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Faugheen – at 6/4- I think the price is crazy short for a horse who hasn’t run for 2 years- a horse who is 2 years older and I’m not convinced he will even win Sunday’s race let alone a champion hurdle.
Of course he could win the champion hurdle but 6/4 is ridiculous.
Have already layed this horse.Yorkhill – 2/1 – too short again yes very talented but as I’ve mentioned in previous posts I believe he is a tad overrated and was The 2nd best horse in the Neptune.
Haven’t been overly convinced by his 2 novice chase runs either. The other thing is everything is running scared of Altior so the JLT is very hot in comparison.
Again could win this but at the price there is no value and I will be laying there’s also the chance he for another race.Faugheen has been out for 1 year; not 2. He got injured in the same race he is running in on Sunday last year. If he is anywhere near his best then nobody will get near him. You will know a lot more on Sunday. I fancy Petit Mouchoir to get the better of Yanworth so if Faugheen can beat Petit Mouchoir convincingly on Sunday then I think you’re in trouble. If PM wins on Sunday then its a good lay and Faugheen will float out to 4/1. If Faugheen leaves PM for dead then he’ll be odds on, I’d say..
I think Yorkhill is definitely the best horse in the JLT shake up so you have a dangerous bet there. 2/1 is very short like you say so at least if you get burned it won’t be too severe.
Best of luck with it.
€1 e/w
Melon – SNH
Min – Ankle
Cause of Causes – Ultima
Faugheen – CH
Limini – MH
Champers on Ice – NHCVery pleased to say it doesn’t look as if Mullins is going to get close to cleaning up this year. Now if we could only get rid of the those mare’s races…..
When you say cleaning up what exactly do you mean?
He had 7 winners last year and 8 the year before; would you call that “cleaning up”? I reckon there is still a good chance he could end up with 8 winners.
I reckon he still has to be strong favourite to take the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, JLT and Mares Novice. That’s 4. Has a great chance in the Ryanair, Arkle, RSA and Mares Hurdle. I’d say he’ll get 2 out 4 there
He will be competitive in all 4 grade 1 Novice Hurdles and should win 1 of them.
Then out of the Gold Cup, Stayers Hurdle and Champion Bumper he could easily win 1 of them.That’s 8 wins of all the Grade 1’s (Grade 2 Mares Novice) alone.
The yard has now lost Vautour and Annie Power, they have serious question marks over Killultagh Vic and Senewalk has bombed. For any other trainer this would be a major crisis but not for WPM.
He mightn’t win 8 but he has a good chance to do it. Think he will definitely win at least 6 and take Leading Trainer prize for the 6th time in 7 years.
Will be interesting to see if Nichols had an off day the last time out or if Petit Mouchoir is just the better horse. Cant wait to see how Faugheen gets on.
Think someone said it already that he’s a Haydock Specialist so could be a good shout for next years Betfair
RSA Chase – Bellshill, Our Duke, Alpha Des Obeaux
Neptune Hurdle – Finians Oscar, Saturnas, Monalee
Ryanair Chase – Un De Sceaux, Sizing John, Champagne Fever
Mares Novice Hurdle – Airlie Beach, Asthuria, Lets Dance
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Melon, Crack Mome, Any Second Now
Do you not reckon Mullins will be looking at the experienced Un De Sceaux to get it done in the Ryan Air? Cant see Ruby choosing Herc over UDS; even if UDS makes a mess next week..
That would definitely seem the logical choice ‘Vautour’ but the logical choice would be to leave Black hercules at home so if he does turn up I’ll be collecting pal.
Man, I love your confidence. I wont be joining you on this occasion but if you’re right then I will congratulate you and bow to your superior foresight going forward.
For the record I have UDS at 6’s and Sizing John e/w at 8’s and I’m happy enough with that. If one of them turns up I’ll be happy to sit on my hands..I really can’t contain it but ALTIOR wins this so easily and will beat min further in this than the supreme.
Feel like we have only scratched the surface with Altior.
Not even confident min finishes 2nd.The great thing is everyone has an opinion. I cant wait for this race.
With the 7 pound allowance I’d say Annie will take it.
If they are gonna put all their eggs in the Limini basket for The Mares they are risking losing their 8 year stranglehold on that race. They wont want Elliot taking it with Apples Jade. You would have thought Vroum Vroum or Annie would be going there but if he trusts Limini to get the job doine in The Mares race against Apples Jade then all of a sudden there are more options.
Annie – Champion Hurdle, Faugheen – Stayers, Limini – Mares, Vroum Vroum – Ryanair?
You could see Rich Ricci wanting to win as many races as possible. Willie knows he has Un De Sceaux for The Ryan Air. If one horse gets injured (Douvan for example) then UDS to CC, Vroum to Ryanair, Limini – Mares, Faugheen – Stayers, Annie – CH. If Douvan and UDS make the CC and Ryan Air respectively then I’d say Willie will have to make a call on Limini; is she good enough to beat Apples Jade?
I think he’d rather win the Stayers and the Champion Hurdle anyway but he wont want to lose the Mares.
To sum up; who knows? I still reckon his first choice is Annie to CH, Faugheen to Stayers and Vroum to Mares but if Annie is even 1% off her best then Faugheen – CH, Annie – Mares, Vroum – Stayers..
This is giving me a headache
Willie is all for them running against each other. Rich Ricci isn’t and Ruby obviously isn’t either. We’ll see but would be great if they squared off
ricci said they are looking forward to having a crack at altior, due to the problems min had after the race previous, including the fact that min will be a far better chaser than hurdler, min would have to be injured not to run in the arkle, no chance he goes jlt and the only way yorkhill goes arkle is if min gets injured
Fact is yorkhill beat a 148 horse on the bridle by a decent distance jett is clearly a better chaser than hurdler which made yorkhills win underwhelming….. theyll be delighted with how he won given the errors.
Surely if you take the stance he isnt the best jumper then dropping him to the arkle would be suicide given the likely tempo of the race
Jlt looks a walk in the park compared to the arkle for yorkhill
Agree 100%
Yorkhill is going to one race and one race only and that’s the JLT.
Yorkhill will go where Ruby wants to a large extent, as will all the others. On Supreme form and, arguably on chase form so far, Min is unlikely to beat Altior and a rethink could easily push Min to the JLT. Yorkhill would have a better chance than Min would of beating Altior should Altior not be diverted to the QM. Ruby will know this, as will Willie.
My tongue-in-cheek post earlier notwithstanding, Min’s best chance of running in the Arkle is probably an Altior QM target. If Nicky sticks with the Arkle I think there’s a very strong chance of a switch for Min/Yorkhill. They are certainly not the 33s and 12s currently available, especially given Mullins’s switching record.
As Ben Linfoot at Sportinglife.com points out, this time last year Black Hercules was a hot fav for the four-miler and 50/1 for the JLT. As for Vautour, well, we all know what happened there. The last thing I’d be doing is taking short odds about any Mullins beast. I’d sooner take the much longer odds to a tenner in anticipation of a mind-change.
Have you seen Min jumping fences? He is a natural (like his big brother, Douvan). He goes over them fences at top speed like they’re not even there and gains major strides on his opponents in the process. The Supreme is a totally different race. He is way more suited to the Arkle than Yorkhill and I think Altior is gonna have his hands full. If they swap I’ll eat my hat.
I think you are correct when you say Ruby will have the final say but why would Ruby, who has been on Min twice this season, and compared him to Kauto, swap him out of the Arkle in favour of a horse that hasn’t jumped well?
As for Altior to The QM; I hope you are correct (I’ve backed Min at 4s) although I don’t fancy his chances against Douvan. I’d say Altior will stay in the Arkle, have his rematch against Min, which will be a great battle.
Yorkhill will go to The JLT and mop it up
Bellshill will go to The RSA and the only reason he’s not a stupid price for that is his course form. He has done everything right this season and the form stacks up. he has beaten Haymount, who has beaten Coney Island, who has beaten Alpha Des Obeaux, who seems to be well respected on this forum. I understand that course form is a big thing but for a novice there’s a very good chance that he had an off day in last years Supreme
He has no chance of going to any other race. Anyone who understands the behaviour of Willie Mullins will know that for sure.
He wants to win all the Grade 1’s
He has Min for The Arkle, who is a better jumper than Yorkhill. Min, Yorkhill and Bellshill seem to be his best Novice Chasers so they will go to the Arkle, JLT and RSA respectively.
He has Annie Power, Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, and if he was really stuck, Vroum Vroum Mag for the Champion Hurdle. Yorkhill is going to one race and one race only and that’s the JLT.
Gord, Here is the news…
Altior beats Ar Mad and the best of the UK’s two-milers in the Game Spirit, beats them hollow. Nicky knows if he runs him in the QM then about 3 others will take on Altior and Douvan (a bit like Thistlecrack and Cue Card scaring off the others in the KG).
The Arkle is then there for Yorkhill’s taking (more suitable race, anyway).
In the above way I’d say Whisper maybe runs in the JLT, but even at that I think he’s a stayer and might opt for the RSA.
I think they hold Min in higher regard than Yorkhill. They did last year when they were hurdling and based on the two appearances this year you’d have to think Min would be too strong for Yorkhill, particularly with Min’s jumping
Is Whisper that great? I haven’t seen him beat any top horses.
Not that he’s great but I think 12/1 is good value if you can be sure he will turn up there. Who else is there?
For the record I have UDS at 6’s and Sizing John e/w at 8’s and I’m happy enough with that. If one of them turns up I’ll be happy to sit on my hands..