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Hi All – Currently in Dubai on holiday with the wife and we are going to Super Saturday on err… Saturday. I would love to have some Racing Forum tips for this once in a life time event. Thank you.
Given the absence of rain this season, I would imagine, any rain we have had or will have, will, within reason, be very easily absorbed by the ground and will drain away pretty quickly. The water table also needs to be considered.
Can’t say I know much about the Lalor story, or his connections.
Jamie – Earlier in the season, last year, Richard Woollacott, the trainer of Lalor and husband to Kayley, sadly took his own life. His wife, Kayley, despite the obvious challenges has continued the training operation. Lalor is the flag bearer of the yard. Hope that helps.
Yet another example of having to take what the trainers say with a shovel of salt. Just last week on Twitter Elliott was saying this is exactly where Champagne Classic would go. I’m still hoping my Blow by Blow bet pays off here instead.
A key lesson for me this year is not to attach to much weight to trainers words from preview nights when they’re talking about horses owned by active owners and racing managers i.e. Gigginstown, Munir & Souede and McManus
Unfortunately Hein, whilst we have our views, the real question is: who is the decision maker and what will they do?
If the answer to that question is Gosden, then I think he will duck it and send Calyx sprinting, hence the article. Let’s hope that’s not the case.
Based on what we currently know, it would be a really poor show for Gosden not to run Calyx in the 2000 Guineas. If he’s genuinely concerned about the trip, to Hein’s point, then run him in a 7f trial and see how it goes. If he races through the line and finishes his race of well then he has to go for the Guineas. For a trainer who hasn’t won the 2000 Guineas you think he would be more keen. There’s nothing wrong in being double handed in it. Just speak to Aidan O’Brien. If Calyx underperforms in the 7f trial then, for sure, perhaps re-route him to the Commonwealth Cup.
It has to be noted both Calyx’s sire and damn both won at 1m. In fact they both won at 1m on soft ground i.e. the argument about Calyx not lasting the mile looks weak to me.
To jack’s point, what we don’t know is if Calyx retains his ability but you would have to say the thrust of the article suggests Gosden thinks he has.
I have a sneaking suspicion that if Might Bite gets his ground they’re going to let him use his big stride, go from the front and let him bowl along. If so I think he could take them all out of their comfort zone and could destroy the field. Lots of ‘if buts and maybes’ there but I think they might just have got him right in time.
Is it just me or is there a huge amount of contradictory comments being issued by trainers at the moment. I’m trying to work it out: is it simply that their plans are so fluid that they change by the day or is it deliberately misleading?
For example, Henderson states on his Unibet blog that Top Notch will go to the Ryanair. Two days later at the Unibet preview night all or a sudden Top Notch is running in the Stayers Hurdle.
Gordon Elliott, was quoted a week ago when providing an update that Galvin would go to the Ballymore. Now we learn from a preview night he’s heading for the Martin Pipe.
I understand it to some extent with the handicaps but not the level weights races. This is so confusing and frustrating. I wonder whether there’s more value to be had by what’s not being said. What do people make of it?
I was disappointed to see Blow by Blow rated 146 and hence one pound too high for this. Something tells me the handicapper took a dim view of Blow by Blows performances this year and smelt a rat.
Any idea as to whom Jamie Codd will ride?
Quite confused about Henderson’s comments about Champagne Platinum. In the video yesterday on Sporting Life he said Champagne Platinum was his third runner in the Supreme. Then, published only hours later, he gets mentioned for the Ballymore for the first time this season. I placed a bet on him a few weeks back and would be disappointed to see him re-routed to the Ballymore. What the hell happended in the space of a few hours? Is this JP shuffling his deck?
VTC – Elliott states this is where Galvin will probably run, as per video on Sporting Life
I thought Al Dancer was also impressive today. Nothing not to like. How much would you like to be Dai Walters?
A much more traditional preparation adopted by Nicholls with Clan Des Obeaux.
The point I’m trying to make is based on race form an objective punter would have to rate the form shown by Clan Des Obeaux higher than that shown by Presenting Percy. Moreover, Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden have now learnt a lot about his horse under race conditions which has to serve them well come the big day.
I know Clan Des Obeaux didn’t beat any big names today but it was hard not to be impressed with performance. He travelled well, jumped well, and showed a nice turn of foot when asked.
VTC – Be careful about placing a wager on Kruzhlinin. GE stated on Twitter Q&A that only Ucello Conti, when specifically asked about Kruzhlinin and Ucello Conti, will been entered for the Foxhunters.
Jack – When I look at PP’s form I would conclude that he’s not ground dependent. So, if he performs well on all surfaces the only reasons I can see for not running the horse when citing ground as the reason for not running are:
1) He’s fragile, in that running on one surface may impact him more than another. However, we haven’t heard of any setbacks or fragility.
2) Ground is not the real reason and that some other genuine reason has come to light for not running him, and connections are deflecting the questions so as not to reveal whatever it may be to the public.
3) The comments are genuinely misleading and something more underhand is at play from a betting angle.
If their comments are to be believed, and let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that’s the case, then I can only assume PP is a bit fragile hence their caution running him. To your point, perhaps he realistically has only one shot at this, like Coneygree.
Received wisdom, would suggest running a horse 3.5 weeks in advance of Cheltenham over a shorter distance (ie Red Mills Chase) would be more suitable than running over 3m+ with only 2.5 weeks to go. Hence, I can’t see him turning up at the Bobbyjo Chase either.
If that’s the case then, he will likely go straight to the Gold Cup without a run over fences since last year’s RSA. That surely, people can agree on, is far from ideal. Add to that he has yet to be tested outside of novice company (I appreciate he ran in last year’s Red Mills Chase – but that was a very small field and he was receiving weight all round) over fences, his form over fences is difficult to assess.
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good horse. He clearly likes Cheltenham. I think he goes on all surfaces. I would like to see the horse race more only so I can enjoy watching him. If he wins the Gold Cup I wouldn’t be surprised nor disappointed (perhaps a little bit because I would like to see Might Bite rise from the ashes). All I’m suggesting is the support he’s receiving seems disproportionate based on what we’ve seen on the track.
