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I think Sceau Royal might give Yanworth a fright tomorrow. Would have to write his last run off but his form before that is very good and he’s had a nice break.
The obvious horse for this race is un de sceaux. Surely the owners would prefer to win the champion hurdle than the Ryanair. It’s really his only chance to win one of the big 4 Cheltenham races.
Dont think he’d be quick enough.
Sorry, Vautour, but you can’t pull it off :/
Especially not after you said Broken Soul is a mid 150s horse! LOLOL
Not quite; said he could be. He beat Sutton Place who based on form is now a mid 150s horse. It’s all guessing but you can’t get it right all the time. Obviously, with Broken Soul, he’s nowhere near 150 now but we only have the two Hurdle runs to go off. If he turns out to be anywhere north of 150 then you’d have to think Melon has a great shout based on that line of form
High Bridge won nicely there. Gives Glaring a nice form boost, who was taken out of both engagements this weekend. Again, I’m guessing, because of the ground.
LOL
Bunk off early into 13s from 30s yesterday for this, what would he be if he wins tomorrow?
If he wins tomorrow he’ll probably close omer in the Neptune market
Furthermore; if Sutton Place is rated in the mid to high 150’s (Let’s just say 155 to be conservative) then Broken Soul mustn’t be far away from that mark. If that’s the case then Melon has to be at the very least half a stone better than Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar, who are both around the 155 mark based on their form.
The only unknown is Charli Parcs; hard to judge his form because he’s a juvenile and a very good one but it’s hard to see a 4 year old running to a 160 mark.
I also realise that 155 is a great mark for the Supreme; think Vautour ran off 155 in his Supreme so I’m not knocking Neon Wolf or Finians Oscar; both are good enough to win a Supreme. I just get the feeling that Melon might be special.
Obviously the ratings aren’t as reliable because Novices tend to improve but it seems to me that the best novice is with the best trainer and best jockey. A worthy favourite but if you’re not on before now he’ll be way too short for you plus bookies will have deals to encourage you to take him on
I’m on Melon for this and I do understand people’s concerns. I invested at 16s to win any race back in October when word got out that he was the best Novice in the yard. The trends of Willie dominating the race over the past four years was enough for me; it took Altior to break his grip on it and I don’t think I’ve seen an Altior type amongst the Novice division this year.
Melons one run doesn’t tell us much. It tells us he travels well, jumps well, quickens when needed and was a bit dodgy on the last two fences.
He beat Broken Soul by 10L. Broken Soul, in his previous Hurdle, beat a horse called Sutton Place by 4L. Having finished behind Broken Soul he went on to win his next 4 races; 1 bumper and 3 hurdles. In his latest win he gave 5 lbs to Supasundae and beat him by 7L. Supasundae is rated 146 and finished ahead of Petit Mouchoir and Bellshill in last years Supreme.
When Sutton Place beat Supasundae by 7, while giving him 5lbs, he also gave 9 lbs to a 143 rated horse and beat him by 12. Sutton Place is definitely in the 150’s based on that which puts Broken Soul on a similar mark. Melon then beats Broken Soul on the bridle by 10L. Think it’s fair to say we have a good horse on our hands here.
Happy to be in the Melon camp on 16s. Obviously he’s short for a horse who has only run once.
Dont think Lets Dance will go Mares Novice. Airlie Beach has that covered; Lets Dance likes further than 2 mile 1 F
Just saw that. Beat a 130 rated horse by 20 Lenghts, a 129 rated horse by 30 Lenghts and a 125 horse by 36 Lenghts. Where did that run come out of? He has been spanked by Penhill and Death Duty earlier in the season; that’s some improvement. I was thinking that Ricci would have Lets Dance in this; probably not now…
Saturnas is being aimed at The Neptune so you would think this would be a good prep race for him..
Consul De Thaix to win betfair hurdle in impressive fashion and go to the head of the supreme market. Get on now lads
Has never won a race and doesn’t have course form. Need more than a win in a grade 3 this weekend to go on..
Dont understand why they would even consider stepping douvan up
For one reason and one reason only…To win The Gold Cup
I think this race is probably the easiest win. The Arkle will be much tougher.
If he is not being schooled for Hurdles now then I’d say there’s no chance he will turn up in the Champion Hurdle. Surely if he was being schooled for Hurdles that would be out and the markets would reflect it? Maybe I’m wrong
My guess is he stays over fences and it’s either here or The Arkle. Personally, I think his jumping isn’t good enough for the Arkle but he is definitely quick enough and has the class. Willie will want the win and with that in mind I’d say he’ll stay here. If Willie thinks he can win The Arkle with Yorkhill and the JLT with Bleu Et Rouge or American Tom I think he could come away with neither.
They are obviously schooling Yorkhill to jump fences. I cant see them changing their prep now to put him over hurdles. Here’s my prediction..
Supreme – Melon, Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early
Arkle – Yorkhill
Champion Hurdle – Vroum Vroum Mag, Footpad, Nichols Canyon
Mares Hurdle – LiminiNeptune – Saturnas, Lets Dance, Cilaos Emery
RSA – Haymount
Champion Chase – Douvan
Champion Bumper – Getabird, Ballyward, Carter McKayJLT – Bellshill
Ryanair – Un De Sceaux
Stayers – Shaneshill, Clondaw Warrior
Mares Novice – Airlie Beach, AsthuriaTriumph – Bapaume, Meri Devie
Albert Bartlett – Augusta Kate, Battleford
Gold Cup – DjakadamI was sure he’d have at least 6 winners; I’d say that he will be lucky to get 4 now. Maybe he will leave Yorky in the JLT and Bellshill in the RSA; if he does that I think he is guaranteed at least one win from the two. If he goes Arkle & JLT he has a good chance at winning neither.
