Bookies, Tote and Exchanges

[pawras]

Here’s something you might find interesting

Median Overround (ISP) By Course And Number Of Runners All Race types – from 2000 onwards

If you reduce the date range to from 2010 onwards the IRE ones look a little bit better

[robnorth]

There was a significant change in the way SP was calculated during Covid in 2020 using predominantly off course market and that system has been retained, so any data before that is now largely redundant. Similarly the Tote has altered their modus operandi in recent years which has seriously reduced their favourite-longshot bias, generally follow SP now and bigger divdiends only paid in bigger fields and at major meetings (particularly those involving World Pool).

Course market has altered significantly in recent years. There’s much less competition now and on course bookmakers generally following exchange (Betfair) prices.

[pawras]

That’s a good point, I’ve changed the date parm on the query to start from 2021 and get this

[robnorth]

First observation is that there used to be significant variations from course to course, but these figures suggest the ‘Industry SP’ has resulted in standardisation of margins.

[pawras]

There has been certain amount smoothing which has taken place but I’m inclined to view it a bit more for the IRE courses

i.e. looking at the figures for 2000 onwards, GB courses only, 12 runners you get a min 117.27 , max 124.65 , avg 119.78
for 2021 onwards that becomes min 119.44, max 122.85, avg 121.03

But looking at IRE courses only for 12 runners

2000 onwards , min 122.87, max 135.99, avg 126.33
2021 onwards , min 122.41, max 124.31, avg 123.37

But the fact DUNDALK (IRE), TRALEE (IRE), WEXFORD (RH) (IRE), didn’t hold any flat turf races from 2021 onwards has an impact as they were some of the worst offenders re excessive overrounds

[Author]

Posts