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Just noticed ADO has an entry in the 4 miler as well as the RSA & JLT, 25’s didn’t last long now back to 16’s
Yes, went well. The race fell apart as it did at Kempton though, so tread carefully.
Also worth pointing out that Bellshill’s novice chase form looks rank at this stage. The horse he beat LTO Haymount got beat very easily by Anibale Fly. The horse he beat on his debut, Balko Des Flos, was also easily beaten in the same race. Bellshill was also beaten at Aintree by Ballyoptic over hurdles.
Cole Harden beat Ballyoptic 7 1/2L getting 4lbs. Call it a 4L loss overall?
Cole Harden was beaten 24L by Alpha Des Obeaux off level weights.
Bellshill is 4/1f. Alpha Des Obeaux is 16/1.
At the very least, purely on hurdling form, the prices are a joke. Even accounting for ADO bleeding LTO, that does not account for a 14% difference between their prices. This is 111111 + Mullins syndrome in-play. Punish the bookies for making a big mistake.
Also worth pointing out that Bellshill’s novice chase form looks rank at this stage. The horse he beat LTO Haymount got beat very easily by Anibale Fly. The horse he beat on his debut, Balko Des Flos, was also easily beaten in the same race. Bellshill was also beaten at Aintree by Ballyoptic over hurdles.
Cole Harden beat Ballyoptic 7 1/2L getting 4lbs. Call it a 4L loss overall?
Cole Harden was beaten 24L by Alpha Des Obeaux off level weights.
Bellshill is 4/1f. Alpha Des Obeaux is 16/1.
At the very least, purely on hurdling form, the prices are a joke. Even accounting for ADO bleeding LTO, that does not account for a 14% difference between their prices. This is 111111 + Mullins syndrome in-play. Punish the bookies for making a big mistake.
I don’t know about you Zark but every time I think of Cheltenham now I think of the crazy price of ADO. And then I convince myself to take advantage of the fact he’s 4/1 TO PLACE! It’s just crazy.
Every day I just can’t resist not sticking him in a multi or another 5er each way. Keep adding every time expecting to wake up one day and see the bookies have realised how silly they have been and made him 6/1 joint favourite and woken up.
16/1. Sixteen to one. Madness
At the prices yes bellshill is ridiculous
I believe the best form is might bite currently on show. I know the royal vacation race fell apart today and may not have won but he still would of run a very good race! Baring that in mind I think might bite has a very high rating around 160 but that is a risk that he may have to recover from a potential injury after that heavy fall. That’s the only thing concerning me. I do want to see him run again before Cheltenham.
ADO I believe could run up to 160 aswell but again similar concerns with his profile at the moment however he is a bigger price.
Overall these are the 2 I will focus on but would ideally want to see them have a prep runI wouldn’t back bellshill either but I can’t understand you all lumping on alpha des obeaux. How much worse could his prep have gone! Your talking about a horse that rarely wins and has started his chase career in totally underwhelming fashion. He is trained by a man who hasn’t a wonderful record in graded races full stop, never mind at Cheltenham. He is wonderful at getting a horse handicapped and firing for the big day when the horse has a stone in hand but he isn’t a wonderful trainer when it comes to winning graded races. He mightn’t even line up in this race with other options available. No wonder the bookmakers are showing increased profits with this type of madness
He is trained by a man who hasn’t a wonderful record in graded races full stop
What about his record in Graded races at the Festival?
IMO his prep is the only negative surrounding him.
I wouldn’t back bellshill either but I can’t understand you all lumping on alpha des obeaux. How much worse could his prep have gone! Your talking about a horse that rarely wins and has started his chase career in totally underwhelming fashion. He is trained by a man who hasn’t a wonderful record in graded races full stop, never mind at Cheltenham. He is wonderful at getting a horse handicapped and firing for the big day when the horse has a stone in hand but he isn’t a wonderful trainer when it comes to winning graded races. He mightn’t even line up in this race with other options available. No wonder the bookmakers are showing increased profits with this type of madness
I think all of us backing ADO (myself included) at 20’s + are working on the basis that if he makes it there fit then he will go off at 4’s/5’s and we have great value in a Cheltenham market where value is increasingly hard to find. Yes, it’s a semi big ‘if’ and of course a bet like this has it’s risks because the prep has been far from ideal, but it’s certainly not the type of bet that I would have often (which I am sure is the same for others on here), and it is the type of bet the masses will avoid at the stage. In that context, I see the line you draw to bookmaker profitability as thin because if there is little support in the market, which is clearly the case as the 16’s is holding in a race that is falling apart, then there are a small number that get stung should he not run/lose. The same small number of people (that DONT normally bet on horses that have bled / had a non ideal prep) are the ones that stand to win big at a price.
All the points you made are fair enough and a bet like ADO requires a certain amount of faith and luck, but I think he has a lot of ability and the price is worth the risk. The 22 length romp of some decent horses in the stayers last year was impressive and the way he jumped and travelled and took lengths out of Our Duke (winner) at his fences before the injury was also impressive.
Callet Mad entered in the Towton. NTD previously won the race with Ollie Magern + Blaklion. Being a half-bro to Ar Mad, he clearly has a lot of ability. Only 5, and will likely struggle, but worth £5 at 75s-80s for the RSA just to get him onside should he win the Towton, which looks very likely.
What price Might Bite if Frodon comes out and wins the Scilly Isles on Saturday?
Only two runners come out of the Feltham and run again since and both won…Royal Vacation & Anibale Fly….
I backed might Bite when it fell last time out and admittedly I may be biased but without the last fence fall to my eyes that was the best novice performance of the season but 6/1 doesn’t exactly tempt me so have had a few quid each way on OUR KAEMPFER at 25/1 which considering the way it won last time out could be a huge price!!
What price Might Bite if Frodon comes out and wins the Scilly Isles on Saturday?
Only two runners come out of the Feltham and run again since and both won…Royal Vacation & Anibale Fly….
Anibale Fly was pulled up in the Feltham and didn’t travel a yard. Clearly didn’t run anything like his best.
Might Bite is the fly in the ointment for me right now.
Firstly, will he run? Surely he has to come out and run again at the very least given the last fence fall. Unlike ADO, he’s not had five chase starts and the December>Festival break isn’t a trademark of Henderson’s training style.
Secondly, was the race even any good? For me the Feltham had no outstanding runner in it. Anibale Fly had that 2nd behind Coney Island in Ireland, but behind him, there was very little of any proven class. Not one runner rated 150+ over hurdles, Frodon was a 4yo with 5 chase starts to his name already, Minella Daddy is a handicapper, Amore Alato is a bit doggish. The race completely fell apart to boot and it goes down in most people’s book as a very unreliable piece of form. Let’s look at the runners who completed;
Royal Vacation – 129-rated hurdler, 4 starts over fences with 1 victory. Only 2 of those had been over 3 miles, resulting in a loss to Zeroshadesofgrey (in a 4-runner race) and a win over Delgany Demon (in a 5-runner race). That win was also a bit of a joke, with just 2 of the 5 runners completing. Zeroshadesofgrey isn’t a particularly good horse. His run previous to this was 3rd behind Politologue in a 4-runner Grade 2 novice chase, a race in which he was outpaced from a long way out. He was also beaten in a 6-runner race over 2m3f by As De Mee, in which he jumped well but was outpaced.
I’d also like to draw attention to RV’s going preferences;
Soft/heavy: 4232461111
Good to soft: 123
Good or quicker: 9021He’s clearly shown an affinity for underfoot conditions. Let’s look at the runs on good ground or quicker. 9th of 22 in the Festival bumper, 10th of 17 in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown, 2nd to Zeroshadesofgrey in a 4-runner field (only 2 finishers) and then a win in the Feltham when he would have finished a wide-margin 2nd. If Royal Vacation has shown a clear preference for soft ground in the past, yet was able to finish ‘second’ in the Feltham, that doesn’t say a lot about the horses behind him. If he simply replicated his run behind Zeroshadesofgrey, which I’m not saying happened, but if it did, Might Bite ran as good as Zeroshadesofgrey did when beating RV, which is RPR142. Looked for all the world like Frodon was going to go past but either didn’t stay or the exertions of the 5 previous starts told.
Virgilio – 146-rated hurdler, 4 starts over fences with 2 wins in 4- and 5-runner fields. PU when defeated by Frodon (clearly not his running) in a 3-runner race and then 2nd behind Clan Des Obeaux at Newbury in a 5-runner Grade 2 novice chase, in another race which fell apart.
Amore Alato – 140-rated hurdler, 7 starts over fences with his sole victory coming in the race before, in a 4-runner Listed Chase at Sandown.
Present Man – 132-rated hurdler, 6 starts over fences with 3 wins in 4, 5 and 7-runner fields, including LTO in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Donny (ahead of O O Seven, but I’m *not sure* he gave his true running that day)
Plenty of single-figure fields in races that fell apart. The race is littered with them.
The wide distances between those who completed and the fact that only 4 of 10 completed shines a dim light on the quality of the race. Having said that, Coneygree won this by a distance and only 3/7 completed that day.
Thirdly, the Feltham is a Nicky Henderson race. He’s trained 6 winners of it and had several runners placed. The Feltham is also a notoriously bad pointer for the RSA, owing to, I’d suggest, the difference in conditions between Kempton and Cheltenham, as well as the need to run to quite a high level early-ish in the season for a novice chaser.
Fourthly, Might Bite is 8 years old. Very rare to find a 8yo RSA winner.
Fifth, Royal Vacation did ‘boost’ the form somewhat over the weekend. But again, that came in a race which completely fell apart: 8 of 14 finished. Included within the 6 non-finishers were the 5/1jf and a 7/1 shot. 5/1jf Champers On Ice never travelled a yard over the trip and might as well not have been running.
Having said that…the race did look quite good to me beforehand. I like Ibis Du Rheu, who got outstayed at Chepstow the time before. I like Burtons Well, a half-bro to Burton’s Port. Potters Legend is a solid horse too, and finished 3rd behind Ballyoptic and Bellshill at Aintree.
Sixth, Might Bite had put in RPRs previously of 106, 134, 139, 139, 150, 148, 147 and 155. He then suddenly runs to 165 on the bridle? It is possible. Only 8 previous starts and he’d consistently shown a strong, consistent level of form according to RPRs (which should only serve as a guide, but still). Career form figures of 31151721F improve to 11171F when ignoring seasonal reappearances. That 7th was a very good effort off top weight in a handicap in which he was only beaten by 5 1/2L. He was also stepped up in class from a Class 4 novice hurdle to a Class 2 novice hurdle on his 3rd career start. He had his chasing debut in the race at Cheltenham in which More Of That won on his chase debut, which was actually quite a good race. Obviously he was due to go the chasing thing last year but was held back for whatever reason. He’s clearly well regarded. His half-brother Beat That was trained by Nicky Henderson and he quickly reached a very high level of form, culminating in a Grade 1 novice hurdle win. Like Might Bite however, he was fragile and didn’t race after his novice hurdling year. Might Bite has also gone off at 5/2 or shorter for 6 of his 9 career starts, including as 6/5f on his debut, also suggesting he shows a lot at home.
Conclusion…frustratingly for me, Might Bite seems to be better than I originally gave him credit for. Yet again goes to show that you should never take anything for granted in this game. He’s clearly highly regarded and should have a high level of ability.
He has a couple of negatives to his name…he’s 8. 2 winners in the last 20 years were 8 or older. But tbh this stat is what put me off Sizing Europe before he won the Arkle. It’s a bit of a misnomer. I don’t mind dismissing horses for being younger than a certain point, as it’s logical, but dismissing a horse for being too old is not always logical. So not really a proper negative.
His prep hasn’t been great; Falling at the last, the Feltham, the lack of reliable form, etc. He almost certainly does need to come out and run again and Nicky says they might miss the Festival with him. You’re taking a leap of faith backing him, but then again so are ADO backers.
Regarding Bellshill, having seen that the 3rd, Potters Legend, from the Aintree 3m Gr1 novice hurdle, is kicking about in handicaps, and Ballyoptic is now exposed as a pretty ordinary stayer, you have to question why on earth Bellshill is 4/1f for this. He’s never run to better than RPR155, his novice chase form is poor, his two runs at Cheltenham have been dreadful and his runs in Grade 1 novice hurdles at the back end of last season form-wise look pretty ordinary. We’re talking about a neck defeat to Ballyoptic and a neck win over Coney Island.
Which is very bad news for Coney Island fans as Bellshill’s beaten him twice at Grade 1 level. You can point to Coney Island beating Alpha Des Obeaux in December as a negative for ADO, but I maintain that ADO will run at least a stone better (maybe even 20lbs) than that with the extra distance and Mouse’s training MO.
Might Bite and Alpha Des Obeaux look the strongest contenders to me at the moment. I’d be pretty concerned if MB turned up on the day actually, and would have to get him onside. Callett Mad looks the most interesting outsider, but his age is a big concern.
I watched most of Might Bite’s races last night. He’s by Scorpion, so he’s not without his quirks.
When winning a novice hurdle at Cheltenham on his 3rd start, he was mighty quirky up the run-in. When running off top weight in a handicap at Cheltenham, again, quirky. Seemed to stop a bit. Obviously fell at the last in the Feltham too. Something to keep in mind.
I watched most of Might Bite’s races last night. He’s by Scorpion, so he’s not without his quirks.
When winning a novice hurdle at Cheltenham on his 3rd start, he was mighty quirky up the run-in. When running off top weight in a handicap at Cheltenham, again, quirky. Seemed to stop a bit. Obviously fell at the last in the Feltham too. Something to keep in mind.
You are spot on. I watched them all where ‘quirky up the run-in’ is probably the best way of putting it. It’s difficult (at this stage) to gauge whether the RSA and Cheltenham will suit but he was mighty impressive at Kempton. DJ was at fault there.
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