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JLT Novices Chase

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Viewing 17 posts - 52 through 68 (of 225 total)
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  • #1283413
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Actually I was surprised looking at the ratings earlier that Whisper was so high rated… so you will well be right TAPK although I’ve never been massively convinced by this horse

    #1283414
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8697

    Gord, Here is the news…

    Altior beats Ar Mad and the best of the UK’s two-milers in the Game Spirit, beats them hollow. Nicky knows if he runs him in the QM then about 3 others will take on Altior and Douvan (a bit like Thistlecrack and Cue Card scaring off the others in the KG).

    The Arkle is then there for Yorkhill’s taking (more suitable race, anyway).

    In the above way I’d say Whisper maybe runs in the JLT, but even at that I think he’s a stayer and might opt for the RSA.

    Well Joe if ‘Yorkhill’ does run in the Arkle Whisper goes off 3/1 fav for the JLT…I do hope you are right there pal.so much so that I’ve just had another £50 e/w on Nickys horse at Ladbrokes this time.
    As far as him running in the RSA I’d say its 1/3 JLT…2/1 RSA…Its always better for a horse who gets 3m to drop down in trip than a horse who wins over 21/2m going over 3m…’Bladebuster’ I hope you are keeping up here?

    #1283441
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    Yorkhill as likely to go for the Champion Hurdle as the Arkle.

    #1283448
    Avatar photoVautour
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    • Total Posts 720

    He has no chance of going to any other race. Anyone who understands the behaviour of Willie Mullins will know that for sure.

    He wants to win all the Grade 1’s

    He has Min for The Arkle, who is a better jumper than Yorkhill. Min, Yorkhill and Bellshill seem to be his best Novice Chasers so they will go to the Arkle, JLT and RSA respectively.

    He has Annie Power, Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, and if he was really stuck, Vroum Vroum Mag for the Champion Hurdle. Yorkhill is going to one race and one race only and that’s the JLT.

    #1283457
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    Yorkhill is going to one race and one race only and that’s the JLT.

    Yorkhill will go where Ruby wants to a large extent, as will all the others. On Supreme form and, arguably on chase form so far, Min is unlikely to beat Altior and a rethink could easily push Min to the JLT. Yorkhill would have a better chance than Min would of beating Altior should Altior not be diverted to the QM. Ruby will know this, as will Willie.

    My tongue-in-cheek post earlier notwithstanding, Min’s best chance of running in the Arkle is probably an Altior QM target. If Nicky sticks with the Arkle I think there’s a very strong chance of a switch for Min/Yorkhill. They are certainly not the 33s and 12s currently available, especially given Mullins’s switching record.

    As Ben Linfoot at Sportinglife.com points out, this time last year Black Hercules was a hot fav for the four-miler and 50/1 for the JLT. As for Vautour, well, we all know what happened there. The last thing I’d be doing is taking short odds about any Mullins beast. I’d sooner take the much longer odds to a tenner in anticipation of a mind-change.

    #1283463
    Avatar photoVautour
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    Yorkhill is going to one race and one race only and that’s the JLT.

    Yorkhill will go where Ruby wants to a large extent, as will all the others. On Supreme form and, arguably on chase form so far, Min is unlikely to beat Altior and a rethink could easily push Min to the JLT. Yorkhill would have a better chance than Min would of beating Altior should Altior not be diverted to the QM. Ruby will know this, as will Willie.

    My tongue-in-cheek post earlier notwithstanding, Min’s best chance of running in the Arkle is probably an Altior QM target. If Nicky sticks with the Arkle I think there’s a very strong chance of a switch for Min/Yorkhill. They are certainly not the 33s and 12s currently available, especially given Mullins’s switching record.

    As Ben Linfoot at Sportinglife.com points out, this time last year Black Hercules was a hot fav for the four-miler and 50/1 for the JLT. As for Vautour, well, we all know what happened there. The last thing I’d be doing is taking short odds about any Mullins beast. I’d sooner take the much longer odds to a tenner in anticipation of a mind-change.

    Have you seen Min jumping fences? He is a natural (like his big brother, Douvan). He goes over them fences at top speed like they’re not even there and gains major strides on his opponents in the process. The Supreme is a totally different race. He is way more suited to the Arkle than Yorkhill and I think Altior is gonna have his hands full. If they swap I’ll eat my hat.

    I think you are correct when you say Ruby will have the final say but why would Ruby, who has been on Min twice this season, and compared him to Kauto, swap him out of the Arkle in favour of a horse that hasn’t jumped well?

    As for Altior to The QM; I hope you are correct (I’ve backed Min at 4s) although I don’t fancy his chances against Douvan. I’d say Altior will stay in the Arkle, have his rematch against Min, which will be a great battle.

    Yorkhill will go to The JLT and mop it up

    Bellshill will go to The RSA and the only reason he’s not a stupid price for that is his course form. He has done everything right this season and the form stacks up. he has beaten Haymount, who has beaten Coney Island, who has beaten Alpha Des Obeaux, who seems to be well respected on this forum. I understand that course form is a big thing but for a novice there’s a very good chance that he had an off day in last years Supreme

    #1283467
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    Min has looked the better chaser this season. We keep hearing about Yorkhill being a monster but he hasn’t shown it yet over fences. That race yesterday was nothing special at all.

    #1283469
    ham
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    ricci said they are looking forward to having a crack at altior, due to the problems min had after the race previous, including the fact that min will be a far better chaser than hurdler, min would have to be injured not to run in the arkle, no chance he goes jlt and the only way yorkhill goes arkle is if min gets injured

    Fact is yorkhill beat a 148 horse on the bridle by a decent distance jett is clearly a better chaser than hurdler which made yorkhills win underwhelming….. theyll be delighted with how he won given the errors.

    Surely if you take the stance he isnt the best jumper then dropping him to the arkle would be suicide given the likely tempo of the race

    Jlt looks a walk in the park compared to the arkle for yorkhill

    #1283470
    Avatar photoVautour
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    ricci said they are looking forward to having a crack at altior, due to the problems min had after the race previous, including the fact that min will be a far better chaser than hurdler, min would have to be injured not to run in the arkle, no chance he goes jlt and the only way yorkhill goes arkle is if min gets injured

    Fact is yorkhill beat a 148 horse on the bridle by a decent distance jett is clearly a better chaser than hurdler which made yorkhills win underwhelming….. theyll be delighted with how he won given the errors.

    Surely if you take the stance he isnt the best jumper then dropping him to the arkle would be suicide given the likely tempo of the race

    Jlt looks a walk in the park compared to the arkle for yorkhill

    Agree 100%

    #1283472
    Avatar photocharlie87
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    Min has looked the better chaser this season. We keep hearing about Yorkhill being a monster but he hasn’t shown it yet over fences. That race yesterday was nothing special at all.

    Continually winning without looking a monster, is in itself, a trait that often makes monsters monsters

    #1283474
    Jasolong
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    • Total Posts 604

    Forgotten horse – Buveur D’air?
    Considering everyone thinks Min and Altior are monsters, BD wasn’t not far behind them in the supreme and would of been closer if closer to the pace.
    He doesn’t jump brilliantly but He has beat a few decent horses and probably more cosily than it looks visually.
    I think yorkhill is a tad overrated but not much! I still think Yanworth should have beaten him in the Neptune decisively but I’ve ranted about that before haha!

    Plus I would say visually yorkhill has similarly not been overly impressive.

    I just think there’s more to come from BD and hope he has another run before Cheltenham to see his jumping.

    #1283489
    Avatar photoMoyenneCorniche
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    Even though he got beat on Saturday,I’m still keen on Politologue for this.

    Was too free going to post and went off a bit too quickly,but jumped superbly before just getting done on the run in by another decent animal he was giving weight to.Even then he didn’t throw the towel in and battled on bravely right to the line.

    If they could calm him down and get him to race less exuberantly,I think Nichols has a serious tool here.

    #1283492
    Jaymo74
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    I got my fingers burnt on him on Saturday. It was still a good effort though for reasons that you’ve explained. My concern with this horse is the going. Is it dependant on soft ground?. I’ve watched re runs of last years coral cup and in my opinion,it didn’t act on quicker ground,which it maybe again this year with it being a later festival. I’ve backed American Tom at 25s a few months ago – i think i’ve done my dough in cold blood unfortunately.

    #1283497
    Avatar photoMoyenneCorniche
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    • Total Posts 253

    I’m happy to put a line through the Coral cup run,for whatever reason he just wasn’t on a going day.He won in France on good ground and at Ascot on g/s…so as long as it is not a road I think he will be ok (although some sort of cut would be preferable,obviously).

    #1283500
    Jaymo74
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    • Total Posts 232

    20s is a fair price for him at this stage. Do you have a view on Nicholls other runner Frodon? He’s rated higher and is at least 5 points bigger. Im dismissing Clan Des Obeaux as i think he excels on a flatter surface.

    #1283504
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    Min has looked the better chaser this season. We keep hearing about Yorkhill being a monster but he hasn’t shown it yet over fences. That race yesterday was nothing special at all.

    Continually winning without looking a monster, is in itself, a trait that often makes monsters monsters

    Not really. Sprinter was one. Thistlecrack is one. Yorkhill isn’t one.

    #1283512
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3635

    Well to say he isnt a monster is slightly off, if you compare thistlecracks career at yorkhills stage in his career, yorkhill is marketdly more successful

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