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King had a virus and out of form at last year’s Cheltenham and Yanworth had to come the long way around whilst Yorkhill got a dream run up the inner. Yorkhill was undoubtedly impressive in the Neptune, but anyone taking Yanworth as a guide to the Mullins horse may be disappointed.
Value Is EverythingIndeed GT, good point.
This is probably the most interesting of the open novices’ chases. It features some excellent jumpers with the bold Politologue and springy Top Notch already worth a place in the top 5% of the racehorse population for accuracy.
In contrast, I don’t know if Yorkhill belongs in the top 75%. He is a horrendous jumper. Can you think of a horse who dived so violently one way who truly fulfilled their potential even going ‘the right way’ around? Gloria Victis might be one if you offer up his Racing Post Chase win. Racing Demon? Captain Chris? They were horses who got by with physical problems, were capable of showing smart form on a good day but had rather frustrating and unfulfilled careers overall. Given that Willie Mullins is left with just Footpad and Wicklow Brave in the Champion Hurdle, I take it as a negative for Yorkhill’s wellbeing that he was not switched that way. Even a harsh reading of his Neptune win wouldn’t leave him with that much to find. He’d have a better chance than Footpad at least.
With Yorkhill looking so opposable, I took Top Notch 8/1 e/w after his Sandown win. He wouldn’t beat a peak Yorkhill in a 2m 4f flat race, but his efficiency through the air will earn him lengths. He’s a good traveller, seems to be enjoying the step-up in trip and looks like one of those Best Mate types who can beat superior animals by outjumping them at Grade 1 tracks.
Politologue has fairly similar claims, though he has slightly less raw ability than Top Notch and needs to prove himself on the ground. Even now, I think little Top Notch is the better value of the pair at the prices. Disko is another nice enthusiastic type who makes a good shape, but he has a bit to find on the bare form.
I just don’t know how you can’t love Top Notch. He could become my favourite horse in training if he brings this home!
If you don’t want to know the bare facts about Top Notch, then please look away now.
Top Notch is generally a horse who has won in races with very little depth to them.
His eight wins in the UK have been at the following odds:-
11/8, 3/10, 2/13, 4/11, 1/8, 2/5, 4/5 and last time his personal best of 11/4. You have more or less been able to set your watch that he gets beat when tackling a race where he’s not hot favourite.
Looking at one of his better runs in the Triumph Hurdle, there is no other conclusion that can be taken, other than that the race was a load of rubbish. Winner Peace And Co was bobbins afterwards and third horse Hargam was bobbins to the power of two.
Top Notch beat horses who didn’t have one good jump between them last time out and Clan Des Obeaux, the favourite, ran like a drain.
He’s small, and something of a pet in the yard, both factors that tend to attract support from racing fans but liking a horse does not mean it is any more likely to win and I think 3/1 for Top Notch is abysmal value. He has done nothing since he last won, yet he was 10/1 in the aftermath of that win and 40% of those odds at best now, for no reason at all really.
I think he is well overrated.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Top Notch is a bit stiff backed and in danger of making a serious blunder, probably coming down the hill. Nil from two at the track and nil from one on good ground. Very skinny.
Yorkhill has taken some abuse for his jumping. But his technique is sound and a deal more reliable than Top Notch’s I’d say. He goes left sometimes but that wouldn’t bother me.
Indeed GT, good point.
This is probably the most interesting of the open novices’ chases. It features some excellent jumpers with the bold Politologue and springy Top Notch already worth a place in the top 5% of the racehorse population for accuracy.
In contrast, I don’t know if Yorkhill belongs in the top 75%. He is a horrendous jumper. Can you think of a horse who dived so violently one way who truly fulfilled their potential even going ‘the right way’ around? Gloria Victis might be one if you offer up his Racing Post Chase win. Racing Demon? Captain Chris? They were horses who got by with physical problems, were capable of showing smart form on a good day but had rather frustrating and unfulfilled careers overall. Given that Willie Mullins is left with just Footpad and Wicklow Brave in the Champion Hurdle, I take it as a negative for Yorkhill’s wellbeing that he was not switched that way. Even a harsh reading of his Neptune win wouldn’t leave him with that much to find. He’d have a better chance than Footpad at least.
With Yorkhill looking so opposable, I took Top Notch 8/1 e/w after his Sandown win. He wouldn’t beat a peak Yorkhill in a 2m 4f flat race, but his efficiency through the air will earn him lengths. He’s a good traveller, seems to be enjoying the step-up in trip and looks like one of those Best Mate types who can beat superior animals by outjumping them at Grade 1 tracks.
Politologue has fairly similar claims, though he has slightly less raw ability than Top Notch and needs to prove himself on the ground. Even now, I think little Top Notch is the better value of the pair at the prices. Disko is another nice enthusiastic type who makes a good shape, but he has a bit to find on the bare form.
I just don’t know how you can’t love Top Notch. He could become my favourite horse in training if he brings this home!
You think Yorkhill is a horrendous jumper
Funny how this race and these two horses are causing such a divide!
For me, Top Notch looks like such an intelligent quick-thinking horse. He consistently outjumps more flamboyant types, always lands running and showed great balance to make light of his only serious mistake so far. I fully accept he has ability limitations – he’s a 158 hurdler, which seems like a bang-on rating for everything he achieved over timber. Still, I really believe he is one of those chasers – like a Best Mate, a Kylemore Lough or a Grey Abbey, who will squeeze out a few lbs over fences through his jumping.
Cheltenham and decent ground don’t worry me at all. The best adjusted hurdles figure of his life was clocked at Cheltenham on good-to-soft. I think that confounds any further argument.
I believe little Top Notch can crank out a 165 performance over fences with his jumping and potential improvement at 2m 4f factored in. Yorkhill would laugh at that over hurdles last year, but I think you’re dreaming if you look his runs this year and see a horse who is primed to run 170 over fences in 3 days time.
Funny how this race and these two horses are causing such a divide!
For me, Top Notch looks like such an intelligent quick-thinking horse. He consistently outjumps more flamboyant types, always lands running and showed great balance to make light of his only serious mistake so far. I fully accept he has ability limitations – he’s a 158 hurdler, which seems like a bang-on rating for everything he achieved over timber. Still, I really believe he is one of those chasers – like a Best Mate, a Kylemore Lough or a Grey Abbey, who will squeeze out a few lbs over fences through his jumping.
Cheltenham and decent ground don’t worry me at all. The best adjusted hurdles figure of his life was clocked at Cheltenham on good-to-soft. I think that confounds any further argument.
I believe little Top Notch can crank out a 165 performance over fences with his jumping and potential improvement at 2m 4f factored in. Yorkhill would laugh at that over hurdles last year, but I think you’re dreaming if you look his runs this year and see a horse who is primed to run 170 over fences in 3 days time.
This race really does cause a divide. I like it, maybe it will make me think things I otherwise wouldn’t, but I am sticking to my guns on Yorkhill. He regularly pulled too hard and jumped clumsily over hurdles, but he has the engine to get away with it. Is his jumping a concern, yes, but I was fairly impressed with his winning chasing debut at Fairyhouse which saw him head straight to the front of the JLT market, perhaps more on reputation than ability. Jumping left doesn’t worry me around Cheltenham and I thought the schooling session showed when he gets into a rhythm he jumps well. I expect Disko to go off a clip and set this up for Yorkhill to sit in behind. Ruby knows his quirks. If he gets round he wins, IMO of course. I have Top Notch at 20’s LostSoldier so if I am wrong about Yorkhill let’s hope you are right about Top Notch! Good luck
Yorhill is by presenting, one of the three current sires who has an outstanding cheltenham festival record.
Yorhill is by presenting, one of the three current sires who has an outstanding cheltenham festival record.
Who should improve for better ground
I might be way wide of the mark here (as I so often am these days) and I respect Yorkhill, but given the doubts over his jumping and ability to settle, I’ve come to the conclusion that POLITOLOGUE is the outstanding value bet in this.
Earlier in the season there was a lot of hype around this horse after a breathtaking display at ascot, but subsequent defeat at haydock dampened that down quite a lot. I think the ground and the fact that he was forced to make his own running was partly contributing to that, and the good ground he’ll get here will help his jumping and I think he could be greatly underestimated by the market.
I might be way wide of the mark here (as I so often am these days) and I respect Yorkhill, but given the doubts over his jumping and ability to settle, I’ve come to the conclusion that POLITOLOGUE is the outstanding value bet in this.
Earlier in the season there was a lot of hype around this horse after a breathtaking display at ascot, but subsequent defeat at haydock dampened that down quite a lot. I think the ground and the fact that he was forced to make his own running was partly contributing to that, and the good ground he’ll get here will help his jumping and I think he could be greatly underestimated by the market.
Are you changing your mind on a day to day basis Judge? One minute it’s Yorkhill all the way and then Politologue is the best bet in years
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I might be way wide of the mark here (as I so often am these days) and I respect Yorkhill, but given the doubts over his jumping and ability to settle, I’ve come to the conclusion that POLITOLOGUE is the outstanding value bet in this.
Earlier in the season there was a lot of hype around this horse after a breathtaking display at ascot, but subsequent defeat at haydock dampened that down quite a lot. I think the ground and the fact that he was forced to make his own running was partly contributing to that, and the good ground he’ll get here will help his jumping and I think he could be greatly underestimated by the market.
Are you changing your mind on a day to day basis Judge? One minute it’s Yorkhill all the way and then Politologue is the best bet in years
Well it’s true my lack of confidence is eroding my judgement… and probably my marbles
I don’t really know what’s going to win… I’m not an expert like you Steve! I’m just a guesser.
Just lay whatever I put up that seems a fairly sound system
Got 7/1 each way ante-post Top Notch and just done win bets on 13/2 Politologue and 28/1 Kilcrea Vale.
Value Is EverythingGot 7/1 each way ante-post Top Notch and just done win bets on 13/2 Politologue and 28/1 Kilcrea Vale.
My 100% Book:
15/8 Yorkhill, 100/30 Top Notch, 11/2 Politologue, 13/2 Disko, 16/1 Flying Angel, 20/1 Kilcrea Vale, 40/1 Balko Des Flos, 400/1 Baily Cloud.Value Is EverythingI like Top Notch a lot, and Politilogue has loads to like about him but, really, Mullins horses can’t keep on running like shite all week, can they?
Can they?
Can they…
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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