JLT Novices Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2017 JLT Novices Chase

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 225 total)
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  • #1283342
    Johnnyjobbler
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9

    I like Clan des Obeaux for this at a price. He was beaten by whisper last time out, but would have been a lot closer if not making a bad mistake.
    He looked a world beater the run before that, and I think the bookies overreacted to his defeat to whisper. He’s still a young horse and has improvement in him.

    Haymount is another I think could run a good race at a decent price.

    #1283343
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    I haven’t backed Yorkhill. If I had, I’d have no concerns about his jumping. Everything works as it should as he showed with those two jumps filmed from behind going away from the stands – he has a powerful leap on him and all he needs is experience. I suspect that going left late on was him actually beginning to learn that he needs to be on the correct stride. He’ll be a fine jumper after another three or four races.

    I’m less convinced about his ability to conserve energy. He’s a long striding, powerful traveller and looked to me as though he takes a fair bit out of himself. I could see him getting done up the hill.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1283346
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4525

    I haven’t backed Yorkhill. If I had, I’d have no concerns about his jumping. Everything works as it should as he showed with those two jumps filmed from behind going away from the stands – he has a powerful leap on him and all he needs is experience. I suspect that going left late on was him actually beginning to learn that he needs to be on the correct stride. He’ll be a fine jumper after another three or four races.

    Even if you are correct, and I would say there is a big doubt, he hasn’t got three or four runs before Cheltenham. His jumping should have improved from his chasing debut, it didn’t and that was with the advantage of going left-handed. Why should it suddenly improve for a third or fourth run? He has twice got away with jumping left because the opposition have been vastly inferior. It won’t wash against better horses. Given his kinks he was very fortunate to get the perfect passage in the Neptune. Swap track positions and Yanworth would probably have been beaten him. I suspect this horse is always going to have his flaws and it is just a question of how long he can keep getting away with it.

    #1283351
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    Well I did say three or four to make him a fine jumper. He’ll be safe and more than adequate until then (better than many of his rivals) in my view.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1283357
    JJMSportsJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2034

    IF he learns to settle he could be really special, but boy is he keen.

    #1283363
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    I like Clan des Obeaux for this at a price. He was beaten by whisper last time out, but would have been a lot closer if not making a bad mistake.
    He looked a world beater the run before that, and I think the bookies overreacted to his defeat to whisper. He’s still a young horse and has improvement in him.

    Haymount is another I think could run a good race at a decent price.

    Good luck with that project but Clan Des Obeaux is 0/3 at Cheltenham- hardly inspires confidence.

    #1283364
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Really, really poor from Yorkhill. Gangster has run no race and the second is pretty ordinary. Doubt he could have found much more than a length and even going left handed his jumping was again all over the place. He wins nothing at Cheltenham on that evidence.

    ‘Doubt he could have found much more than a length’

    Based on what? He never came off the bridle so you have no idea how much in hand Ruby had.

    The horse isn’t being trained for a handicap. How many Mullins hotpots do you see win like that? If he had enough in the tank he would have been pushed out to win eight lengths. He knew if he asked he would have looked even worse but clearly he managed to fool some people who are clinging to ante-post vouchers. The trainer has said that he isn’t concerned about the horse jumping left. I suppose you believe that too?

    jaysus you’re rather hard on the horse Stilvi. He’s 1/1 at Cheltenham festival and trained by a master. Hard horse to knock but somehow you’ve managed it . :scratch:

    #1283365
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8706

    I haven’t backed Yorkhill. If I had, I’d have no concerns about his jumping. Everything works as it should as he showed with those two jumps filmed from behind going away from the stands – he has a powerful leap on him and all he needs is experience. I suspect that going left late on was him actually beginning to learn that he needs to be on the correct stride. He’ll be a fine jumper after another three or four races.

    Even if you are correct, and I would say there is a big doubt, he hasn’t got three or four runs before Cheltenham. His jumping should have improved from his chasing debut, it didn’t and that was with the advantage of going left-handed. Why should it suddenly improve for a third or fourth run? He has twice got away with jumping left because the opposition have been vastly inferior. It won’t wash against better horses. Given his kinks he was very fortunate to get the perfect passage in the Neptune. Swap track positions and Yanworth would probably have been beaten him. I suspect this horse is always going to have his flaws and it is just a question of how long he can keep getting away with it.

    Yorkhill winning the ‘Neptune’ last year was the highlight of the festival in visual terms,he looked like a World beater but I certainly haven’t seen one performance since that day that has been anywhere near that Cheltenham run.Todays performance left me feeling deflated again but it would be contrary of me to say he’s not as good as I once thought when I’m still singing last years winner Black Hercules praises.When TAPK’s confidence is high its the time I get stuck into my selections and in this race I think the course specialist Whisper will give ‘Yorkhill’ a fright.£50 e/w with Bet365 will do for now.

    #1283383
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    Gord, I think there’s a strong chance Whisper will be RSA bound

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1283391
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8706

    Gord, I think there’s a strong chance Whisper will be RSA bound

    Joe if the RSA was at Aintree I would agree with you but I dont think Whisper actually gets the 3m trip at Cheltenham,he’s a 21/2m specialist round there and I would be modestly confident my target choice is bang on pal.There’s only ‘Yorkhill’ to beat so at worse he’s a place certainty and at 12/1 that will do for me.I can actually picture these 2 both cantering 3 out with both Davy and Ruby waiting to see who will commit first.

    #1283393
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Is Whisper that great? I haven’t seen him beat any top horses.

    #1283394
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Gord, I think there’s a strong chance Whisper will be RSA bound

    Joe if the RSA was at Aintree I would agree with you but I dont think Whisper actually gets the 3m trip at Cheltenham,he’s a 21/2m specialist round there and I would be modestly confident my target choice is bang on pal.There’s only ‘Yorkhill’ to beat so at worse he’s a place certainty and at 12/1 that will do for me.I can actually picture these 2 both cantering 3 out with both Davy and Ruby waiting to see who will commit first.

    I think Yorkhill will be the only one cantering in that scenario

    #1283399
    VautourVautour
    Participant
    • Total Posts 623

    Is Whisper that great? I haven’t seen him beat any top horses.

    Not that he’s great but I think 12/1 is good value if you can be sure he will turn up there. Who else is there?

    #1283400
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    No but TAPK was giving the impression that he was as good as yorkhill and I don’t think he’s in the same league

    #1283401
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8706

    Gord, I think there’s a strong chance Whisper will be RSA bound

    Joe if the RSA was at Aintree I would agree with you but I dont think Whisper actually gets the 3m trip at Cheltenham,he’s a 21/2m specialist round there and I would be modestly confident my target choice is bang on pal.There’s only ‘Yorkhill’ to beat so at worse he’s a place certainty and at 12/1 that will do for me.I can actually picture these 2 both cantering 3 out with both Davy and Ruby waiting to see who will commit first.

    I think Yorkhill will be the only one cantering in that scenario

    ‘Judge’ and ‘bladebuster’.. TAPK is busy designing a £12k Bathroom for a customer this morning whilst waiting to go on a Driver rehabilitation course for running up my 24th penalty point so any excuse to talk horses suits…
    I remember 3 yrs ago,the build up to the festival and I was studying the ‘Coral Cup’…I had already backed Get me out of Here at 20/1,he was an annual bet for me,he epitomised schooling in public and being trained for one race only,I knew it was the Coral cup as he had been robbed of it 2 yrs earlier by a handicap good thing,in between he’d ran in the World hurdle but failed,prior to that he was robbed in both the ‘Supreme’ and ‘County’ hurdles…Bloody horse always got mugged on the line but I knew he was a plot horse and even they get beat.Anyway I’m happy with my 20/1 e/w about him for the 2014 Coral cup…I’m trying to find a horse that could give him a run for his money and I liked Whisper,I had just seen him get beat by ‘Saphir du rheu’ and I can remember saying on here at the time he’d never beat him again,’Saphir’ was the 10/1 Ante-Post fav at the time for the Coral cup,’Whisper’ was 16/1.Anyway come the day TAPK’s going to war with 2 big chances in the race,well in my mind they were,I think they both went off double figure prices on the day but I would have got the biggest prices as 99% of my bets are at bigger than SP and that in itself helps,another reason for taking the price on ‘Whisper’ now as he will definitely be single figures on the day.Another reason for not backing him in the RSA is that Nicky Henderson has a massive player in Might Bite for that so it always pays to look at the declarations to see just whats entered where.Mullins is brilliant at multi entries just to smokescreen the betting public so you have to think like a Trainer at times too,they are creatures of habit.So having watched ‘Yorkhill’ several times since last March I’ve noticed a fragility in both his mentality and physicallity and I can see him folding under pressure.What I haven’t seen is that exuberance he had in the Neptune,if he shows that again and you will see it within the space of jumping 3 fences then we’re all in trouble but he’s 6/4fav now and ‘Whisper’ is 12/1 so an e/w bet on him has a bigger chance of returning a profit on the race.I dont see beyond these 2 at all and could see ‘Whisper’ going off around 6/1 on the day.Anyway now I’ve told you just another ‘Why I’m so brilliant’ story I have to go and say Why I’m so bad at driving at 36mph in a 30mph zone for the 3rd time…Last time the ‘Tutor’ asked “Any questions” I put my hand up and said “Whats the most popular sign on a country road”…He looked bewidered and said…”Go on”…..”Fresh farm Eggs for sale” I said…Of course I pissed myself at my own joke. :yahoo:

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