- This topic has 614 replies, 63 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Fair play to the King horse but I wouldn’t be touching this one at cheltenham personally
Very often appearances are deceptive… I advise to watch Christmas Hurdle, just assume Yanworth have has fallen 2 out (moment where he was staying again after being off the bridle) and try to think where this horse would have finished having not fallen… (we all know the fact that Yanworth stayed really well and won going away from The New One). Abut ChP we don’t know, we can just guess…I just know it was about 20lb difference between ChP and MBE on their penultimate performance.
This year’s Supreme doesn’t look the strongest event, seeing Ballyandy as a third horse in the betting 5/1, Melon as a fav, I don’t want watch this race haha. I hope ground won’t be too quick and Neon Wolf will go here. I haven’t backed him, but like this horse much.It was more plausable that a stayer like yanworth would need bumped along to stay on best to win,he had form in the book before the christmas hurdle and we all knew he was a “stayer” at that point, all the vibes with CP were speed speed speed…. fact of the matter is he was being chased along yesterday to try and challenge MBE 2 out, where as MBE hadnt been touched yet……the first time they met it was the opposite, that can only mean two things , either CP didnt run his race yesterday (entirely possible) or MBE had simply progressed from the first meeting (entirely possible) thats not to say that CP wont end up a better horse with more experience….. but he was beaten yesterday even if he stood up and that reflects in his price now, i cant definitely say he wouldnt have won, but its highy more likely he wasnt going to win, he would have had to produce a blistering finish to get near MBE
And yes it is a week supreme i would be very surprised if an altior,min,bueveur dair came out of this bunch, everytime one runs it disappoints
ham, we are all entitled to our opinions but we cannot categorically say CP was beaten. He may well have been but we’ve all watched enough racing to know what should win doesn’t always win and vice versa.
ham, we are all entitled to our opinions but we cannot categorically say CP was beaten. He may well have been but we’ve all watched enough racing to know what should win doesn’t always win and vice versa.
Even if he had won it would still have been a very disappointing relative to his previous start. Everyone thought he was slick and quick and now suddenly he is a stayer?
It’s not charli parcs fault he’s been overhyped.
Melon is another talking horse but he comes from a stable that has dominated the supreme in recent years so they must at least have some idea where they are with the horse.
As for the notion that the supreme is a weak race, well for once saying that a race is a “weak renewal” just seems like an easy cliche for me, and secondly apart from charli parcs (who might well have run in the triumph anyway) what are the horses who have disappointed? can you name any other specific examples?
you’ve got melon who could be anything, moon racer, ballyandy who is a bumper winner and impressively won the betfair, and so on.
I won’t be studying the form for this until the afternoon before but Moon Racer: goes well fresh, previous festival form, does what’s needed to win.
It’s not charli parcs fault he’s been overhyped.
Melon is another talking horse but he comes from a stable that has dominated the supreme in recent years so they must at least have some idea where they are with the horse.
As for the notion that the supreme is a weak race, well for once saying that a race is a “weak renewal” just seems like an easy cliche for me, and secondly apart from charli parcs (who might well have run in the triumph anyway) what are the horses who have disappointed? can you name any other specific examples?
you’ve got melon who could be anything, moon racer, ballyandy who is a bumper winner and impressively won the betfair, and so on.
Capitaine
Crack mome
Cilaos emery
Chateau conti
Charli parcs
Saturnas
senewalkTo name a few, some lf whom were favourites
Moon racer -8 year old hasnt been seen since november beating a horse whos since been beaten 64 lengths 27 lengths and 18 lengths
Ballyandy won a very tame betfair and was weighted to win, was beaten prevoiusly by messire des obeaux, who has since bene beaten also
Melons only won a maiden, second was turned over at 1/3 beaten by a distance
Ruby will probably go on bunk off early if he sticks to the way he has been picking recently, graded form in the book which bunk off early has melon dosent, if he did end up on melon then yes id be inclined to agree that they seem to think highly of him
If you look at the race last year or the year before at this point then its extremely week in comparison
Could have just been exceptional years though
Agree with that assessment, ham. It’s all eyes on Ruby for this.. You sort of get the feeling that Ruby isn’t sure who the best Novice Hurdler is. He picked Saturnas over Bunk Off Early in the Delloitte but there was definitely something wrong with Saturnas that day.
Is Ballyandy the best English trained horse in this? Neon Wolf looks like he’s going to The Neptune unless the ground is soft; I’d say Charli Parcs will go Triumph and Finians Oscar, who’s form is also questionable, will probably go to The Neptune also..
The best Irish Novices in terms of form in the book are Death Duty, Monalee, Airlie Beach and Lets Dance; none of them are quick enough for a Supreme and will probably go to the Albert Bartlett, Neptune or Mares Novice.
Whoever Ruby Walsh is on will go off favourite. If Melon is as good as the hype suggests then he’s a worthy favourite. Unfortunately for us punters we have nothing to go on apart from that one run. If Melon is not as good as the hype suggests, and Ruby picks Bunk Off Early, then the winner could come from anywhere
Agree with that assessment, ham. It’s all eyes on Ruby for this.. You sort of get the feeling that Ruby isn’t sure who the best Novice Hurdler is. He picked Saturnas over Bunk Off Early in the Delloitte but there was definitely something wrong with Saturnas that day.
Is Ballyandy the best English trained horse in this? Neon Wolf looks like he’s going to The Neptune unless the ground is soft; I’d say Charli Parcs will go Triumph and Finians Oscar, who’s form is also questionable, will probably go to The Neptune also..
The best Irish Novices in terms of form in the book are Death Duty, Monalee, Airlie Beach and Lets Dance; none of them are quick enough for a Supreme and will probably go to the Albert Bartlett, Neptune or Mares Novice.
Whoever Ruby Walsh is on will go off favourite. If Melon is as good as the hype suggests then he’s a worthy favourite. Unfortunately for us punters we have nothing to go on apart from that one run. If Melon is not as good as the hype suggests, and Ruby picks Bunk Off Early, then the winner could come from anywhere
Finian’s Oscar’s form might be questionable but it is a lot less questionable than others, most notably Melon. If you really wanted to you could pick holes in them all.
I would suggest it is quite likely that Charli Parcs will be going nowhere. Once the dust settles I would expect Henderson to realise that was no sort of preparation for an even bigger challenge. Either a confidence booster or Aintree would seem much more realistic options. The first thing would be to establish why he regressed so much from his previous run.
My first thought on reflection was that if Charli Parcs had not run in the Adonis and we had used Master Blueyes as collateral form, we would have been looking at Charli Parcs as a very skinny favourite for the Supreme.
In their previous meeting, Charli Parcs put the race to bed in a matter of strides with three hurdles still to take. On Saturday he just never travelled at all. I felt the horse actually did well to battle back into it and Nicky Henderson commented afterwards that it was as if the horse had suddenly started travelling better.
You can’t say he would have won, Master Blueyes was going better, but sometimes these things can be deceptive, with a faller leaving extremely tired horses falling backwards rapidly to make the winner look like he was Nijinsky coming away from them.
You can’t say Charli Parcs was over-hyped, it was impossible not have been taken with his previous race and it was a case that he either beat trees or was highly promising. We know he didn’t beat donkeys that day and on balance I cannot buy into Master Blueyes having improved enough to accept Charli Parcs had run his race in the Adonis. It is not as if Charli Parcs ran a similar style of race and was simply outgunned. We could see from a long way out that this was going to be a battle for him.
The Racing Post raised Master Blueyes 18 lbs on their ratings for the Adonis win, the new mark of 141 ironically may be correct because they were way off the mark with their previous figure of 123 in my opinion. His official mark was 133, so that’s a big difference of opinion. Somewhat bizarrely the Racing Post has Charli Parcs down as running just 1 lb below his previous rating for falling in Adonis. It seems highly unlikely given the 180 degree turn in the style of his two runs that he was running just 1 lb differently in form terms.
Alan King felt that he didn’t have a Triumph Hurdle contender in Master Blueyes but now he does. I would tend to believe that his first instinct may be the correct one. We have often seen trainers beguiled by media reaction and Smad Place in the Gold Cup was as good an example of a goose becoming a swan through the rose-tinted media lens.
It’s an uninspiring Supreme for me. Moon Racer is living on the Betfair Hurdle form in my opinion. I feel the novices were campaigned to get good marks for a big cash prize. The older opposition was uninspiring in that race, hence the money for the younger and less experienced animals.
Will Melon be a Vautour or a Douvan? I have to say it is doubtful and at 3/1 he was silly value.
Neon Wolf at 16/1 would appeal to me as value but will he run here or the Neptune? If it were soft I would think they may feel Finian’s Oscar has the stamina for the Neptune and that could mean a redirect. Like many races, we are probably not going to find out until late in the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Willie Mullins on Melon
“He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.”
^^
Welcome back Steve.Yes Ginge I’ll go along with that….Just so long as we dont have anymore meltdowns eh Steve?.Nobody should question your ability as a judge of horseflesh and I’ve always like your style of writing,there’s humour in that wisdom.Lets hope you can help us find those elusive Cheltenham winners.
Willie Mullins on Melon
“He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.”
Music to my ears
Willie Mullins on Melon
“He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.”
Music to my ears
Worth noting that while he said something along those lines regarding melon (not exactly), he also said that he would not be surprised if crack mome or cilaos emery improved enough to come close IF NOT win…
Willie Mullins on Melon
“He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.”
Music to my ears
Worth noting that while he said something along those lines regarding melon (not exactly), he also said that he would not be surprised if crack mome or cilaos emery improved enough to come close IF NOT win…
Dosen’t bother me if Crack Mome wins. If you read my posts from 2 months ago you’ll know im heavily involved in Crack Mome (50s and 25s A/P 10s and 16s NRNB) and Melon (25s A/P 10s NRNB and 9s NRNB). Crack Mome needs genuine good/soft to be a force. I genuinely thought they’d leave Cilaos emery and Bunk off early at home and go to Aintree with them but it looks like he’s running the lot.
Don’t think anyone really has any idea what’ll win, when the trainers themselves seem to know so little about which race to send their horses to it hardly fills us punters with confidence, especially when there seems to be holes in the form of almost every horse in the race.
Doubt I’ll even have a bet on the Supreme this year, which saddens me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.