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Oh no. Many clouds has gone down after the race
Awful news. He’s not made it
Absolutely sick. What a loss Many Clouds is, such a brave horse who always
gave everything he had. It’s tragic.Ah that was ridiculous. Poor *******. He can laugh at my 50/1 EW Gold Cup ticket from up there! That was one of the best races I’ve ever seen and it’s really sad to see a hell of a racehorse gone :(
Thistlecrack’s action looks very quick ground to me. I wouldn’t worry if you’ve got him at fancy odds for the Gold Cup, just need to hope for good ground.
Has the bubble burst or not?
You would think so. I presume I am the only person who is not surprised given I was the only one on here to raise doubts about stopping at the end of the King George and the subsequent rating being about a stone too high. Both those thoughts were confirmed today.
I agree with you Zark, Thistlecrack is still the one to beat and should be
better suited by the ground in March. Still struggling to come to terms with
losing Many Clouds, I’m gutted.Has the bubble burst or not?
You would think so. I presume I am the only person who is not surprised given I was the only one on here to raise doubts about stopping at the end of the King George and the subsequent rating being about a stone too high. Both those thoughts were confirmed today.
I have to disagree Stilvi, I think the only thing that was confirmed today is that he
is an exceptional horse, beaten a head by a horse that ran the race of his life.Nah come on, came cruising up, went past a bit and then got outstayed. Needs better ground. Could be that he just gets outstayed on that long straight and he’ll be better around Aintree/Huntingdon/Kempton…if it stays open. Wouldn’t worry if you’ve got nice prices, he’ll be much better in 6 weeks time. That was a nice proper jumping test and he’ll improve for the run. Couple of small mistakes cost him valuable lengths.
Could be he doesn’t stay as well over fences. However, there are other possibilities.
Is a speed horse at the trip rather than a complete stayer, so better ground should suit.
As I said before, he hasn’t had to find anything off the bridle for a very very long time – unlike Many Clouds who always found masses – so Thistlecrack didn’t know what to do.
Also – as I’ve said before – his thrilling jumping has been done out in front or with plenty of room/clear view. Nowhere near as good at jumping today when in behind horses.
Another possibility is Many Clouds improved. The pair were 17 lengths clear of the third Smad Place.
Other possibility is Thistlecrack wasn’t quite right. Alary apparently wasn’t right last week, may be something in the yard.
Whatever anyone thought beforehand it’s possible to go by your own confirmation bias.
Value Is EverythingIt makes it more interesting and there will be better prices available on Thistlecrack on the day which is good for the race. He will be tested again in the Gold Cup. I have Djakadam at 16s e/w and Don Pole at 33s e/w. If the heavens open on Thursday evening then I think they have a chance.
Thistlecrack is still definitely the best horse in the race but his jumping will need to improve and I think it will. That experience today will do him the world of good. I dont but the “bubble is burst” talk…
Could be he doesn’t stay as well over fences. However, there are other possibilities.
Is a speed horse at the trip rather than a complete stayer, so better ground should suit.
As I said before, he hasn’t had to find anything off the bridle for a very very long time – unlike Many Clouds who always found masses – so Thistlecrack didn’t know what to do.
Also – as I’ve said before – his thrilling jumping has been done out in front or with plenty of room/clear view. Nowhere near as good at jumping today when in behind horses.
Another possibility is Many Clouds improved. The pair were 17 lengths clear of the third Smad Place.
Other possibility is Thistlecrack wasn’t quite right. Alary apparently wasn’t right last week, may be something in the yard.
Whatever anyone thought beforehand it’s possible to go by your own confirmation bias.
I wouldn’t expect Many Clouds to have improved that much at this age, but he just ran his usual true race.
Now, just consider one thing: the KG was a very tough race for him, no matter how easy he won it. And how many KG winners run in the Cotswold chase just 4 weeks later?That’s why I’m willing not to read too much into this defeat. But the GC will be a lot tougher than anything so far and his SP should be rather at around 3/1 than the previous 4/5 or so.
I wouldn’t say that, Ruby. Hedgehunter with a similar profile to him finished 2nd in the Gold Cup.
I wouldn’t expect Many Clouds to have improved that much at this age, but he just ran his usual true race.
Now, just consider one thing: the KG was a very tough race for him, no matter how easy he won it. And how many KG winners run in the Cotswold chase just 4 weeks later?That’s why I’m willing not to read too much into this defeat. But the GC will be a lot tougher than anything so far and his SP should be rather at around 3/1 than the previous 4/5 or so.
As “form” goes (distances back to 2nd and 3rd and all that) this was probably Thistlecrack’s best performance. Albeit King George was more impressive and had more in hand than distances suggest. Did say that I believe Timeform did over rate the King George at 180 when rated on distances beaten had him on a race performance Timeform rating of 167. May be allowing for ease of victory and sectionals KG should’ve been rated in low to mid 170‘s with a big P, not 180P?
Many Clouds was rated by Timeform at 168 after the Grand National… And looked capable of even better. Ran as well as could be expected at Aintree against Don Poli, but that race didn’t test stamina. Had his problems since and – although always gives his all – hadn’t shown better form than the Grand National performance… until today. Considering the performance of the improving 8 year old racehorse in the Grand National, is it that surprising he’s imo proved capable of better than 168 in a race that tested stamina?
Value Is EverythingNo surprise whatsoever. Mon Mome and Hedgehunter were both good enough to place in Gold Cups after winning the National as relatively young horses. Mon Mome a wide-margin 3rd, ok, but Hedgehunter gave War of Attrition a race.
Poor Many Clouds :( I think running the race of his life cost him his life. He got an RPR of 170 for winning the National, I think today he and Thistlecrack ran close to 178.
I think Thistlecrack’s chasing bubble has been somewhat burst. He did 178 winning the World Hurdle and probably had 5 in hand (183). I don’t think there was anything wrong with him today or that he has any going preference. Simply he is not going to make a better or even as good a chaser as potentially he is a hurdler. This is because, turning to chasing relatively late, he is not fluent enough over fences. Today this lack of fluency meant he kept having to use up energy to recover his position and, having less reserves left in the tank, at trip & ground he was marginally outstayed. He ran a fine race and did stay well but relatively not as well as he can over hurdles where his fluency does not deplete energy. I don’t think he will prove any more effective in a Gold Cup on good ground because they will be going a stride faster making fluency harder, increasing the risk of a fall, and just as much energy will be used up recovering from (probably more) non-fluent leaps due to the speed other horses will be going away from him.
Having said that Thistlecrack could still be competitive in what now looks an open GC. It’s up to the owner and may depend on the ground (per what suits other GC runners) but, seeking a title and with Cue Card & Native River up his sleeve, would Colin Tizzard consider switching back to the Stayers for what could be the clash of the meeting with Unowhatimeanharry?
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