JLT Novices Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2017 JLT Novices Chase

Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 225 total)
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  • #1290408
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5488

    I don’t think the Neptune is that much wore than what this JLT could be. He won at his leisure with bundles in hand and come Tuesday evening it could well be that the Champion Hurdler was second to him. Top Notch couldn’t land a blow in a Champion Hurdle and I doubt the rest of these could either. If Yorkhill was in it he’d be favourite for sure. However, jumping can be a great leveler (no pun intended) and that’s the concern with him.

    #1290414
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    It’s amazing how a horse can divide the public so much. I’d be of the opinion that Yorkhill is head and shoulders above these ability wise and will be hoping the bookmakers take him on on Thursday morning.

    I would have been happy to take him on with Coney Island but with that one out I can’t see what troubles him. I don’t agree that this is a better race than last year’s Neptune – those behind him in the market are plenty short for me.

    I’d far and away prefer to be backing Yorkhill at 7/4 than Top Notch, Politologue or Disko at 4/1 or 5/1. There are two concerns for me: his jumping and his attitude. Regards his attitude, I think he is totally genuine but he can do things his own way as we saw at Leopardstown on Sunday. How he won at Aintree last season was miraculous given the way he behaved throughout the race.

    His jumping is probably a bigger concern. He has jumped to his left on both chase starts and you’d have to hope that he’ll straighten out when travelling quicker but that is by no means a guarantee. He is definitely not as safe a proposition as Vautour was two years ago. However, he doesn’t face the same quality of opposition imo. Of the three behind him in the market, Disko is probably the one with the most potential to improve, but he’s had a couple of right set-to’s at Leopardstown and he has thrown in a stinker on more than one occasion.

    Yorkhill will probably win by a couple of lengths imo, and may well be the only shortie I’ll be getting involved with.

    The one massive thing you’ve got on your side with Yorkhill is you know he powers up the hill, which is more than you can say for most horses that run at the festival

    if he jumps well enough to be there or thereabouts at the last then he’ll surely fly past them on the run in, the question is how much might go wrong beforehand

    I’d be happy to take 7-4 as hardly can be 7-4 on that he’ll fall and if doesn’t I think he’ll win

    #1290434
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 97

    I don’t think the Neptune is that much wore than what this JLT could be. He won at his leisure with bundles in hand and come Tuesday evening it could well be that the Champion Hurdler was second to him. Top Notch couldn’t land a blow in a Champion Hurdle and I doubt the rest of these could either. If Yorkhill was in it he’d be favourite for sure. However, jumping can be a great leveler (no pun intended) and that’s the concern with him.

    Do you really think he won the Neptune at his own leisure?! I’d say he was given a brilliant ride by Ruby, Yanworth was given a stinker by Barry and the best horse finished second.

    #1290435
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5488

    Yes.

    #1290436
    Funkmaster Flex
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    • Total Posts 97

    Thanks for clarifying.

    #1290438
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Yanworth doesn’t have the cruising speed of yorkhill

    #1290439
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 97

    Yanworth doesn’t have the cruising speed of yorkhill

    Possibly. I personally would have had Yanworth in the WH. Though based on last seasons neptune I wouldn’t totally agree.

    #1290444
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    King had a virus and out of form at last year’s Cheltenham and Yanworth had to come the long way around whilst Yorkhill got a dream run up the inner. Yorkhill was undoubtedly impressive in the Neptune, but anyone taking Yanworth as a guide to the Mullins horse may be disappointed.

    value is everything
    #1291499
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    Indeed GT, good point.

    This is probably the most interesting of the open novices’ chases. It features some excellent jumpers with the bold Politologue and springy Top Notch already worth a place in the top 5% of the racehorse population for accuracy.

    In contrast, I don’t know if Yorkhill belongs in the top 75%. He is a horrendous jumper. Can you think of a horse who dived so violently one way who truly fulfilled their potential even going ‘the right way’ around? Gloria Victis might be one if you offer up his Racing Post Chase win. Racing Demon? Captain Chris? They were horses who got by with physical problems, were capable of showing smart form on a good day but had rather frustrating and unfulfilled careers overall. Given that Willie Mullins is left with just Footpad and Wicklow Brave in the Champion Hurdle, I take it as a negative for Yorkhill’s wellbeing that he was not switched that way. Even a harsh reading of his Neptune win wouldn’t leave him with that much to find. He’d have a better chance than Footpad at least.

    With Yorkhill looking so opposable, I took Top Notch 8/1 e/w after his Sandown win. He wouldn’t beat a peak Yorkhill in a 2m 4f flat race, but his efficiency through the air will earn him lengths. He’s a good traveller, seems to be enjoying the step-up in trip and looks like one of those Best Mate types who can beat superior animals by outjumping them at Grade 1 tracks.

    Politologue has fairly similar claims, though he has slightly less raw ability than Top Notch and needs to prove himself on the ground. Even now, I think little Top Notch is the better value of the pair at the prices. Disko is another nice enthusiastic type who makes a good shape, but he has a bit to find on the bare form.

    I just don’t know how you can’t love Top Notch. He could become my favourite horse in training if he brings this home! :heart:

    #1291521
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    If you don’t want to know the bare facts about Top Notch, then please look away now.

    Top Notch is generally a horse who has won in races with very little depth to them.

    His eight wins in the UK have been at the following odds:-

    11/8, 3/10, 2/13, 4/11, 1/8, 2/5, 4/5 and last time his personal best of 11/4. You have more or less been able to set your watch that he gets beat when tackling a race where he’s not hot favourite.

    Looking at one of his better runs in the Triumph Hurdle, there is no other conclusion that can be taken, other than that the race was a load of rubbish. Winner Peace And Co was bobbins afterwards and third horse Hargam was bobbins to the power of two.

    Top Notch beat horses who didn’t have one good jump between them last time out and Clan Des Obeaux, the favourite, ran like a drain.

    He’s small, and something of a pet in the yard, both factors that tend to attract support from racing fans but liking a horse does not mean it is any more likely to win and I think 3/1 for Top Notch is abysmal value. He has done nothing since he last won, yet he was 10/1 in the aftermath of that win and 40% of those odds at best now, for no reason at all really.

    I think he is well overrated.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1291523
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5735

    Top Notch is a bit stiff backed and in danger of making a serious blunder, probably coming down the hill. Nil from two at the track and nil from one on good ground. Very skinny.

    Yorkhill has taken some abuse for his jumping. But his technique is sound and a deal more reliable than Top Notch’s I’d say. He goes left sometimes but that wouldn’t bother me.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1291529
    charlie87charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 792

    Indeed GT, good point.

    This is probably the most interesting of the open novices’ chases. It features some excellent jumpers with the bold Politologue and springy Top Notch already worth a place in the top 5% of the racehorse population for accuracy.

    In contrast, I don’t know if Yorkhill belongs in the top 75%. He is a horrendous jumper. Can you think of a horse who dived so violently one way who truly fulfilled their potential even going ‘the right way’ around? Gloria Victis might be one if you offer up his Racing Post Chase win. Racing Demon? Captain Chris? They were horses who got by with physical problems, were capable of showing smart form on a good day but had rather frustrating and unfulfilled careers overall. Given that Willie Mullins is left with just Footpad and Wicklow Brave in the Champion Hurdle, I take it as a negative for Yorkhill’s wellbeing that he was not switched that way. Even a harsh reading of his Neptune win wouldn’t leave him with that much to find. He’d have a better chance than Footpad at least.

    With Yorkhill looking so opposable, I took Top Notch 8/1 e/w after his Sandown win. He wouldn’t beat a peak Yorkhill in a 2m 4f flat race, but his efficiency through the air will earn him lengths. He’s a good traveller, seems to be enjoying the step-up in trip and looks like one of those Best Mate types who can beat superior animals by outjumping them at Grade 1 tracks.

    Politologue has fairly similar claims, though he has slightly less raw ability than Top Notch and needs to prove himself on the ground. Even now, I think little Top Notch is the better value of the pair at the prices. Disko is another nice enthusiastic type who makes a good shape, but he has a bit to find on the bare form.

    I just don’t know how you can’t love Top Notch. He could become my favourite horse in training if he brings this home! :heart:

    You think Yorkhill is a horrendous jumper :negative:

    #1291541
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    Funny how this race and these two horses are causing such a divide!

    For me, Top Notch looks like such an intelligent quick-thinking horse. He consistently outjumps more flamboyant types, always lands running and showed great balance to make light of his only serious mistake so far. I fully accept he has ability limitations – he’s a 158 hurdler, which seems like a bang-on rating for everything he achieved over timber. Still, I really believe he is one of those chasers – like a Best Mate, a Kylemore Lough or a Grey Abbey, who will squeeze out a few lbs over fences through his jumping.

    Cheltenham and decent ground don’t worry me at all. The best adjusted hurdles figure of his life was clocked at Cheltenham on good-to-soft. I think that confounds any further argument.

    I believe little Top Notch can crank out a 165 performance over fences with his jumping and potential improvement at 2m 4f factored in. Yorkhill would laugh at that over hurdles last year, but I think you’re dreaming if you look his runs this year and see a horse who is primed to run 170 over fences in 3 days time.

    #1291544
    charlie87charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 792

    Funny how this race and these two horses are causing such a divide!

    For me, Top Notch looks like such an intelligent quick-thinking horse. He consistently outjumps more flamboyant types, always lands running and showed great balance to make light of his only serious mistake so far. I fully accept he has ability limitations – he’s a 158 hurdler, which seems like a bang-on rating for everything he achieved over timber. Still, I really believe he is one of those chasers – like a Best Mate, a Kylemore Lough or a Grey Abbey, who will squeeze out a few lbs over fences through his jumping.

    Cheltenham and decent ground don’t worry me at all. The best adjusted hurdles figure of his life was clocked at Cheltenham on good-to-soft. I think that confounds any further argument.

    I believe little Top Notch can crank out a 165 performance over fences with his jumping and potential improvement at 2m 4f factored in. Yorkhill would laugh at that over hurdles last year, but I think you’re dreaming if you look his runs this year and see a horse who is primed to run 170 over fences in 3 days time.

    This race really does cause a divide. I like it, maybe it will make me think things I otherwise wouldn’t, but I am sticking to my guns on Yorkhill. He regularly pulled too hard and jumped clumsily over hurdles, but he has the engine to get away with it. Is his jumping a concern, yes, but I was fairly impressed with his winning chasing debut at Fairyhouse which saw him head straight to the front of the JLT market, perhaps more on reputation than ability. Jumping left doesn’t worry me around Cheltenham and I thought the schooling session showed when he gets into a rhythm he jumps well. I expect Disko to go off a clip and set this up for Yorkhill to sit in behind. Ruby knows his quirks. If he gets round he wins, IMO of course. I have Top Notch at 20’s LostSoldier so if I am wrong about Yorkhill let’s hope you are right about Top Notch! Good luck

    #1291565
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Yorhill is by presenting, one of the three current sires who has an outstanding cheltenham festival record.

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