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As Politilogue is also a 6yo I just do not think he’s at that kind of level personally. Is he your idea of the winner Steve?
There have probably been several better JLT’s than this and that is part of the reason for siding with Politologue. It’s not a confident pick by any means. I did feel Waiting Patiently was the best value, because he had beaten Politologue and over the last year his rating had improved by more than two stones (120 to 151) in just four races. Those four wins were preceded by two second places and a form line of 221111, with not much to make up on ratings to be competitive meant that he seemed the value to me at 16/1-20/1.
I started to get a bad feeling that Waiting Patiently might not run and so I put a few quid on Politologue, based on him giving 3 lbs to the Jefferson horse when beaten a length and a quarter. It was a tight call between the two and I was really picking the horse at the bigger odds on value grounds. I feel Politologue is solid enough each-way here and at 8/1 he seemed about 3 points bigger than I would be offering myself as a bookie.
I think Politologue is a good, sound, jumper and I am not sure Yorkhill is actually even fully adequate so far over fences. Politologue is already better rated over fences than he was over hurdles. I think people tend to take the view that sometimes the bigger obstacles help make the difference but I feel it is probably as much to do with younger horses improving for the passing of time and starting to mature.
Yorkhill is a Neptune winner but Yanworth was a shade disappointing that day as favourite. Alan King later said his horses were simply out of form at Cheltenham last season and mused that he peaked earlier when he was winning across the country on a memorable Saturday when the trials were taking place.
Maybe Yanworth will go out there and win the Champion Hurdle, starting an avalanche of cash for Yorkhill later in the week but on visual evidence so far I am leaning towards Yanworth lacking the pace in the big one and perhaps a cloud may drift over Yorkhill by association.
The Racing Post news report headline for Yorkhill’s last run stated that the horse “Never came off the bridle the entire race”, it certainly wasn’t THAT comfortable, albeit that it was pretty straightforward. Yorkhill has tended to tackle pretty soft targets and the Neptune is a clear, and pretty much sole, personal best.
All the best to those who are on heavy, and/or who have him as a banker in multiples. He simply has enough reason for me to feel he is vulnerable at short enough odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry, but my paragraphing wasn’t accepted in my previous post??
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yorkhill is third behind Altior and Douvan in terms of banker material IMO.
Kevin Blake did an interesting piece analysing Yorkhill’s last run – http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/23-January-2017
Well worth a read for supporters and doubters alike.
The Schooling session is bound to split opinion. First 3 were not great, 4 was perfect and 5 and 6 he got a little short but was smart to correct himself.
Yorkhill undoubtedly wants something to go off in front at a decent pace so he can tuck in behind. Hopefully Disko will do exactly that. Politologue will be made to look ordinary against Yorkhill, not a fan of his at all.
Yorkhill bolts up
If Yorkhill jumps around he wins
but will he?
That’s it isn’t it. I think he will.
Yorkhill’s myth is quite something.
The JLT is a better race than last year’s Neptune, so i’ve taken him on with Disko and might back something on the day depending on the DOR market.
If Disko goes off from the front like he did at Leopardstown then that will set the race up perfectly for Yorkhill and as a Yorkhill backer I hope he does
It’s amazing how a horse can divide the public so much. I’d be of the opinion that Yorkhill is head and shoulders above these ability wise and will be hoping the bookmakers take him on on Thursday morning.
I would have been happy to take him on with Coney Island but with that one out I can’t see what troubles him. I don’t agree that this is a better race than last year’s Neptune – those behind him in the market are plenty short for me.
I’d far and away prefer to be backing Yorkhill at 7/4 than Top Notch, Politologue or Disko at 4/1 or 5/1. There are two concerns for me: his jumping and his attitude. Regards his attitude, I think he is totally genuine but he can do things his own way as we saw at Leopardstown on Sunday. How he won at Aintree last season was miraculous given the way he behaved throughout the race.
His jumping is probably a bigger concern. He has jumped to his left on both chase starts and you’d have to hope that he’ll straighten out when travelling quicker but that is by no means a guarantee. He is definitely not as safe a proposition as Vautour was two years ago. However, he doesn’t face the same quality of opposition imo. Of the three behind him in the market, Disko is probably the one with the most potential to improve, but he’s had a couple of right set-to’s at Leopardstown and he has thrown in a stinker on more than one occasion.
Yorkhill will probably win by a couple of lengths imo, and may well be the only shortie I’ll be getting involved with.
I think there’s a physical or mental issue which forces him to jump left on occasions and there are some very good horses in this race. Yorkhill has beaten nothing so far over fences and won a terrible Neptune. He’ll get beaten unless he’s knocked the others over before they turn for home.
I don’t think the Neptune is that much wore than what this JLT could be. He won at his leisure with bundles in hand and come Tuesday evening it could well be that the Champion Hurdler was second to him. Top Notch couldn’t land a blow in a Champion Hurdle and I doubt the rest of these could either. If Yorkhill was in it he’d be favourite for sure. However, jumping can be a great leveler (no pun intended) and that’s the concern with him.
It’s amazing how a horse can divide the public so much. I’d be of the opinion that Yorkhill is head and shoulders above these ability wise and will be hoping the bookmakers take him on on Thursday morning.
I would have been happy to take him on with Coney Island but with that one out I can’t see what troubles him. I don’t agree that this is a better race than last year’s Neptune – those behind him in the market are plenty short for me.
I’d far and away prefer to be backing Yorkhill at 7/4 than Top Notch, Politologue or Disko at 4/1 or 5/1. There are two concerns for me: his jumping and his attitude. Regards his attitude, I think he is totally genuine but he can do things his own way as we saw at Leopardstown on Sunday. How he won at Aintree last season was miraculous given the way he behaved throughout the race.
His jumping is probably a bigger concern. He has jumped to his left on both chase starts and you’d have to hope that he’ll straighten out when travelling quicker but that is by no means a guarantee. He is definitely not as safe a proposition as Vautour was two years ago. However, he doesn’t face the same quality of opposition imo. Of the three behind him in the market, Disko is probably the one with the most potential to improve, but he’s had a couple of right set-to’s at Leopardstown and he has thrown in a stinker on more than one occasion.
Yorkhill will probably win by a couple of lengths imo, and may well be the only shortie I’ll be getting involved with.
The one massive thing you’ve got on your side with Yorkhill is you know he powers up the hill, which is more than you can say for most horses that run at the festival
if he jumps well enough to be there or thereabouts at the last then he’ll surely fly past them on the run in, the question is how much might go wrong beforehand
I’d be happy to take 7-4 as hardly can be 7-4 on that he’ll fall and if doesn’t I think he’ll win
I don’t think the Neptune is that much wore than what this JLT could be. He won at his leisure with bundles in hand and come Tuesday evening it could well be that the Champion Hurdler was second to him. Top Notch couldn’t land a blow in a Champion Hurdle and I doubt the rest of these could either. If Yorkhill was in it he’d be favourite for sure. However, jumping can be a great leveler (no pun intended) and that’s the concern with him.
Do you really think he won the Neptune at his own leisure?! I’d say he was given a brilliant ride by Ruby, Yanworth was given a stinker by Barry and the best horse finished second.
Yanworth doesn’t have the cruising speed of yorkhill
Possibly. I personally would have had Yanworth in the WH. Though based on last seasons neptune I wouldn’t totally agree.
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