- This topic has 327 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Yes, looks like 3 gone in 2 days: Our Duke, Bleu Et Rouge + Aux Ptits Soins. Cole Harden not entered either.
Yes, looks like 3 gone in 2 days: Our Duke, Bleu Et Rouge + Aux Ptits Soins. Cole Harden not entered either.
Exactly, down to 3 head ahead in the market and for the reasons you eluded to earlier, I am not worried. Still holding 14’s / 16’s
Nicky’s written in his blog that Might Bite might not even run at Cheltenham and wants to get another run into him beforehand at the very least.
Not quite sure what was from APS? Ok, he didn’t win the previous time that comfortably, but still jumped and travelled reasonably well. Today was just the polar opposite, couldn’t go with the leaders and jumped terribly, the ground wasn’t even that bad. Not sure what Nicholls will make of that, be interesting what his comments are but all bets are off as far as the festival is concerned… You can’t really say he’s out of form Zarkava though, still had half a dozen winners in last 10 days or so and operating at ~20% strike rate which is only just under the norm for his stable.
Another race of the festival where it’s nigh-on impossible to form an opinion just yet – no AP bets for me!
No question Nicholls’ horses have been running below form. The other day he’d posted form stats of
3/28 | 11% S/R | -£11.52 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/28 | 39% S/R
35% below expectation
Cheers Ben Aitken for that.
Straight after Aux Ptits Soins he banged in 2 winners though! Looks like they’ve literally just come back to form.
It depends what sample size you consider is a fair reflection of trainer form – two weeks, a month? I suppose 21% for the last 2 weeks is slightly under what he’d expect, but it’s not exactly a lucrative calendar in January so perhaps it’s all about getting a run into his horses before March so winning not that vital. Like you say, things can change quickly as he’s now had 4 winners within the space of a few days!
Back to the RSA, if you want to take a leap of faith you can back APS at 50s now. He obviously didn’t give his running today and doesn’t become a bad horse overnight – it’s perhaps the case he either needs to lead or be prominent so probably sulked when put in rear and decided not to jump some of them. Horses are of course highly strung animals and are not always reliable, so it’s one to ponder…I’ll await Nicholls comments before deciding, it may be that he scopes badly.
Coney Island is now taking my eye with the omission of Our Duke after finishing a good second to him at Leapardstown. He’s a very consistent horse and will appreciate the faster spring ground methinks. Could be my one on the day.
Back to the RSA, if you want to take a leap of faith you can back APS at 50s now.
Currently hoping people back at the 100s on offer!
Coney Island is the one of the market principles who I think has absolutely no chance. Just won’t see which way ADO goes.
Who’s the 100s with Zark? Or is it via the Exchanges?
CI is rated 5 lb higher than ADO, and beat him fair and square in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse. The RSA may be over 3 miles but not really sure what has prompted your opinion that he has no chance?
I’m not going to repeat stuff I’ve said in this thread countless times. ADO will run a stone better than that day.
Exchanges 100s
OK well exchanges are invariably always higher odds! I pay premium charge with Betfair so don’t tend to use it for straight bets these days…
Sorry if you feel put out by my question, I haven’t been following this thread particularly closely so not sure what you’ve said. Anyway, I feel CI has a very fair chance so he’s definitely on my shortlist. ADO may indeed appreciate the better ground at Cheltenham but still risky after what happened last time. Good luck with him, though.
I was told years ago that Nicholls gives his horses their flu jabs in January and that’s why they generally underperform.No idea if that is true but it does seem like it is usually his worst month of the season so could be something in it…
– 2nd to Thistlecrack in the Stayers’ Hurdle wasn’t a fluke for Alpha Des Obeaux. He was going to do exactly the same the year before at Aintree when falling at the last. I don’t swear by any kind of ratings, particularly not ORs, but I think RPRs can help give a rough idea of what’s going on. Let’s look at 2014/15. ADO ran to a RPR of 142 at Cork behind Black Hercules. Then 139 behind Douvan. Then 3 months later, straight to Aintree and he runs to 150 when falling behind Thistlecrack. That’s an improvement of 8lbs according to RPRs. Let’s look at 2015/16. RPRs of 152, 159 and 159. Then to Cheltenham after a break of 2 months and he runs to 170. So we’ve got improvements of +8 and +11 at major Spring festivals. This is Mouse Morris’ MO.
Been studying Mouse Morris’ Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival runners + found a little trend. Not going to reveal the trend, but it throws up 16 qualifiers (2002-2016).
2 winners
8 placed (8 2nds, in fact)
6 unplacedOf these 16, I would say that only 1 ran badly. And by badly, I mean that he didn’t hold a winning chance 4 out.
Alpha Des Obeaux qualifies.
I would also point to 150/1 Elysian Rock, who was in the process of running a cracker in the RSA before making a mistake 4 out, and his December-January preparation of being beaten by 56L and 31L, in an attempt to detract those who believe that ADO cannot win because of his preparation this season.
Ok sorry, look above
I was told years ago that Nicholls gives his horses their flu jabs in January and that’s why they generally underperform.No idea if that is true but it does seem like it is usually his worst month of the season so could be something in it…
Precisely
OK thanks Zark.
And thanks Moyenne for that useful insight – it would explain things! I think January for most trainers is quite a lean time, especially with the recent cold weather we’ve had…
Another Alpha Des Obeaux backer here. I gt involved at 10/1 earlier this season and backed him again at 20/1 after he pulled up at Christmas.
Our Duke was my other fancy for the race but I couldn’t get a price on him before Leopardstown and felt he wasn’t likely to be massively shorter on the day than the 12/1 which was available after he won the Grade 1, so thankfully a bullet dodged.
There are obviously doubts about Alpha Des Obeaux having bled last time but it’s hard to forget the drastically improved displays he has shown in the spring, both as a novice at Aintree and last year at Cheltenham. And there’s a favorite here who has to be taken on imo.
I’ve seen comments that his previous disappointments at Cheltenham are down to racing over two miles but I don’t buy that at all. He has never in his life looked like a horse that wants three miles. He came there pulling double over three miles at Aintree and was worried out of it and didn’t find as much as what looked likely when holding off Coney Island at Punchestown.
Two and a half miles is the horses trip for me and if it wasn’t for the same owner having Yorkhill then I’d have little doubt he’d be in the JLT. If something happens Min we could see a reshuffle that will see him running there. My doubts about him at the trip, along with a shocking Cheltenham recoord and a round of jumping last time that didn’t impress me at all, mean I’m keen to oppose him here. The time to back him over three miles could be at Aintree again, where he has ran excellent races for the past two seasons.
With no Our Duke, Alph Des Obeaux is the one I want to stick with to take advantage, 16/1 is still fair.
^ What he said.
Nice form boost for Alpha Des Obeaux there with Anibale Fly winning in Ireland, beating a nice young progressive chaser.
That 2m 4f Grade 1 Alpha Des Obeaux finished 3rd in not looking bad. Winner Coney Island 1/2L 2nd in a Grade 1, 2nd Anibale Fly 1st in a Grade 3 and 6th A Toi Phil 1st in the Thyestes! Very nice form. Best novice chase form in Ireland?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.