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Definitely, just not a horse I want to back. A – don’t know for sure he’s going to run. If Douvan gets injured, he runs in the Queen Mum. B – I don’t know how good he is over 2m 5f (on the new course, which could kill his stamina)
Can you explain the significance of the new course?
He has run 3 miles so I’d say the trip wont be a problem. You are definitely correct that if Douvan gets sick then he’s in the CC but otherwise he should turn up here
He ran over 3m 1 1/2f on a flat track + finished a well beaten 6th. He did win over 2m 5f, but again, Auteuil’s a flat track. The long straight on the new course at Cheltenham really tests stamina. There’s a stat that strongly favours those who ran in the King George or another long distance Grade 1. I don’t remember it exactly. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the KG? Something like that.
2005 Thisthatandtother – had run between 2m and 2m 4f. Runner-up Fondmort ran in the King George.
2006 Fondmort – had been running over 2m 5f. Ran in the King George the previous season. Runner-up Lacdoudal ran over 3m in 3/6 starts that season. 3rd Impek ran in the King George.
2007 Taranis – prepped over 2m 6f. Runner-up Our Vic ran in the Charlie Hall + Cotswold. 3rd Billyvoddan prepped over 3m.
2008 Our Vic – King George
2009 Imperial Commander – King George. Odds-on VPU beaten – more of an Un De Sceaux type.
2010 Albertas Run – King George
2011 Albertas Run – King George
2012 Riverside Theatre – Ascot Chase (only run beforehand that season)
2013 Cue Card – King George
2014 Dynaste – King George
2015 Uxizandre – had been running over 2 miles
2016 Vautour – King GeorgeSo just looking at the winning profile, it’s rare to find something that steps up from 2m to win. Certainly the most recent winning profile suggests a stamina horse is preferable to a speedster…7 of the last 9 winners ran in the King George. One of them couldn’t try because they were injured. Not going to go into great detail but I think the 1-2-3 last year had all run in a Grade 1 over 3 miles that season. I’d just rather back a horse with proven stamina over further.
What’s interesting, looking at the betting, is that none of the market principles have a similar profile. Un De Sceaux’s going to be stepping up, ditto Sizing John (unless he runs in the Irish Hennessy?), Josses Hill did run in the King George but he’s just not a Grade 1 animal unfortunately, Black Hercules stepping up, etc etc etc.
Real shame Bristol De Mai doesn’t run here. He’d have a huge chance.
Fondmort, Our Vic and Albertas Run all nearly completed back-to-back wins, so it looks like a race that suits horses returning. In fact Albertas Run did of course complete back-to-back wins, and finished a neck 2nd when seeking a treble.
Very happy getting 140s+ on Road to Riches last night. He was due to run in the King George + finished 3rd last year. Only issue with him is that he looks a bit out of sorts at the moment. Real shame for Valseur Lido backers, looks like he’d have had a great chance.
Having found this info out, I now hate my bets on Aso and Cold March! Aso is entered tomorrow over CD however, which is what I was hoping for. If he can just turn up on the day, that’d be plenty.
I also had a fiver on Ar Mad at 65s, which I was going to conceal and keeping topping up on. But again, his profile just doesn’t really fit.
I’ve chucked a fiver at Ballycasey at 500s. Not the perfect profile, but he’s a horse I’ve liked for some time and he destroyed Road to Riches earlier in the season. Has run over further in the past. I think they’ve just struggled finding his preferred trip. Has an entry for next week. Again, if he just gets to the race I’d be very happy. I think this is probably his preferred race for Cheltenham?
Also chucked a fiver at Champagne Fever at 130s. Ran in the King George before + has Festival form. Ran over 2m 6f on his comeback. Likely not good enough.
If you’re on Empire of Dirt at fancy prices, I’m insanely jealous. Champagne West too. I think VtC has fancy prices about both of these? You must have an amazing Ryanair book, if I’ve remembered your bets correctly, VtC.
Bye Aso.
Uxizandre put in a brilliant performance there behind Un De Sceaux. They go to Cheltenham with great chances of winning this. As I said, repeat winners/good performances are common in this race, which would make Uxizandre an outstanding EW bet at 10/1, especially as you’d expect him to come on for the run after such a long layoff.
Btw despite Road to Riches’ form, I thought 75s + 80s was still too big and took it all 3:-D
Ill be snapping up the 63s on offer for Irish Cavalier! Probably smarter to go for the 33s and get NRNB but when has ante post gambling ever been smart
Oh wow, no don’t do that, please. He’s the slowest slow thing ever. No chance. I think they’d be better off getting his mark down and putting him in a National.
I will have Uxizandre firmly on side in this after that performance – 10/1. Going in an EW with Whisper JLT & ADO RSA. Will back each way on its own
Oh wow, no don’t do that, please. He’s the slowest slow thing ever. No chance. I think they’d be better off getting his mark down and putting him in a National.
Suit yourself. He has Cheltenham form which for me is one of THE most important factors to condsider when backing at the festival considering how unique a track it is, over a similar trip aswell. Plus he has an obvious preference for fast spring ground. By no means a nap but 66s is far too big to ignore.
Oh wow, no don’t do that, please. He’s the slowest slow thing ever. No chance. I think they’d be better off getting his mark down and putting him in a National.
Suit yourself. He has Cheltenham form which for me is one of THE most important factors to condsider when backing at the festival considering how unique a track it is, over a similar trip aswell. Plus he has an obvious preference for fast spring ground. By no means a nap but 66s is far too big to ignore.
Irish Cavalier’s record in Grade 1s: F455FP
Beaten, when completed, by 4 1/4L, 39L and 22L.
Slow.
Sorry Zark, just seen this, here’s what I have so far. Long way to go, but hopeful of making a profit, and already on the right track, thanks to Champagne West. After my terrible performance in the race last year, anything will be a bonus lol.
My state of play at the moment…..
Empire of Dirt 40’s win
Village Vic 70’s to 200’s
More of That 110’s to 170’s
Champagne West 120’s to 260’s Laid 24’s
Smad Place 150’s to 200’s
Long House Hall 160’s to 480’s
Saphir Du Rheu 210’s to 250’sWas happy with the runs of Smad & SDR today, and not totally written them off, though Uxizandre obviously was the horse to take out of the day for The Ryanair.
Oh I plan to lay all of them, bar Empire, to some degree. Lots to go wrong still, but if I’m being honest, I’ll be hacked off if I can’t get a profit out of that lot.
Is it set in stone Bristol de Mai is going for the Gold Cup? Bit of a shame really, still only 6 years old plenty of time to have a crack at it. Can be matched at 47s for this one and even the 10s with NRNB isn’t unbackable.
Although Im sure Thistlecrack getting beat today wont help the chances of him running here.
Yes it’s really a shame he’s likely headed for the Gold Cup. He’d have an outstanding chance in this.
Is it set in stone Bristol de Mai is going for the Gold Cup? Bit of a shame really, still only 6 years old plenty of time to have a crack at it. Can be matched at 47s for this one and even the 10s with NRNB isn’t unbackable.
Although Im sure Thistlecrack getting beat today wont help the chances of him running here.
He is entered in the Betfair Ascot Chase in 2 weeks against Cue Card, I doubt whether this race will enhance either’s chance in the Gold Cup. Kauto Star won this pulling a cart enroute to his defeat by Denman in the Gold Cup. If he get’s beat by Cue Card or something else he may well be rerouted to the Ryanair for which he is entered, those odds of 47/1 would look very attractive then, maybe worth a tenner.
Yes it’s really a shame he’s likely headed for the Gold Cup. He’d have an outstanding chance in this.
Bristol De Mai is too slow to win a Ryanair against the likes of UDS, Uxizandre, Sizing John etc (IMO of course). That being said, 20/1 NRNB (Paddypower) wouldn’t be a bad EW bet – 4/1 for a place about a horse that has never finished outside the top 3 in his career is decent, but looks to want a trip. If I had BDM at a huge price for the Ryanair I would be fuming that Thistlecrack was undone on the weekend as trainers will now be a lot more willing to take him on and I think BDM will fall into that category.
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