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I find Joe’s jumping analysis a little puzzling too Stilvi, but could you explin why the Peter Marsh isn’t much of an improvement? Winning without coming under maximum pressure by 22 lengths and 3 1/2 from horses on marks of 151 and 149, giving them 3 and 5 lbs seems worth rating highly imo. Handicapper has allowed for it being very soft ground by only rating BDM 166.
Joes analysis of a horses ability to jump is spot on,he sees every idiosyncracy and I rate it highly…His ability to get a horse to cross the finishing line first is more puzzling Ginge.
Those who cant see Bristol de Mai is a Gold cup horse are the same who wouldn’t have given Synchronised and Lord Windermere a chance either.
Oh and anyone looking for a 120/1 outsider who will outrun those odds need look no further than Blaklion…Come on Stilvi tell us the RSA forms rubbish too.
Agree with you guys that Joes ability to decipher and analyse a horses jumping ability and technique is second to none, makes me feel like an absolute schoolboy in the field. Love reading your posts Joe, makes me realise how much there is to learn and how the small intricacies can have such a large impact on a horses performance.
Stilvi and GT, what is it about that analysis that puzzles you?
Think you’re over analysing, Joe. Looking for problems when there’s not a problem there. Horses jump differently and there’s more than one way to jump well. On soft ground BDM is one of the best jumpers in the country. Not only does he jump accurately but does it consistently. To me, it appears an excellent technique, not that I care what technique he shows as long as it remains accurate and consistent. Only question mark is whether he’s as good a jumper on good ground.
Value Is EverythingStilvi and GT, what is it about that analysis that puzzles you?
Think you’re over analysing, Joe. Looking for problems when there’s not a problem there.
Over analysing….
Thats rich coming from someone who does that to every race you bet in.Joes jumping analysis of horses like ‘Cue Card’ and ‘Yorkhill’ are spot on,he recognises horses who dont arch there backs and launch themselves at fences perfectly..Maybe its just that you cant spot these critical idiosyncracies Ginge BDM won’t win the Gold Cup this year…
Of course he won’t. Not good enough, it’s that simple.
Is it? Did you watch Saturday? Tore a decent field apart without coming off the bridle.
I think he’s a solid each way bet and have played him. If Thistlecrack blunders and comes down, BDM will go very close. It’s a below average field aside from one absolute superstar.
First thing is he’s only a 6yo and you can see physically he’s still growing,he jumps and travels loves soft ground but will handle good ground,his form is consistent and his figures already suggest he’s an e/w palyer.
So you’ve changed your mind Gord. :lol:
Value Is EverythingThink someone said it already that he’s a Haydock Specialist so could be a good shout for next years Betfair
Ben and Gord, thanks for the kind words.
The easily bored might want to move on now…
The characteristics of classy horses as individuals has fascinated me for a long time with jumping foremost in mind but not discounting other quirks. I won’t raise past posts here but concentrate on Bristol De Mai – an equine example of a kind of Schrodinger’s Cat (who, it was posited, might be alive and dead at the same time). You might say BDM can be a good and bad jumper at the same time.
As mentioned in my previous post, he has the mechanics to be a consistently good jumper – powerful quarters, a big engine and a flexible back. But he uses up more energy than necessary at some fences (not all, but frequently enough for it to make a difference) by not tucking in his forelegs in a conventional way as he jumps.
You can see it in the pictures below in comparison to Thistlecrack, a fine, classical jumper of a fence (touch wood, for Saturday) and, in a more extreme example in Paint The Clouds jumping the water.
Now, I’m not saying he’s alone in jumping this way. I pay little attention to horses outside the top grade. But it’s in the top grade that such idiosyncrasies can mean the difference between winning and losing. By not tucking his forelegs properly beneath him, he is having to rise higher (by about the length of his cannon bone, maybe 8 or 9 inches to get his front legs clear of the fence. When he gets it right, as he did on Saturday (especially when the pace slowed), he looks a fine jumper. When he gets it wrong, one mistake usually leads to others (take a look at his previous Newcastle race, also in soft ground but he couldn’t get into a rhythm and was ‘not fluent’ at about six in a row down the far side).I don’t know if his front end habit can be fixed but he’s young enough to make it worth a try. Perhaps a thousand jumps in a loose school would give him more confidence on takeoff. What could make a big difference is teaching him to settle so that he can be dropped out and the pressure up front is off his jumping.
Anyway, he has an engine, a big one. And he has the frame. And he has what it takes to be a good jumper. As he develops he might even find that his engine is big enough to negate his jumping style (as Thistlecrack’s engine and fabulous scope allows him to throw those fantastic open-ditch jumps). What he will not get away with is making mistakes, mainly because it upsets his rhythm and very probably his confidence. And as things stand, he is most error-prone when the pace is fastest, which highlights his good performances in proper soft ground with the slower pace this brings.
Were he a consistent jumper, I’d happily back him each way in the Gold Cup. But the race is unlikely to be run sedately and he will make mistakes and those mistakes will cost him and his supporters dear.
If his jumping improves, there might be a Gold Cup in him once Thistlecrack steps down. This time around, I’ll be a place-layer.
Stilvi and GT, what is it about that analysis that puzzles you?
I don’t think I said I was puzzled. I could understand the defence of Thistlecrack, in fact I did my best to offer a bit of support, but I think there is danger of going into overkill. It is almost as if you are trying to create a little niche for yourself. I have no idea whether you are an ‘expert’ or just using two eyes like the rest of us? As ever only giving a personal opinion.
Yes, APK, that RSA form does look pretty average as well.
I think it is almost impossible to rate the Peter Marsh accurately. It wouldn’t surprise me if, bar the winner, there isn’t a single horse that has run to its best mark. Then you have the problem that in all likelihood Bristol De Mai might be 7-10lbs (possibly more) better at Haydock. Personally, I would struggle to see him as a 160 horse anywhere else.
Stilvi, Ginger was puzzled. You were ‘surprised’ by the theory. I expanded on it in the hope of lessening GT’s puzzlement and your capacity for surprise.
I’ve said often enough that my main interest in racing is the study of individuals and their quirks rather than form. It interests me greatly – more so than any other aspect of racing – so I write about it (not just on TRF). I’ve no doubt at all that many will see it as overkill and boring and that’s absolutely fine by me. Reading my posts is optional.
You’re not seriously comparing Bristol De Mai with the horse we both agree has the best jumping technique we’ve seen for a very long time, Joe?
Those are misleading stills. Bristol De Mai’s picture is at a point you’d expect him to be in that position; Having stood off and the picture taken some way before the fence. Paint The Clouds picture is taken whilst over the top of the fence. Take the pics at each other’s positions and you’d probably get the opposite results.
Only slight difference to Bristol De Mai than many other good jumpers is his legs are closer together in mid-flight, but from what I’ve seen does “tuck them in” at the right place. Yes, one mistake can lead to another, the same as any horse (bar one). However, to say he was “not fluent’ at about six in a row down the far side” is a massive exaggeration.
You say “What he will not get away with is making mistakes, mainly because it upsets his rhythm and very probably his confidence. And as things stand, he is most error-prone when the pace is fastest”… Again, the same as any horse, but he basically jumps fast (taking lengths out of rivals) and accurately. Any mistake will cost him, especially in a Gold Cup, same as any horse. But he’s never looked like falling or unseating and never been out of the first three. He’s had an off day – as any horse can – but on soft ground he’d be in my top 10 jumpers in the country.
One thing I would be a little concerned about is (like a lot of Jacob’s rides) doesn’t always find a great deal under pressure.
Value Is EverythingWhat could make a big difference is teaching him to settle so that he can be dropped out and the pressure up front is off his jumping.
I’d say it is usually the opposite. Horses dropped out have more pressure on their jumping.
Value Is EverythingMark, they’re not perfect examples but the best I could find after a fair bit of hunting around. The perspective looks different on them (the Thistlecrack one is on a closer zoom which compresses the foreground) but I think they are at about the same point in trajectory (though I’m not going to argue about it).
BDM looks as though he’s stood off but I don’t believe he has (look how close to the fence his back legs appear to be) His jumping style in having to raise his front legs higher gives the impression he has stood off.
Anyway, I went searching after watching him jump a few times on video. I know what I was seeing on video – he has an awkward way of coming up and I had to watch a few times to pin down what he was doing. Anyway, the still picture confirmed it in my mind and I’ll settle for that. Like witnesses at any incident many people watching the same thing see it differently.
I’m in danger of derailing the thread now (with a subject in which many have no interest) and I don’t believe I can usefully add anything more other than, as ever, the courtesy of answering direct questions. With that in mind – the comparison with Thistecrack; in trying to illustrate what a horse is doing ‘wrong’, what better example could be used than a classic example?
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