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Thought I’d start a dedicated thread for the RSA instead of having all posts in the general Cheltenham 2017 Bets thread.
As we all know, Thistlecrack is being aimed at the Gold Cup and Alpha Des Obeaux blew out big time behind Westerner Lady at Tipperary the other day (I’ve neither read nor heard any explanations for his abject effort; I’ll assume he just needed the run). In fact, Mouse Morris’ gelding now has to put two disappointing runs behind him (he also flopped at the Punchestown festival) and needs treating with caution at this point in time.
Willie Mullins is, as usual, mob-handed at this stage and it would be a brave man to guess which of his potential stars will be aimed at this particular event. Yorkhill would be my choice if it were my decision, but it isn’t…. alas! Bellshill patently found the two miles of the Supreme Novices’ too sharp at this year’s festival but showed his mettle when a narrow runner up to Ballyoptic in the Sefton at Aintree and then landing a Grade One event over three miles at Punchestown. I’m inclined to think that he just lacks the class for this, though.
Paul Nicholls has long rated Aux Ptits Soins a chaser in the making and this gelding could develop into a high class performer over the larger obstacles but he has miles to find on the big two on last season’s World Hurdle form and anyone backing him must be convinced that fences will bring about two stones’ improvement. The same comment applies to his stablemate Ibis Du Rheu, who stayed on well to win the Martin Pipe at the festival off a mark of 139. That race has thrown up subsequent festival novice chase winners Sir Des Champs (in what is now known as the JLT, but at that time was the Jewson) and Don Poli (in the RSA itself) and Ibis Du Rheu has reasonable prospects of emulating that pair, although a caveat is that Nicholls’ previous Martin Pipe winner, Salubrious, hasn’t progressed as expected over fences after bolting up by seven lengths off a mark of 141 in the Conditional Jockeys’ race in 2013.
Of the other English challengers, One Track Mind and Barters Hill look likely types but the former won an exceedingly weak renewal of the Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle while Ben Pauling’s stable star lacks a turn of foot and is readily opposed. With horses of the calibre of Yanworth, Ballyoptic and Unowhatimeanharry reportedly to be kept over hurdles this season the home defence doesn’t look that strong, although The New One would obviously be of major interest if he takes to fences and is stepped up in trip… there are many who would like to see him tried over three miles.
The best hope of fending off the Irish raiders may prove to be Shantou Village. A major disappointment when sent off favourite for the 2016 Albert Bartlett, he had previously looked a top-notcher in the making and his recent stroll in an egg and spoon novice chase at Fontwell at least demonstrated that a) he is still in one piece and b) he can jump a fence. I’m willing to forgive his festival flop and would recommend a few quid each-way at 25-1, odds which are widely available.
The other one I like at this stage is yet another Irish challenger, Prince Of Scars. After progressing through the ranks in handicap hurdles, Gordon Elliott’s charge was impressive when slamming Alpha Des Obeaux in a Grade One hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas and was by no means disgraced when staying on stoutly behind Thistlecrack at Aintree on his only subsequent start, despite racing keenly after his lay-off. Another currently priced at 25-1, he has always looked an embryonic chaser and the only problem is that most of his form is in the mud… but who knows what conditions global warming will bestow upon us come March!
Selections: Shantou Village and Prince Of Scars, both 25-1 (general).
Good luck Gladiatuer with Prince of Scars. He was a “notebook” horse of mine last year, and he fared even better than I expected. His awkward head carriage wouldn’t concern me nearly as much as his apparent ground concerns, and if not for those concerns, then I’d be all over him as well. Should he trap on the day, I’d have to have a few quid on. Looking forward to seeing him back out.
I really like Aux Ptit Soins for this, and thought, off a very interrupted prep, that he ran a great race in The World Hurdle. He looks a very strong contender at this stage to me.
As for Bellshill, as much as he appears to be heading over fences, I’d love to see them head World Hurdle with him. I was one of his biggest critics last year, and laid him Ante-Post for both the novice events at The Festival, and I very rarely lay horses. I just thought he was miles short of what was required, but I think he’s a different horse for a trip, and I wouldn’t be writing him off too quickly.
My record in this has been very poor the last few years, and don’t have too many others on the shortlist right at this time, but looking forward to Itsafreebee this weekend, and also interested in how Fagan is campaigned this season.
Very very decent debut over fences today from Its’afreebee today at Fakenham. Although I thought The JLT might be more his thing, I don’t see why he can’t do the Neptune to RSA route, and the 33’s for The RSA looks fair after that today.
It was a decent enough performance- his jumping improved as he warmed to his task- but the opposition was hardly high class. Still, it was a promising début over fences and there should be a lot more to come, especially once stepped up to three miles.
Yeah Glad, hardly world beaters, but very happy with his jumping, and even when the runner up had a go near the end, he clearly had loads in reserve. I’ve a real soft spot for him, he got me a decent Ante-Post return at Cheltenham, so heart might be ruling the head, but I still reckon there’ll be more to come.
Sorely tempted by the 33’s, but holding fire at the moment, as I think The JLT might be the target.
Another vote here for Aux Ptit Soins, and I have taken 14-1 for him. I just have to hope he has had a smoother passage this season as things obviously went wrong with him last year. I don’t bet many as far off as this but have also bet Yorkhill at 20-1. That could be a big price come March but from the Mullins yard I know he could head to a number of races.
I see that Shantou Village has got a couple of entries at Cheltenham this weekend. Fehily is jocked up for the three miler on Friday, so it looks as though that’s the preferred option.
I suspect Shantou Village is a JLT horse. They made the mistake of going for the Albert Bartlett last season, in my opinion, when he’d shown sufficient speed during the trials to be a Neptune horse
Whataknight has a chance if it’s Good ground but he might develop into one for the National Hunt Chase
I think Bellshill is the outstanding candidate for this race.
ALPHA DES OBEAUX for me at 8/1 he be better everytime he go over fences and big day for him is at Cheltenham
O O SEVEN 25/1 with Betfair get on!! This horse is a stayer in the true sense of the word and would have IMO gone close in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham if Nicky had not have decided to run him in the Neptune. He beat Fagan by about three quarters of a length less the Harry did over three miles at Musselburgh before Cheltenham and the way O O won at Cheltenham I think this is a good horse!!
Alpha Des Obeaux to win @ 10’s
Think it will take something special to get past him over 3 miles the way he ran there over 20F
3 6 5 just went 12’s so added that as well. I dont see much of a reason to push him out that much.
Alpha Des Obeaux to win @ 10’s
Think it will take something special to get past him over 3 miles the way he ran there over 20F
3 6 5 just went 12’s so added that as well. I dont see much of a reason to push him out that much.
Agreed Botchy,Mouse will be aiming him for one big one this year and it can only be the RSA….Or the 4miler!!I have just taken the 9’s on the machine for the 3m race…Bellshill 10’s would be my idea of the danger unless Willie runs Yorkhill 80’s because he could win anything that boy.
I don’t know what race Anibale fly is being aimed at but that was the big eyecatcher to take out of the Drinmore for me
Agree though with Alpha for the RSA that jumped really well and wouldn’t have been suited by the slowish pace of the contest
I think this race completely revolves around Alpha Des Obeaux and Aux Ptits Soins.
The 12/1 for ADO is simply nonsense. He was 12s before the season started + Thistlecrack’s participation is even more in question now.
The World Hurdle last season was just such an incredible race + the form of it is working out so well that I just can’t believe anything can get close to ADO or APS.
I’d started doing a “mini book” for this, but had only bet 4 of them for small money, and as I don’t really enjoy second guessing which Novice events they’re going for, I’ve scrapped it, and laid them all for a pretty decent profit……………nearly a whole pound.
I’ll start from scratch, and just side with one horse from now on in.
A few on the radar, like Fagan, but his absence (and price) is a concern, while Nambour looks perfect for The National Hunt Chase.
I quite like Minella Daddy at 25’s, he looks progressive, and I think connections might just consider this. The other one that I think has been totally overlooked is Fletchers Flyer, who is completely unqouted. Streetwise, and has plenty of ability……I might just try and get a price.
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