De Mai being overrated and said the same about Frodon. The horses have been nowhere near the figures they were given.
Sizing John was given an RPR of 171 for winning the Gold Cup. Might Bite got 173 for the King George. It is nonsense to give Waiting Patiently ten pounds and eight pounds more than that for a race where he beat two horses who were well below their best and a horse who has been steadily declining of late.
Some very fertile imaginations at work I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think it would be fair to say that Frodon is a 158/160 horse at his best and I reckon top notch is just about the same but both sightly under performed yesterday in my opinion.
TWM, would have to disagree on this, I’d have Top Notch a fair few pounds ahead of Frodon….granted frodon probably needs softer ground to be at his best, he didnt see what way TN went at Ascot in NOV..Was very surprised by TN yesterday, but i wouldn’t give up on him yet for the Ryanair.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’d agree with those being a bit more on the cautious side ratings wise..
As has been said…Coney Island never got involved…and whether it’s looked on as an excuse or not it appeared to me Top Notch was a fair bit short of his win here in November…he didn’t look comfortable from a long way out and never seemed to get into the jumping rythmn he did when beating Double Shuffle and Frodon quite easily…no problem with Frodon running much better against Top Notch as Sean Bowen had him way too far back last time and by the time he made his effort Top Notch was away and gone…ridden more prominently he was always going to be closer to that rival….
That’s two of the top three in the betting not really showed…
The angle that the race was run at a ferocious pace to give the ratings more credit is an interesting one..
Comparing three races from the November meeting to yesterday time wise reveals the following..
Top Notch won in November in a time 10 seconds quicker than Waiting Patiently…
Lil Rockerfeller won the 2m 3 and a 1/2f hurdle 12 seconds quicker than Le Patriote…
Toviere won the 3m handicap chase 9 seconds quicker than Regal Encore…
I’m no time or sectionals expert but those three race times would suggest to me the going was obviously a bit slower than it was in November but it certainly wasn’t a startling performance time wise, or am I seeing something wrong?
Sizing John was given an RPR of 171 for winning the Gold Cup. Might Bite got 173 for the King George. It is nonsense to give Waiting Patiently ten pounds and eight pounds more than that for a race where he beat two horses who were well below their best and a horse who has been steadily declining of late.
Some very fertile imaginations at work I feel.
Couldn’t agree more.
I really like the horse, but for me Cue Card isn’t the horse he was, and rightly so he’s 12. If Hughes doesnt snatch the rail and check CCs momentum, he finishes closer for me. The way WP travelled through the race was super, did he have a lot more in the tank? I wouldn’t be 100% sure.
I dont see Frodon anywhere a G1 horse, his win previous was another BDM for me…great on the day, not form to set your clock by…
The ratings GM has mentioned, in my opinion are completely crazy. I am not saying he wont be that level of a horse, but for me, i like to be sure on form and horses, and yesterdays race wouldn’t make me sure hes ran to the figures youve come up with.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s not mixing and matching, Steve, the RP is generally fairly reliable but it’s got this race wrong.
A few quotes:
Coral odds compiler James Knight “Waiting Patiently isn’t far off being the best chaser in training”.
Paul Nicholls “Visually it looked a very well-run race…Cue Card was magnificent…well done to Colin Tizzard for getting him back to run that well…I was delighted with Frodon after he over-raced”.
Gordon Elliott “Cue Card…showed he retains plenty of ability”.
Tim Vaughan “lovely to see Cue Card bounce back to form. He ran his race”.
Charlie Deutsch “an absolutely brilliant run by Cue Card as he showed all his old zip”.If I’m crazy or over-imaginative then so are the above who are all inside the game.
Then we have the issue of pace/time. Always the best comparison is with races on the same card. Just using the race winners’ Topspeed Ratings those ratings are in chronological order: 75, 77, 107, 93, 157, 86, 46.
you will get poor quickly listening to Racing Insiders. How much crap has been talked by trainers this season alone?
Ex-Jockeys, trainers etc are often the worst tipsters in the game, they are clouded by self interest and sentimentality.
Cue Card’s owner is now aiming the horse at the Gold Cup. That’s his choice but I am willing to say now that it will end in failure and potentially disaster.
Joe says it’s hard to rate horses but if nothing else we have the figures for previous greats of the game and they can guide us as to when we stray into fantasy island territory.
Joe was reluctant to put a figure on Bristol De Mai and should really have stuck at that thinking, than putting 195 up for consideration. Previous champions easily showed that the notion of such a figure was completely out of the ball park.
We will know at Cheltenham who is correct and I will be shocked if my own thinking is way off the mark. In fact I would bet on it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Correction, Steve, I said rating individual performances was difficult. And in races that don’t conform to ‘standard’ pace or going conditions, I’d go so far as to say that trying to rate the individual performance is futile. It’s perfectly possible to give a horse a general, approximate rating, as the BHA tries to do, but only when sufficient evidence is available.
On Bristol De Mai, he’s the perfect example of the futility of assessing individual race ratings with a view to nailing the ability of a horse to within a pound or two. Here are his last 10 Racing Post Ratings: 164 151 182 172 147 158 157 170 162 156
Which most closely reflects the best he is capable of?
And on rating a race like The Betfair at Haydock, had Bristol De Mai not run and the others finished in the order that they did, and in the time they did, do you believe the winner and runner up would have received Racing Post Ratings of 125 and 115? Of course they wouldn’t, despite running to exactly the same level as they did in defeat.
We ought to just be able to enjoy and remember remarkable performances. It was remarkable to see a horse win a Grade 1 steeplechase by a history-making 57 lengths, and that’s what matters to me. I don’t give a toss what guesstimate figure the Post or Timeform or the BHA or anyone else decides to put to it.
And for me it was remarkable yesterday to see the 12-y-o (who had earned a 125 Racing Post Rating in the above mentioned race) burn off two smart horses half his age who had set out to burn him off. Remarkable and well worth celebrating without any need to rate it to the pound. And I won’t ever forget the one young horse who cruised up to the girth of the old champ with his jockey moving only his head to look behind. It was a great race. That’ll do fine for me. No maths required.
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