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TAPK has had a bottle of ‘Dom Perignon’ tonight celebrating yet another winner and he has decided after a serious bit of cogitating that Bristol de Mai is this years Gold cup winner.I have won £2k from ‘Thistlecrack’ and stand to win another grand if he does win but at Even money I wouldn’t touch him now. Laugh at this suggestion at your peril but I have had umpteen Gold Cup winners over the years…’Best Mate’ 7/2 2004, ‘War of Attrition’ 10/1 2006, ‘Denman’ 12/1 2008, ‘Imperial Commander’ 33/1 2010, ‘Synchronised’ 25/1 2012 ‘Lord Windermere’ 66/1 2014 and last years ‘Winner’ ‘Cue Card’ 20/1 2016…As you can see I have the winner every 2nd year so having been robbed last year its my turn again now.Some suggest Bristol de Mai won a weak race today but I’m not one of them,from the moment he set off I could see Winner written all over him today and he duly obliged.First thing is he’s only a 6yo and you can see physically he’s still growing,he jumps and travels loves soft ground but will handle good ground,his form is consistent and his figures already suggest he’s an e/w palyer.I would raise him to 165 after today and thats Gold cup class,he has the potential now to be a 170 horse.TAPK has lost £150 on ‘Black Hercules’ for the Gold Cup and he has another £200 on ‘Cue Card’ at e/w prices.I wouldn’t swap him for anything but if age does catch up with him like it did ‘Dynaste’ then ‘Twisters’ 6yo Grey is a fine young pretender imo. Ladbrokes 20/1 has been taken to £50 e/w and Corals 16/1 has £50 e/w too.This fellows price will contract to single figures for this as he really isn’t a Ryanair horse now..I’ll leave that to Black Hercules for that now the JLT form takes a massive boost.
As a fellow BDM lover/backer of yesterday and someone who has a terrible Gold Cup record bar Imperial Commander, I’m gonna stick a bet on BDM myself I think.
Inclined to wait 48 hours though as I have a feeling we may know where he’s going by Tuesday lunchtime.
There was a moment jumping round (about a mile into the race yesterday) when he flew over the fence and I just went ‘go on son, you’re f***ing flying here’. He really did look like the winner all the way round Gord.
TAPK, you’re smoking crack if you think Black Hercules is going to win anything this season. Had him for the JLT last year so I’ve a soft spot for him myself but he has been very very poor this season.
Might take a look at BDM but I’m happy enough with my 8/1 e/w on Djakadam in the betting without Thistlecrack market.
TAPK, you’re smoking crack if you think Black Hercules is going to win anything this season. Had him for the JLT last year so I’ve a soft spot for him myself but he has been very very poor this season.
Might take a look at BDM but I’m happy enough with my 8/1 e/w on Djakadam in the betting without Thistlecrack market.
I’ve never smoked in my life ‘Vautour’ but Black Hercules is certainly proving frustrating I agree.Trouble is I’m a great believer in horses re-producing their very best form only when conditions are identical to past glories and that usually involves connections doing their best to ‘target’ their horses.In the case of ‘Black Hercules’ it would appear the Ryanair will be the destination for such to take place.Of course there’s 2 ways of assessing this horses credentials for Cheltenham…The first one is he has blatantly failed to train on and shouldn’t even be considered to get on the ferry across the Irish sea at great expense,that could well be the case and those who dont fancy him wont be betting on him after those 3 dismal efforts….The 2nd one is quite simple too and the fact he’s trained by Willie Mullins makes it all the more believable and that is for whatever reason he’s being trained with one race in mind, the Ryanair and Willie is just ticking him over until that day arrives,he’s a big brute of a horse who must need ‘racecourse gallops’ to sharpen him up unlike those he can get fit at home.When he returns the 14/1 winner,backed on the day from 20/1 Willie tells us.”Its always been the plan since he won the JLT” and all is forgiven.I for one wont be surprised in the least to see the ‘Black Herc’ take off then.Of course he could also be well backed on the day and run like a Pig again and Willie just says ‘He’s never been himself all season’…Mullins has all the bases covered as we struggle on but this fellow was Ante-Post fav for the race for some time at a measly 7/1.Those of us who have stayed loyal have snaffled the 20’s and deserve to be rewarded for such.
Do you not reckon Mullins will be looking at the experienced Un De Sceaux to get it done in the Ryan Air? Cant see Ruby choosing Herc over UDS; even if UDS makes a mess next week..
Vezelay offers some value after his british debut at 100/1 likely to be shorter by next week, if alary is 33s he should be 20s
Do you not reckon Mullins will be looking at the experienced Un De Sceaux to get it done in the Ryan Air? Cant see Ruby choosing Herc over UDS; even if UDS makes a mess next week..
That would definitely seem the logical choice ‘Vautour’ but the logical choice would be to leave Black hercules at home so if he does turn up I’ll be collecting pal.
Do you not reckon Mullins will be looking at the experienced Un De Sceaux to get it done in the Ryan Air? Cant see Ruby choosing Herc over UDS; even if UDS makes a mess next week..
That would definitely seem the logical choice ‘Vautour’ but the logical choice would be to leave Black hercules at home so if he does turn up I’ll be collecting pal.
Man, I love your confidence. I wont be joining you on this occasion but if you’re right then I will congratulate you and bow to your superior foresight going forward.
For the record I have UDS at 6’s and Sizing John e/w at 8’s and I’m happy enough with that. If one of them turns up I’ll be happy to sit on my hands..Man, I love your confidence.
Vautour,Confidence is a strange thing.When I first joined this forum I was psychologically abused by a clique on here who rubbished my posts.Ok I did say ‘Exotic Dancer’ would beat ‘Kauto Star’ and that ‘Albertas Run’ would win the Gold cup but I’d already studied Ante-Post betting for 25yrs and knew I could make my prescence felt…It didn’t take long…As I shared Winner after Winner written in my inimitable way I was still being verbally abused and even physical abuse was threatened,now to someone like me who is very sensitive to violence you would expect it to hurt but I just kept letting my pen be my sword,well it was like a multi-tool really as I used it to paint a Masterpiece when I told the world ‘Art Connieusseur’would win the Golden Jubilee at 40/1 and all these years later I’m still doing it.There’s a well known Chinese proverb that says..”The Man who has to wake up to a Cock is Gay” and thats why I have 2 alarm clocks.
TAPK has had a bottle of ‘Dom Perignon’ tonight celebrating yet another winner and he has decided after a serious bit of cogitating that Bristol de Mai is this years Gold cup winner.I have won £2k from ‘Thistlecrack’ and stand to win another grand if he does win but at Even money I wouldn’t touch him now. Laugh at this suggestion at your peril but I have had umpteen Gold Cup winners over the years…’Best Mate’ 7/2 2004, ‘War of Attrition’ 10/1 2006, ‘Denman’ 12/1 2008, ‘Imperial Commander’ 33/1 2010, ‘Synchronised’ 25/1 2012 ‘Lord Windermere’ 66/1 2014 and last years ‘Winner’ ‘Cue Card’ 20/1 2016…As you can see I have the winner every 2nd year so having been robbed last year its my turn again now.Some suggest Bristol de Mai won a weak race today but I’m not one of them,from the moment he set off I could see Winner written all over him today and he duly obliged.First thing is he’s only a 6yo and you can see physically he’s still growing,he jumps and travels loves soft ground but will handle good ground,his form is consistent and his figures already suggest he’s an e/w palyer.I would raise him to 165 after today and thats Gold cup class,he has the potential now to be a 170 horse.TAPK has lost £150 on ‘Black Hercules’ for the Gold Cup and he has another £200 on ‘Cue Card’ at e/w prices.I wouldn’t swap him for anything but if age does catch up with him like it did ‘Dynaste’ then ‘Twisters’ 6yo Grey is a fine young pretender imo. Ladbrokes 20/1 has been taken to £50 e/w and Corals 16/1 has £50 e/w too.This fellows price will contract to single figures for this as he really isn’t a Ryanair horse now..I’ll leave that to Black Hercules for that now the JLT form takes a massive boost.
Not like me to be a 1lb out!…Bristol de Mai raised 12lb to a Gold cup class 166 this morning.
BDM won’t win the Gold Cup this year…
Of course he won’t. Not good enough, it’s that simple.
No question BDM is a big talent – Saturday proved that. His festival run behind Black Hercules was a fine one too given the errors and the ground and he was staying on again stoutly having set a good pace. If I was Twister I’d school him until he could jump cleanly blindfolded. He has most of the mechanics needed for a good jumper although he has an odd way of sticking his forelegs out sometimes rather than letting them drop naturally under him. It looks awkward and could play a part in unbalancing him. It’s a style that sometimes gives him the appearance of lunging at a fence – most unusual.
For such a straight, stride-out galloper, errors will affect him much more than the likes of the workmanlike get-over-somehow jumpers like Synchronised. Mistakes break BDM’s galloping rhythm as well as his jumping rhythm and I suspect they affect his confidence at fences. He wouldn’t be one to make just one error.
On his game which, ideally, is probably soft ground and a flat track (King George would be perfect), he’d be a match for almost anything as he continues to mature. His misfortune is having to face Thistlecrack. If Thistlecrack stays he wins. If BDM sets out at a hot pace to test that stamina, he’ll make mistakes and fold.
Were Thistlecrack somehow likely to miss the KG, I’d bet BDM for top value with a fair degree of confidence. If the current 25/1 is still available for the KG just prior to the Gold Cup, it’s worth taking as he could easily be single figures on the day.
BDM is a bloody good jumper in soft ground. Although ran well enough on form in the JLT, didn’t jump as well as usual on the faster surface. That could be because of the ground, could be because of the course. Is he best suited by a flat track? Considering Twister’s yard is close to Cheltenham has only run BDM once at the track. Particularly impressive two years on the trot at this Haydock (flat track) meeting, both times on very soft ground. It is too soon to give definite analysis of track and going, but such doubts lengthen the horse’s chance. Not ideal either that both Thistlecrack and Native River are front runners and there are other possible prominent runners amongst outsiders. So BDM is unlikely to get his own way in front. Although I’d describe him as a prominent runner rather than needs to lead and should be ok given at least some room. Point is he’s unlikely to be able to race the same way as Saturday. That said, it was an impressive performance in the Peter Marsh, improving and if able to show a bit more progression it’ll put him bang there. Nobody in their right mind could be confident of BDM showing his form, but it’s all about the price. At 20/1 there are a lot worse each way bets, worth taking a chance on the negatives. If I hadn’t already had three ante-post win only bets on the Gold Cup, probably would’ve taken 20’s. However, a scattergun ante-post approach without NRNB is a mugs game.
Value Is EverythingNo question BDM is a big talent – Saturday proved that. His festival run behind Black Hercules was a fine one too given the errors and the ground and he was staying on again stoutly having set a good pace. If I was Twister I’d school him until he could jump cleanly blindfolded. He has most of the mechanics needed for a good jumper although he has an odd way of sticking his forelegs out sometimes rather than letting them drop naturally under him. It looks awkward and could play a part in unbalancing him. It’s a style that sometimes gives him the appearance of lunging at a fence – most unusual.
For such a straight, stride-out galloper, errors will affect him much more than the likes of the workmanlike get-over-somehow jumpers like Synchronised. Mistakes break BDM’s galloping rhythm as well as his jumping rhythm and I suspect they affect his confidence at fences. He wouldn’t be one to make just one error.
On his game which, ideally, is probably soft ground and a flat track (King George would be perfect), he’d be a match for almost anything as he continues to mature. His misfortune is having to face Thistlecrack. If Thistlecrack stays he wins. If BDM sets out at a hot pace to test that stamina, he’ll make mistakes and fold.
Were Thistlecrack somehow likely to miss the KG, I’d bet BDM for top value with a fair degree of confidence. If the current 25/1 is still available for the KG just prior to the Gold Cup, it’s worth taking as he could easily be single figures on the day.
All these theories about the jumping I am a little bit surprised Yogi Breisner hasn’t signed you up.
Unless just about nothing turns up Bristol De Mai isn’t going to place in a Gold Cup. The form of the JLT is average at best and despite the wide margin of victory the form of Saturday’s race is probably not a lot better. It isn’t that unusual to see wide margin victories at Haydock on testing ground. Bristol De Mai clearly comes alive up that Haydock straight on soft ground. Personally, I would seriously think of missing Cheltenham and look at next year’s Betfair as a much more suitable race to see if he can mix it at top level.
I find Joe’s jumping analysis a little puzzling too Stilvi, but could you explin why the Peter Marsh isn’t much of an improvement? Winning without coming under maximum pressure by 22 lengths and 3 1/2 from horses on marks of 151 and 149, giving them 3 and 5 lbs seems worth rating highly imo. Handicapper has allowed for it being very soft ground by only rating BDM 166.
Value Is Everything
For the record I have UDS at 6’s and Sizing John e/w at 8’s and I’m happy enough with that. If one of them turns up I’ll be happy to sit on my hands..
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