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Entries out, and priced up…..
Absolutely no bet here, one to enjoy, but I’d love to see a big run from La Bague Au Roi, and if I had to pick one out who looks overpriced, then maybe Drovers Lane around 12’s
I’m just about spitting feathers this morning. I had all but picked La Baque Au Roi
at 6/1 with Bet365 in the early hours of this morning. I even had him typed up on
the ante post competition thread, when I came across a piece in the Sportinglife, an
interview with Warren Greatrex on Monday. He spoke well of LBAR, who seems in good shape,
and although he didn’t nominate which race he would run in, the article had in bold above
the piece his price only for the Mildmay Novices Chase. Perhaps I’ve maybe read too much
into that, but I thought that maybe they had a handle on where the horse was headed. Got
up this morning only to discover that the same article now has “Latest News, Manifesto
target for La Baque Au Roi”. Perhaps it is the absence of Defi Du Seuil that changed
things, but I’m kicking myself.I hadn’t posted LBAR in the ante post thread, I just had it typed up ready to go, so I
changed to The Russian Doyen who I thought looked a bit big at 66/1. I didn’t fancy him to
beat Defi, and I don’t fancy him now to beat LBAR now either, but I think he has a squeak
at getting a place. He was well beaten by A Plus Tard in the Close brothers at Cheltenham
(but so was everything else) but he ran a decent enough race in 4th only weakening after
the last. It was soft at Cheltenham, I think it was very soft (nearly didn’t get the car
out of the car park without the tractor tow, which many needed). It’s g/s soft in places
at the moment at Aintree, but with only light rain forecast on Wed/Thurs, and dry Fri/Sat,
I don’t think it will be as testing as at cheltenham. He’s dropped to 50/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes
this morning (as short as 25s in a place) and I think that’s still not a bad E/W shout. I’m
still miffed about LBAR though
Only just noticed this thread!!
I know it may be considered as afer timing to some but I am already on LA BAGUE AU ROI (King’s Ring) at 9/2 and 4/1 and will probably have a few quid on a bigger priced one as cover tomorrow but this mare looks decidedly useful and avoided Cheltenham will probably turn out to be a good thing i time. ( I know Joe won’t think so considering the price he had her to win any race at Cheltenham)The outsider I have my eye on is Drovers Lane
I’m also on LBAR at 4s- 365 etc. left the price up for quite sometime after the announcement which i was surprised about.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s price was 6/1 with Bet365 at 2.30 this morning Jack, I know because I was about to bet him
when I read the report I mentioned above, I wish I hadn’t found it. So they had altered it in the
morning to the 4s you got. They seem to have made a bit of a howler in getting the odds wrong and
not adjusting it to fit the circumstances. By the time I got up, having been up pretty late, the
prices had gone and he was about 2/1. I can’t bring myself to go in on that having turned my nose
up at the 6s. I think I may live to regret it
Yes BigG have just spotted that.
They were very slow to cut her from 4s considering it was announced. Generally, 365 are very quick to act i find!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!La Bague Au Roi at 7/4 seems a good price to me. If she runs her race I can’t see her get beaten. Very impressive this entire season. Glen Forsa is a bit of unknown, but I think that race at Sandown fell apart a bit.
Her form lines with lostintranslation, topofthegame and santini are some of the strongest novice chase form about
And she comes here fresh
Very difficult to oppose her
3 massive bets for me in this race.
WIN LAY – LE BAGUE ROI @2.66
PLACE LAY – LE BAGUE ROI@1.7
3TBP LAY – LE BAGUE ROI@1.31I give this horse absolutely no chance today.
The race is an absolute graveyard for favourites for a start off. Kauto Star got turned over at 2/5 by our vic. Old dirty den(man) got beat twice in this race at evens and 5/4 f producing a fall and a 5th.
This really isn’t the race to be lumping on a ‘good thing’ according to history.No mare has won this race either.
The reason I am so against this horse today however is she isnt as good a horse in the spring months.
This horse has only been beaten 5 times in her career and all 5 of those came in either April or March.
Her form figures in March/April are
1776177
She is abysmal at this time of year. You could argue that she has actually won 2 races in april, the form figures show that.
But the first win was on her racecourse debut it was a class 6 mares only NHF race on the evening card. Basically 9t was a case of s very classy animal running against the lowest of the low trees. You cannot count this form.
The other april win cam in an abysmal 3 runner novice hurdle race round huntingdon.
She had over half a stone in hand on the 2nd horse according to OR but had to be really pushed out to win and ran well below form even though she won.Really is not a spring horse and this race isnt an open goal, it’s a grade 1 novice chase.
I’m all about the lays here but Kalashnikov must go close as must Harry frys, I have a sneaking suspision that skeltons horse will run a big race, cannons horse must not be ruled out and Elliots also has a chance here.
Any of the other 5 can win this, the race is wide open and Le Bague Roi must be taken on here.
It’s a huge surprise to me if she can win today.
Take out those 2 absolute open goal races and her form figures in March april are
77677
She must get beaten come on guys.
Kauto or Denman never ran in this race – presume you are thinking about the Bowl
Personnally think she will hack up and 13/8 7/4 is a great price
Of course you are right there, silly me. The bet certainly isnt based on whether or not kauto and denman got beat here which they clearly didnt.
She is not a grade 1 racehorse in the spring. Case closed. More likely to be last than first.
Some horses dont have any preferences for time of year but some are completely different animals depending on the time of year and LBR is clearly the latter.
You are backing LBR on her non spring form if you price her up for this race using only her March and april form then she isnt even a 100/1 shot she is worst than that.
Am already on LBAR as previously stated and have backed Mengli Khan at 8/1 each way cos the Cheltenham form looks good behind two very good horses!!
The media and trainer has sold Le Bague Au Roi as being a horse who doesnt like cheltenham but even though she did get beaten twice at Cheltenham festival 7th and 7th beaten a total of 29 lengths in those two races.
Her 2 runs at aintree in april she was 6th and 7th beaten a total of 29 1/2 lengths.
In her 5 spring defeats she has been beaten a total of 91 1/2 lengths.
I think everybody is in denial if they think she stands a chance. I would strongly advise everyone to cash out now if you are on her.
If I see her win today then I will need to pinch myself to make sure I’m not dreaming.
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