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Someone on twitter said that Alpha Des Obeaux was in equine hospital again during the week. It could be completely routine or there is an issue they just can’t figure out apparently
Who said that?
Segal’s pricewised Alpha Des Obeaux
It’s ok – one person said that. Johnny Ward (Irish independent bloke) said ADO is ‘all good’ – that was 2 days ago. I am sure he is fine. A trip to an equine doctor would hardly be shocking given what’s happened
Just wondering if there’s one more EW double I can squeeze out of ADO at 16s…I have MTOY + ADO, ADO + Wholestone, ADO, Politologue + Thistlecrack EW trixie…Whisper JLT’s not a bad shout, but I’d kind of like to stick 2 horses in I think have a good chance of winning (MTOY the exception purely cos I was getting 12.5/1 for a place with them).
Supreme’s way too up in the air and everything I fancy is very non-standard right now.
Neptune, nothing that stands out for me at all.
Arkle, Altior’s to lose.
Champion Hurdle, way too open, most of the value gone + already have MTOY EW double.
JLT, got Politologue in the trixie.
Champion Chase, Douvan’s to lose.
Stayers Hurdle, probably Harry’s to lose. If I’d been more on the ball, I’d have done a Cole Harden 33/1-ADO 20/1 EW double most probably. Bit annoyed I didn’t get any 33s, particularly as I backed him EW at 25s in the Cleeve.
Ryanair, I just don’t know what’s going on. Uxizandre was 16s with Victor the other day. Missed it. Now 8s. That price to me, with the risk of the bounce, is win only, particularly at 1/5 the odds. I like Road to Riches but 20/1 is very stingy given his form. Just too many question marks. Don’t even know if 2nd fav Sizing John runs here or not.
Triumph, way too many question marks about participation, quality, track suitability, etc.
Gold Cup, just never really been a big fan of the race. Minella Rocco at 33s would have been a possibility, but only 20s now.
Hmmm, what about the National? I was actually very surprised not to see everything cut for that after Many Clouds died. He was 16/1jf. I very much like my 4 in the National, so yes, I think I’ll £5EW double him with Ucello Conti, Vicente, Rogue Angel and O Faolains Boy.
It’s a damn shame Sizing John goes elsewhere as 4 placing adds up to a pretty penny – I also have £1 EW 4-folds. I would dearly love to substitute Sizing John for Cole Harden at the same price. Nevertheless, learnt a good lesson there – did not even consider for one second that Sizing John might step-up in trip, and that was just dumb. If Cause of Causes manages to win and MTOY places, I don’t think I’ll sleep on the Tuesday night.
Special Tiara’s only 25/1 for the Queen Mum even after bombing out the other day. At 33s 1/4, that might have been a nice play.
Forest Bihan at 33s in the Arkle wouldn’t be a bad shout but that’s only with Boylesports, and I’ll be lucky if they give me a 1p EW double.
Handicaps I’m steering well clear of until the picture’s clearer. Our Kaemper 14/1f for the Ultima, ffs. Must be a joke. He needs to start now if he wants to win that. Will probably be going up the hill, get passed by everything, then he’ll be going up the hill to finish last, get up to the ambulance and then refuse to go past. What a dog. Holywell though…that’s a reliable shout. I’ll have to go to the shop in the morning though cos Hills are 20/1 top price Holywell but they’re short on ADO. I’ll have a 15 minute window in the morning (have I remembered that correctly?) to get the 16s for ADO. Yes, I’ll do that.
Triumph Hurdle…Cliffs of Dover. This horse interests me very much. He smashed up Master Blueyes way easier than Charli Parcs did. Nicholls said Irving can’t get CoD off the bridle at home and his participation is assured. He’s 20/1 and not 10/1 because his form is from months ago. Then again, the race looks very hot at the moment. No, I’ll steer clear for the time being.
I considered other NH/flat events but nothing comes to mind right now :(
Kicking myself for not doubling up with Cole Harden at 33s, but then again his status was up in the air at the time.
Oh well. That’ll have to do. Bye bye, 16/1 Alpha Des Obeaux
:'(If Yorkhill goes Champion then Bellshill & Coney Island could very well go JLT and not RSA. That would leave only might bite ahead of ADO in the market. Waiting (not so patiently now) for someone in the MM camp to come out and say he is motoring at home and the burst blood vessel issue is no longer a problem.
bellshill is the solid selection.
might bite is the sexy selection.
our duke is the winning selection.
bellshill is the solid selection.
might bite is the sexy selection.
our duke is the winning selection.
Your winning selection is not even entered
bellshill is the solid selection.
might bite is the sexy selection.
our duke is the winning selection.
Your winning selection is not even entered
I just checked myself this seems a very strange and almost cowardly decision.
ok I know the RSA can leave it’s mark but you’ve also had horses like denman come out of the race
for me it smacks as if they’re almost afraid to run the horse.
Having read every post in this thread I have backed ADO in a few multiples but I’m really concerned about the bleed. The RSA is a slog of a race and if a horse bleeds once it’s very likely to happen again if he’s put under too much stress and stress is exactly how I’d describe this race.
I backed Bellshill to win any race at the festival at 8/1 back in October. I think his price is way too short here based on form anyway. The horses he has beaten would probably give him a rating in the mid 140’s which isn’t good enough for him to be priced so much lower than Coney Island and even Our Duke (before he came out of the picture). I’m not 100% convinced by Might Bite either.
What about Bleu Et Rouge? Could he go here? That Arkle at Leopardstown was way too fast for him and when he beat Gangster (rated 148) in a 2 mile 3F race over Xmas he was staying on very strong and looked like he had plenty more. Was very surprised they ran him in the 2 miler (probably just a reaction to losing Min). Maybe with Coney Island in the race JP might want him in the JLT but Willie will know that he won’t get passed Yorkhill. Might be worth a small e/w for RSA at 33/1? Think this will be a good race.
With my ADO multiples and the Bellshill any race bet I was gonna park it but have a feeling Bleu Et Rouge could do well here. Then again I’d say if we were sure he was going here the price would probably be shorter
bellshill is the solid selection.
might bite is the sexy selection.
our duke is the winning selection.
Your winning selection is not even entered
I just checked myself this seems a very strange and almost cowardly decision.
ok I know the RSA can leave it’s mark but you’ve also had horses like denman come out of the race
for me it smacks as if they’re almost afraid to run the horse.
I wouldn’t describe it as cowardly. Its a brave decision if anything because they are risking that the horse is going to benefit From not running and they are risking that he is going to be firing in 13 months time. Its a judgement call and they obviously know the horse better than we do and think he would have a better chance next year if they mind him a bit this year.
Having read every post in this thread I have backed ADO in a few multiples but I’m really concerned about the bleed. The RSA is a slog of a race and if a horse bleeds once it’s very likely to happen again if he’s put under too much stress and stress is exactly how I’d describe this race.
I backed Bellshill to win any race at the festival at 8/1 back in October. I think his price is way too short here based on form anyway. The horses he has beaten would probably give him a rating in the mid 140’s which isn’t good enough for him to be priced so much lower than Coney Island and even Our Duke (before he came out of the picture). I’m not 100% convinced by Might Bite either.
What about Bleu Et Rouge? Could he go here? That Arkle at Leopardstown was way too fast for him and when he beat Gangster (rated 148) in a 2 mile 3F race over Xmas he was staying on very strong and looked like he had plenty more. Was very surprised they ran him in the 2 miler (probably just a reaction to losing Min). Maybe with Coney Island in the race JP might want him in the JLT but Willie will know that he won’t get passed Yorkhill. Might be worth a small e/w for RSA at 33/1? Think this will be a good race.
With my ADO multiples and the Bellshill any race bet I was gonna park it but have a feeling Bleu Et Rouge could do well here. Then again I’d say if we were sure he was going here the price would probably be shorter
Bleu et rouge one of the worst jumpers of a fence I’ve ever seen. Don’t think the distance is going to change that.
I think there’s a bit of value in AMERICAN at 20/1 with Paddy Power
and Boylesports. He showed a bit of promise over hurdles, but disappointed on his last
run over them at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2, beaten a long way back in 6th by Acapella
Bourgeois. I think he looks an improved horse over fences, and had a nice pipe opener
over them at Exeter in November. He was clearly fancied that day and was backed from 5s
to 3/1 before the off. I think he improved on that a couple of weeks back at Warwick,
when he won with Champers On Ice behind him. He’s 7, and having had only 6 runs in total,
and 2 over fences, he’s open to more improvement and I think Harry Fry is having a pretty
decent year. I think the 20/1 is going to be as good a price as you’ll get
and he’s worth a punt. He does have an entry in the National Hunt Chase, but I don’t think
his running screams out running over 3m 7f, so I hope it’s relatively safe, all going well,
that he will go for this.I think there’s a bit of value in AMERICAN at 20/1 with Paddy Power
and Boylesports. He showed a bit of promise over hurdles, but disappointed on his last
run over them at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2, beaten a long way back in 6th by Acapella
Bourgeois. I think he looks an improved horse over fences, and had a nice pipe opener
over them at Exeter in November. He was clearly fancied that day and was backed from 5s
to 3/1 before the off. I think he improved on that a couple of weeks back at Warwick,
when he won with Champers On Ice behind him. He’s 7, and having had only 6 runs in total,
and 2 over fences, he’s open to more improvement and I think Harry Fry is having a pretty
decent year. I think the 20/1 is going to be as good a price as you’ll get
and he’s worth a punt. He does have an entry in the National Hunt Chase, but I don’t think
his running screams out running over 3m 7f, so I hope it’s relatively safe, all going well,
that he will go for this.Horse is very fragile, and it will only run at Cheltenham if the ground is soft. But the 20/1 probably has that factored in.
I have a feeling that the English form is stronger than the Irish in this race
look at the way Royal vacation scooted up on Saturday
certainly boosts the form of Might bite although the tizzard horse is a contender in his own right
I also find it interesting the quotes of Henderson after schooling might bite recently that he’d never saw a horse jump better
concern would be is he better on flat tracks? not sure about the stats of his sire around cheltenham either, does anyone have access to this?
Joined the ADO bandwagon last week @ 16’s!
Shame Segal has probably jinxed it. Haha!
I should of cashed out.
:'(
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