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The fan in me is disappointed; the punter in me is happy enough..Full steam ahead for Petit Mouchoir
Now one thing that we can say without a moments hesitation is that Melon is Willie Mullins’ horse for the Supreme. He may go mob-handed but as we know thus far, Melon will be his number one and therefore the mount of Ruby Walsh. Now then, who their other top novice would be is up for some debate, although market vibes, form in the book and visual impressions tell us Cilaos Emery is right up there. On debut, despite looking a tiny wee thing, he winged his hurdles, travelled like a dream and thumped a more than useful type in Joey Sasa. Looking at his action you can only assume better ground will improve him. My guess would be that Cilaos Emery is a very good horse in his own right and were Melon not around, he’d be the number one.
Now, Willie usually sends his better novices to the Deloitte. Circumstances surrounding the timing of Melon’s debut meant that has presumably come too soon for him; therefore no entry. Cilaos Emery however IS entered, and is fully expected to line up for his festival prep. If either he or Melon are half the horses we’re led to believe they are then there’s no chance we’ll see them square off in six weeks, meaning there’s a Cilaos Emery shaped hole in the Neptune for Willie Mullins. 365 are 25/1 NRNB, monster price IF he makes it here
I think this is a good spot Boz, have joined you at 25/1 NRNB.
I honestly reckon that Lets Dance and Saturnas are Willies two horses for this race. Lets Dance now rated 147 so with The Mares Allowance she is right up there with Finains Oscar. Saturnas is also being aimed at this; remains to be seen just how good he is but he was good over Xmas at 2 miles; think he has an entry for the Deloitte so it will be interesting to see how he does there..
You’re talking about Chateau Conti? He’s recorded a higher RPR than Melon has. Still needs to find about half a stone but he’s definitely in with a shout. I’d far rather back him than Melon at the prices. He needs to run again though.
If chateau and melon were the same price – knowing what we know and have seen,which would you back? The question is open to everyone
Which ever one Ruby rides
The only horse that can beat my 500/1 Champion hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir runs today and I dont wish the horse harm but it would be great to see ‘Buvair d’air’ run like a pig.
500/1? wow. I thought I was doing well getting in at 10s..
He’ll probably run but don’t think he will do anything. Of Wylies 3 Novice Hurdlers Crack Mome looks better than Invitation Only and Battleford.
Riccis best 3 probably Senewalk, Let’s Dance and Turcagua. Senewalk is probably done for the season and Turcagua ain’t gonna get near Monalee or Death Duthy… Let’s Dance the most likely Novice Hurdle winner for Ricci.
Outiside of Ricci and Wylie there’s still Melon, Chateu Conti, Bunk Off Early, Cilaos Emery and Saturnas.
Anyone wishing to have a punt on this should just back Whisper at 10s NRNB, forget about the Mullins merry go round and sit back and watch as all the opposition gets re routed to other races. You’ll be sat on a stress free 10/1 ticket thats probably gonna be half that on the day. Entered in the R.S.A. but i think he’ll never make the hill at top pace so the J.L.T it is.
Does he need soft ground though?
I’d be careful with Saturnas. He’s stepping up in trip for his next run and his connections have said they’re aiming for a The Neptune. That of course could easily change if Willie decides he’s a Supreme horse.
I’m a massive Faugheen fan but my head is telling me to back Petit Mouchoir at 5/1 NRNB with Paddy Power. I would have liked to at least seen Faugheen race before I go ploughing into him at 6/4. Even if he turns up, and I really believe he will, do you go with the horse that hasn’t run in 14 months at 6/4 (or god knows what price on the day) or do you side with the Match Fit horse at 5/1…. if Faugheen was to pull out then PM would be 3/1 or 5/2 on the day and I would have missed the boat. Think I’ll sit tight for the moment
Having read every post in this thread I have backed ADO in a few multiples but I’m really concerned about the bleed. The RSA is a slog of a race and if a horse bleeds once it’s very likely to happen again if he’s put under too much stress and stress is exactly how I’d describe this race.
I backed Bellshill to win any race at the festival at 8/1 back in October. I think his price is way too short here based on form anyway. The horses he has beaten would probably give him a rating in the mid 140’s which isn’t good enough for him to be priced so much lower than Coney Island and even Our Duke (before he came out of the picture). I’m not 100% convinced by Might Bite either.
What about Bleu Et Rouge? Could he go here? That Arkle at Leopardstown was way too fast for him and when he beat Gangster (rated 148) in a 2 mile 3F race over Xmas he was staying on very strong and looked like he had plenty more. Was very surprised they ran him in the 2 miler (probably just a reaction to losing Min). Maybe with Coney Island in the race JP might want him in the JLT but Willie will know that he won’t get passed Yorkhill. Might be worth a small e/w for RSA at 33/1? Think this will be a good race.
With my ADO multiples and the Bellshill any race bet I was gonna park it but have a feeling Bleu Et Rouge could do well here. Then again I’d say if we were sure he was going here the price would probably be shorter
Have her at 33s for the Neptune so was devastated when Ricci seemed to be hinting at Albert Bartlett. They have 4 really good Novice Mares in the Mullins yard; Airlie Beach, Asthuria, Augusta Kate and Let’s Dance. they cant all go to the Mares Novice; it seems Augusta Kate and lets Dance need a bit of a trip and The mares Novice is 2 mile 1F, I think which will suit Airlie Beach. In fact that would be my banker of the festival if she turns up there.
They have Vroum Vroum or Limini for The Mares Hurdle so I think Augusta Kate and Lets Dance are Neptune/Albert Bartlett targets. Was hoping it would be Lets Dance Neptune and Augusta Kate Albert Bartlett but I heard somewhere Augusta Kate could miss the festival and go to Aintree.
Does Ricci have any obvious entry for the Neptune? I cant think of any as good as Let’s Dance? Turcagua, Koshari, Fullham Road etc are nowhere near good enough and I think Senewalk has been put away for the year but I’m not sure if that was confirmed..
As someone who has Melon to win any race at the festival at 16/1 I think he did enough today to keep the dream alive. Would like to see him again though, before the supreme
It makes it more interesting and there will be better prices available on Thistlecrack on the day which is good for the race. He will be tested again in the Gold Cup. I have Djakadam at 16s e/w and Don Pole at 33s e/w. If the heavens open on Thursday evening then I think they have a chance.
Thistlecrack is still definitely the best horse in the race but his jumping will need to improve and I think it will. That experience today will do him the world of good. I dont but the “bubble is burst” talk…
Definitely, just not a horse I want to back. A – don’t know for sure he’s going to run. If Douvan gets injured, he runs in the Queen Mum. B – I don’t know how good he is over 2m 5f (on the new course, which could kill his stamina)
Can you explain the significance of the new course?
He has run 3 miles so I’d say the trip wont be a problem. You are definitely correct that if Douvan gets sick then he’s in the CC but otherwise he should turn up here
Completely agree stilvi. I can see Mullins having a less successful Cheltenham than he has had in recent years. 7/8 winners of late has been fantastic but the bubble will eventually burst, it always does. I think he will have 2/3 winners and a string of seconds.
It’s funny because 2/3 winners at the festival is something most trainers only dream of. For Willie it’s considered disappointing. Will be interesting to see if there is a market for Willie Mullins winners at the festival. I reckon he will have at least 6 and am willing to put some cash down.. What price do you think I’d get on 6 or more winners?
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised with 6 mate. Who are your six out of interest?
CH – Faugheen
CC – Douvan
JLT – Yorkhill
Mares – VVM
Ryanair – Un De Sceaux
1 Handicap win somewhereDouvan – CC
Yorkhill – JLT
Faugheen – CH
Limini – Mares
Vroum Vroum Mag – Stayers
Airlie Beach – Mares Novice HurdleThink they are the most likely 6.
After that he has 3 decent shouts that will likely go off favourite or second favourite;
Bellshill – RSA
Un De Sceaux – Ryanair
Min – ArkleThen he has the following
Crack Mome/Melon/Cilaous Emery/Bunk off Early – Supreme
Saturnas/Lets Dance – Neptune
Augusta Kate/Penhill – Albert Bartlett
Bapaume/Meri Devie – Triumph
Getabird/Carter McKay/Ballyward – Champion Bumper
Haymount for the 4 milerMassive strength in Depth..
Haven’t even mentioned Djakadam but if something happens to Thistlecrack then he comes into the mix too..
Think he will have 6 winners at the very least
Completely agree stilvi. I can see Mullins having a less successful Cheltenham than he has had in recent years. 7/8 winners of late has been fantastic but the bubble will eventually burst, it always does. I think he will have 2/3 winners and a string of seconds.
It’s funny because 2/3 winners at the festival is something most trainers only dream of. For Willie it’s considered disappointing. Will be interesting to see if there is a market for Willie Mullins winners at the festival. I reckon he will have at least 6 and am willing to put some cash down.. What price do you think I’d get on 6 or more winners?
