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Racing Post reporting O’Leary could be tempted by handicap options for Tombstone at the festival.
Elliot was all over it at the betfair preview night. mentioned him a few times that he would like to go the handicap route and then butted in when someelse mentioned Tombstone that he could guarantee it would go the handicapping route
Do you have any notes from the Betfair Preview?
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it. I think Movewiththetimes also looks nice.
Do you not think Broken Soul will rock up with a rating of 150?
Whisper going RSA
Have you any idea what to make of the last race on the first day? Close Brothers Novice Handicap?
Think Bouvreuil and Another hero are good shouts; will follow you in on that. Have Yorky at 3s for The JLT so I’ve no interest in anything else there.
Tend to agree on Peace & Co also. What you make of Ivanovic Gorbatov? I smell a rat there. Think he’s acting up to get a good mark for The County also
Going with Martello Tower in the 4 miler and The Druids Nephew in the Ultima
seems to be settled in a few days of rain a few days of dry – raining/blustery now. After today forecast is for dry till weekend then more rain. Its more what the weather does 2-3 days before weekend of 11-12th as the forecast is only accurate for that time span given I’ve lived round here for longer than I care to remember !
Thanks for that. Keep us updated
I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.
Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.
Neptune
Bacardys
Saturnas
KemboyMares Novice
Airlie Beach
AsthuriaI agree i thought the neptune with her allowance would be a certainty, they seemed so sure that a step up was needed
But ricci all but confirmed it aswell this morning, and yesterday during the day he said that airlie would have it all to do if she turned up
Still not the end of the world! Lets dance might not be as effective coming back with airlie tanking along at the front! Im not confident though!!
There’s still hope, I think. Both Willie and Rich both said that it looks like the Mares Novice but they both qualified that by saying they will be keeping their options open. Willie will want to keep his absolute best novices apart. While it has been tough to figure out who the best novices are I think you have to assume that Lets Dance and Bacardys are both around the 147 mark so with the Mares allowance Lets Dance is the better horse. I think that Ruby will want to ride the 4 best novices in the 4 novice races and he will have his say. Of the 4 best novices I think 3 of them are Mares and if I was Ruby I’d want the following rides
Melon – Supreme
Lets Dance – Neptune
Airlie Beach – Mares Novice
Augusta Kate – Albert BartlettRuby got his way last year when he managed to keep Yorkhill and Min separated; he got his way when he managed to keep Vautour and Faugheen separated. What’s the bets he gets his way again and gets Airlie Beach and Lets Dance separated? That £50K bonus does change things but it will be interesting to see how it pans out
I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.
Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.
Neptune
Bacardys
Saturnas
KemboyMares Novice
Airlie Beach
AsthuriaWillie Mullins on Melon
“He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.”
No word on American Tom or Arctic Fire? I thought I saw somewhere that Arctic Fire got an entry for the County Hurdle? Disapponted that Ballyward isn’t included?
Just been flicking through Oddschecker and loads of Mullins horses being shortened. Do these people think he has a god given right to rack up winners at every Festival? There are going to be a lot of very poor punters should he have a blow out.
Who cares if Limini is supplemented? She shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough, even in a bad year. If he is to be believed the trainer didn’t even think she could beat Apple’s Jade. Her jumping in the early stages was scruffy at best. That won’t work in any Champion Hurdle.
How good a yardstick is Apple’s Jade? It strikes she has never come close to recapturing last year’s spark.
Id be pretty sure limini wont win this, purely interested from a laying perspective and his horses are shortening because of the media day at his stables, he confirmed runners for certain races and gave his list of 34 runners at cheltenham with the possibillity one or two more might turn up
Where can we find that list?
Agree with that assessment, ham. It’s all eyes on Ruby for this.. You sort of get the feeling that Ruby isn’t sure who the best Novice Hurdler is. He picked Saturnas over Bunk Off Early in the Delloitte but there was definitely something wrong with Saturnas that day.
Is Ballyandy the best English trained horse in this? Neon Wolf looks like he’s going to The Neptune unless the ground is soft; I’d say Charli Parcs will go Triumph and Finians Oscar, who’s form is also questionable, will probably go to The Neptune also..
The best Irish Novices in terms of form in the book are Death Duty, Monalee, Airlie Beach and Lets Dance; none of them are quick enough for a Supreme and will probably go to the Albert Bartlett, Neptune or Mares Novice.
Whoever Ruby Walsh is on will go off favourite. If Melon is as good as the hype suggests then he’s a worthy favourite. Unfortunately for us punters we have nothing to go on apart from that one run. If Melon is not as good as the hype suggests, and Ruby picks Bunk Off Early, then the winner could come from anywhere
Vautour, if ever you want to mention a non-Willie Mullins horse, please make sure you do it in capital letters so we also notice it. Cheers.
I have been known to stray away from the Mullins yard from time to time but it has served me well in the past
Non-Mullins money singles
Petit Mouchoir (5s) for The Champ Hurdle and, in the spirit of the forum, Alpha Des Obeaux (16s) for the RSA, Death Duty (9/4) for the Albert Bartlett, Charlie Parcs (4s NRNB) for Triumph, Monalee (14s) for The Neptune
Mullins money singles
Melon (14s) to win any race, Crack Mome (20s) for Supreme, Lets Dance (33s) for Neptune, Limini (7/2) for Mares, Airlie Beach (10/3) for Mares Novice, Shaneshill (16s) and VVM (5s NRNB) for Stayers, Djakadam (14s) for Gold Cup, Yorkhill (3s) for JLT, Ballyward (12s) for Champ Bumper, Augusta Kate (14s) for Albert Bartlett, Un De Sceaux (7/2) for The RyanAir
Dead money singles
Min (4s) for Arkle,
Saturnas (20s) for Neptune
Cause of Causes (25s) for Ultima
Bellshill (8s) to win any race
Champagne Fever (16s) to win any race
Kilulltagh Vic (10s) to win any raceAlso have a number of combos that are goosed thanks to Annie Power and Min
Limini to The Mares and Vroum Vroum to the Stayers. Think Ricci should sit The Champion Hurdle out. Has a much better chance of getting two wins with the above; Vroum vroum would have to be back to her best to compete with Unowhatimeanharry.
The perils of ante-post betting. Those who backed it at juicy prices months ago must be tearing their hair out.
Maybe I’m pushing too hard with the conspiracy theories but perhaps the fact that it got beat last time, they looked at that race and thought the gold cup is over two furlongs further, and it’s got no chance of getting up the hill?
Doubt that. The horse that beat him is dead and the rest were a good way back. I’d say he’s really injured.
Never considered Limini for this but then again nobody knows what form she’s in. I guess we’ll know tomorrow; shed have to beat Apples Jade impressively; stranger things have happened
Cue Card wins and so begins the comment bombardment of how Thistlecrack destroyed him at Kempton.
I think he will win also, 11 year olds in the race dont usually perform, but this is definitely an unusual year, if he runs to 170, who beats him??
It’s a different race to most. I cant see an eleven year old winning a race like this. I can see Sizing John, Native River and Djakadam all in a line turning for home with Native River trailing off coming to the last and Sizing John outstaying Djakadam up the hill.
