- This topic has 709 replies, 66 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Can someone please explain why Buveur D’Air is favourite for this race? In last years Supreme he did not have the pace to even get in contention then at Aintree he only got up to win in the last furlong. This season he goes novice chasing and wins a couple but his jumping left a lot to be desired. He is then switched to the champion hurdle presumably because they thought his jumping was not good enough for the JLT or Arkle and after winning a soft race against easy opposition he is made favourite? His rating is currently 155 well below what is needed to win a champion hurdle? I can’t decide which is the worst value favourite between him and Melon? If Yanworth wins smoothly at the weekend and there is some cut in the ground at Cheltenham I can see Barry Geraghty selecting Yanworth.
Can someone please explain why Buveur D’Air is favourite for this race?
Lack of choice.
This season he goes novice chasing and wins a couple but his jumping left a lot to be desired.
1) So what?
2) Probably why he’s hereHis rating is currently 155 well below what is needed to win a champion hurdle?
Well he’s been kept away from posting a higher figure because he was novice chasing, so not really fair to hold that against him…having said that, I don’t think he’s even reached a RPR of 160 in ANY of his runs.
I can decide which is the worst value favourite between him and Melon?
Definitely Melon.
If Buveur D’air wins, it will be very very poor Champion Hurdle…I respect this horse (was 3rd in the Supreme behind Altior and Min, beat Petit Mouchoir at Aintree, which was 40-1 shot that day and improved a lot since. Definitely BD’air is well above his official handicap mark, but would need to improve massively in order to be a CH winner. Most likely winner in this race is Yanworth. Unknown quality is Brain Power, Petit Mouchoir could have his word as well. It’s just my opinion… if everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
I need to update my previous post, cos I have seen few more races since I posted it. Well, I have to change my mind and decide to lay Yanworth for Champion Hurdle, I think handicapper got his rating wrong. But if he is right putting Yanworth got a to a mark 164, it means Yanworth wins or coming very very close.
Most likely winner in this race is Yanworth. Unknown quality is Brain Power, Petit Mouchoir could have his word as well. It’s just my opinion… if everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
I think this seems like a very sensible summary. I think Yanworth would struggle for 3rd or 4th in a good year, but might just have enough this year. Brain Power is definitely the interesting one.
Interesting to see that Yanworth is tried in cheekpieces tomorrow- perhaps connections have been reading this forum?
Cat will be rioting among the Champion Hurdle pigeons if Yanworth gets turned over tomorrow
It can run crap race tomorrow but will be ready for Cheltenham… Moon Racer to go to CH…?”Why not..Pipes are great believers…”
I think Sceau Royal might give Yanworth a fright tomorrow. Would have to write his last run off but his form before that is very good and he’s had a nice break.
I think Sceau Royal might give Yanworth a fright tomorrow. Would have to write his last run off but his form before that is very good and he’s had a nice break.
I’m not sure that it’s Sceau Royal’s ground today; he looks like he needs a decent surface, one upon which his speed isn’t blunted.
I can’t quite understand all the negativity regarding Yanworth. He hasn’t put a foot wrong this season. I like a horse that finds for pressure. Maybe the fact he doesn’t do it all on the bridle is the reason he probably doesn’t get the plaudits he deserves. I fully expect him to win today and then be the new favourite for the CH.
I should of cashed out.
Alan King has made it clear that he thinks Yanworth may lack speed over 2m, and initially favoured the stayers over the CH.
I may be wrong, but against which yardstick was he measuring Yanworth to come to this conclusion? It may just be his opposite number today..Yanworth wins today even if he will show ‘not the best performance’, no doubt about he deserves to be fav for CH, hope he will jumps this time like a CH Hurdle horse..Ch’tibello/Irving probably will fight for second.
I’m on Sceau Royal at 75’s and 44’s for CH. Thoughtt I would post up in advance of race.
Still fancy jezki to come in here and send yanworth to the stayers
Has 0 chance of winning this
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.