- This topic has 224 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
So, just looking at a few basic trends for this, all winners had won a Graded novice chase, except for Noble Prince, who was beaten a shorthead in the Irish Arkle, so if you apply a bit of leeway, it catches everything.
British-bred horses don’t fare very well…but only 5 have run!
All 6 winners were all rated 140+ over hurdles. All 6 winners were 6 or 7. All 6 winners had previously run at the Festival. Black Hercules was the first winner not to have their prep in January. 5 of the 6 winners were trained in Ireland.
Whisper’s 9 and I’m not completely convinced by him. He was entitled to win on his debut and didn’t have a great deal to beat in the Dipper.
I like Waiting Patiently, who’s a big price, but his hurdles rating falls well short of 140, he’s not run at the Festival before and Jefferson said he only runs on soft. He also said he’d go for the Arkle if he ran, and only have an entry for the Arkle, but he’s in the JLT too. He was beaten over hurdles on good ground by Cloudy Dream. CD was beaten fairly comfortably today over 2m in the Lightning Novices’ Grade 2 Novices Chase. I backed him at 65s-80s a while ago and he’s still roughly that price. I’d expect him to step back up in trip and I think he’s a likely runner. He hasn’t won a Graded novice chase, but there’s still time. I just don’t think he’ll be good enough, but let’s worry about that after his participation is confirmed. He’s a dynamite jumper and will definitely be better over 2m 4f than 2m. But again, like WP, he’s not run at the Festival before and I’d imagine something’s too good for him. I also like American Tom, but he had problems LTO, hasn’t run at the Festival and doesn’t have a 140+ hurdles rating.
Buveur D’Air and Bleu Et Rouge don’t currently qualify as they haven’t won a Graded novice chase. Bleu Et Rouge runs in the Irish Arkle tomorrow + Buveur D’Air is going for the Scilly Isles.
Clan Des Obeaux, Might Bite, Identity Thief, Yorkhill, Min, Whisper and Bellshill all qualify at this stage. I’d expect Buveur D’Air to qualify, and I think Bleu Et Rouge will too. Just too early for this race to take shape. Obviously we’d expect Might Bite, Identity Thief, Min, Bellshill and possibly Clan Des Obeaux to run elsewhere or not run, but then again, Yorkhill, Buveur D’Air and Bleu Et Rouge are all flexible when it comes to their target I’d have thought. Whisper is probably the only qualifier whose participation is pretty much guaranteed, and it’s entirely possible that not a single one of the other 8 I’ve mentioned will run.
So I’ve just done one bet – £2 on Briar Hill at 1000. Might get a runner with him. Ex-Bumper winner and surely surely surely he’s now been shown up as a non-stayer over 3m. In the same ownership as Yorkhill/Bellshill. Hasn’t won a Graded novice chase but I’m not expecting him to win, I just think he’s worth a shout at 1000.
I think Whisper is the value here at best price 12/1 (ladbrokes). So many at the top of the market could be going elsewhere:
Yorkhill – could go CH or Arkle
Buveur Dair – might not qualify and could go CH if failing this weekend
Politologue – not convincing the other day
Bellshill – goes RSA
Might Bite – goes RSAWhisper has solid form in the book this season, cheltenham form inc festival form. Hopefully Davy will get the ride. No way this goes off anywhere near 12’s
I’m thinking along similar lines.
It’s an each way cert anyway!
Might add it to a few each way accasBye bye Buveur D’Air
Another one bites the dust.
Surprised by this, shows there not so confident on yanworth aswell i feel, godsend for yorkhill jlt backers, almost definitey confirms he runs here (aslong as faugheen remains on target)
godsend for yorkhill jlt backers, almost definitey confirms he runs here (aslong as faugheen remains on target)
Well, that’s exactly it. This race needs a lot of looking at now.
10’s on nrnb for whisper seems generous beuvur dair not running hasnt really hit the betting het, once it does whisper will be what 5s?
Meh, just went for Buveur d’Air after Yorkhill his last run. Too bad he is going to the Champion Hurdle. Whisper seems interesting indeed.
I wonder if JP is thinking of running Coney Island here now ?
Hope not. He’s in my RSA book.
Yorkhill to the Champion Hurdle, Bellshill to the JLT? Last matched at 16, the shortest price he’s been matched at since the market opened.
The more I look at this Top Notch is outstanding value at 20/1. Entered in the Champion Hurdle but the JLT is where he should end up. Hard to see the race at Ascot (because of the fog) but if you watch the race at Plumpton he jumps his fences beautifully (beat Romain De Senam easily conceding 12 lbs). I am a massive Yorkhill fan, but if I had the choice of backing Top Notch at 20’s or Yorkhill at 15/8 it’s an absolute no brainer in my book, not just based on ability, but also on how many of those ahead of Top Notch in the market are likely not to come out (Buveur Dair, Yorkhill, Might Bite, Coney Island).
Anyone wishing to have a punt on this should just back Whisper at 10s NRNB, forget about the Mullins merry go round and sit back and watch as all the opposition gets re routed to other races. You’ll be sat on a stress free 10/1 ticket thats probably gonna be half that on the day. Entered in the R.S.A. but i think he’ll never make the hill at top pace so the J.L.T it is.
Anyone wishing to have a punt on this should just back Whisper at 10s NRNB, forget about the Mullins merry go round and sit back and watch as all the opposition gets re routed to other races. You’ll be sat on a stress free 10/1 ticket thats probably gonna be half that on the day. Entered in the R.S.A. but i think he’ll never make the hill at top pace so the J.L.T it is.
Does he need soft ground though?
Anyone wishing to have a punt on this should just back Whisper at 10s NRNB, forget about the Mullins merry go round and sit back and watch as all the opposition gets re routed to other races. You’ll be sat on a stress free 10/1 ticket thats probably gonna be half that on the day. Entered in the R.S.A. but i think he’ll never make the hill at top pace so the J.L.T it is.
Does he need soft ground though?
I don’t think it matters to him nowadays. In his early years,he always showed his best on Spring ground but i think it all comes the same to him now
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.