Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I think of all the Championship races this one is sewn up already by Mite Bite. I don’t think it matters who turns up to be honest whether that be: Yorkhill, Thistlecrack or Bristol De Mai. Mite Bite is a monster and assuming he turns up fit and well I just can’t see anyone beating him. Mite Bite was, other than a disastrous fall at the last – which has to go down as jockey error, awesome at Kempton last year, comprehensive at Sandown and other than his bizarre attempt to have a quick pint before finishing off the RSA pretty damn good at Cheltenham.
I think the main difference between Kempton and Cheltenham is that Cheltenham is a gallopers’ track whereas Kempton requires a bit more pace because of the tight turns which stops the gallopers building up momentum. The extra 2f up the hill at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup makes a big difference and shifts the balance towards a stayer.
Back to the horses…..Of the other horses likely to run I think Native River seems to be the forgotten horse. He finished 3rd last year only 3 lengths off the winner and Tizzard’s yard was in poor form at the time. He apparently jarred himself up last year too. He’s only aged 7 going on 8 and I can see him running well. I can’t see him beating Mite Bite but he has to be a solid each way bet.
What do people make of Bon Papa? He’s debut looked good and he’s always looked like a chaser in the making. A big strong looking horse. Has a high head carriage but is that such a bad thing?
I think you’ll find I acknowledged that he’s better going right handed. Nor did I say he would win a Champion Chase. We simply don’t know at the moment how he would fair around Cheltenham since he’s never raced there. If he arrives at Cheltenham fit and well I see no reason why he wouldn’t be competitive and make a race of it. You know he’ll set off at a pace and that can take some horses out of the comfort zone. I fully expect a fully fit Douvan to win but given the prohibitive odds I think I would take a punt on a horse whom quite simply loves his racing. The no such thing as a sure thing in racing. You never know.
charlie87 – glad to see a fellow Ar Mad fan. I love this horse and still remember vividly his performance in the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown 2 years ago when he demolished the field, being Bristol De Mai by 10 lengths and recording a time only 1.6 seconds off Sprinter Sacres best time round the same course and distance.
When he’s on song and jumping fences with that low margin of tolerance he has there is hardly a better sight. He gets away from his fences so quickly. I guess the only problem is when he clips a fence he clips it hard, as he did in last years Tingle Creek. If he gets a clean round of jumping and has recovered from his last run, after which he scoped dirty, then I think he’ll be hard to beat.
I also think horses that tend to like Sandown also like Cheltenham. They are both galloping tracks and suit horses that build up some momentum. Having missed the festival the last two years with injury it would be great to see him finally make it to the Champion Chase this year. I know Gary Moore has stated Ar Mad prefers going right handed but he has been left handed albeit at Plumpton.
If he gets there fighting fit I don’t think it’s a given that the Champion Chase will be a two horse race. Come on Ar Mad.
I totally agree Ham, it’s a very odd market. I’m staying right where I am with a bet on L’Ami Serge. I’ve never been totally convinced by unowhatimeanharry neither did I buy Harry Fry’s post Stayers Hurdle analysis that the horse ran ‘flat’, that ubiquitous phrase rolled out by a trainer when his fancied runner loses.
I’m not sure what Lil Rockerfeller has done wrong to be + 20-1. That seems a good alternative bet to me. It would be great to see the New One win and whilst my heart would love to see it my head says otherwise. I think he missed his opportunity which was last year.
Perhaps this is the year in which the baton is passed to an up and coming younger horse. Good luck with your bets, particularly L’Ami Serge.
Assuming all of Ricci’s horses stay fit one would have to assume that Min will be in the Ryanair. Douvan in the Champion Chase and Djakadam in the Gold Cup (again). He pretty much confirmed that in an interview with Matt Chapman. That said we all know a single chat with Willie Mullins could change all that.
Assuming Min does run in this then I think he has to be one of the bets of the festival.
Hi Voleur – I haven’t heard anything about Vroum Vroum Mag having run her last race. Where did you see that?
Mitchouka takes on Espoir D’Allen tomorrow at Fairyhouse. I think that could be some race and a real insight into the Triumph. Both really nice horses.
What do people make of Sceau Royal as a betting proposition for this? He wasn’t quite top class over hurdles but he’s adapted well to fences. His second to North Hill Harvey at Cheltenham by a nose, whilst giving the winner 5 Ibs, was not a bad run and North Hill Harvey is 12-1 whereas Sceau Royal is over double that at 25-1. He finished ahead of Brain Power in last year’s Champion Hurdle too and Brain Power is 8-1 for this.
I have to agree that this perceived gap between Faugheen and Buveur D’Air is completely overstated. I can only assume this has something to do with the mystique of being trained by Willie Mullins. They recorded the same times in their Champion Hurdle wins and Buveur is still improving Faugheen is not. Nicky Henderson is an awesome trainer and great at getting them right for the big day.
Frustratingly their odds are now so short that neither offer much as a betting proposition. If I were to make a bet on either it would be Buveur D’Air. I am going to take a punt on Melon in the hope we see some progress from him and perhaps he catches people by surprise.
Just had a quick look at the form line and I see your point MOM. My only concern is why they would continue to race him during the summer which happened both this year and last year. Perhaps they think he wants better ground but the best horses don’t tend to get raced in the summer. But I can’t see that being the reason given he just won by 16 lengths on soft ground. He scheduled to run in the Drinmore next so, assuming he runs,we will find out one way or another what he’s made of. Good luck with the bet MOM.
I just wonder with Simon ‘Good to Soft’ Claisse up to his usual watering tricks whether this will be sufficient to secure Finian Oscar’s participation. I agree he would be better suited to the JLT but Tizzard seems quite keen on the kudos of the Arkle.
Just another thought.. I agree the above comments: this is a weak division. I just wonder whether Mullins won’t rethink about redirecting a horse like Melon to this race. I know he’s said he’s hurdling this season but one can never be sure of where he sends his horses and with a weak Arkle up for grabs who knows.
I like in the Blind Side too I’m just finding it hard to ascertain what he’s beaten so far. I haven’t made up my mind yet.
On what we currently know from those that have raced this season I think one has to look across the sea. From my perspective Cracking Smart looks both a cracking and smart bet. He’s already raced and won over 3m and has won on both good and soft ground and, according to Gordon Elliott’s stable tour, summered well and is described as ‘exciting’. I think we’ve still to see many a horse for this race but as things stand this seems a sound bet at the moment.
I think Blow by Blow might end up here too which would be interesting. I was slightly disappointed with his performance on his hurdling debut but I’ve had him marked as one to watch for a long time.
By the way having done some quick reading I can confirm that MinutestoMidnight is now being trained by Nick Gifford in the UK rather than Jonathan Sweeney.
That’s an interesting thought Gman. It hadn’t occurred to me that Thistlecrack might revert to hurdles on a permanent basis and I can see the logic. His jumping was edge of the seat stuff last season often taking off too early and just making it to the other side. As a backer it would have driven me bonkers.
If he did and he retains that same engine, which I can’t see why he wouldn’t, then that would really shake up the market. I’m no veterinary expert but my understanding is tendon injuries are much more difficult to come back from unaffected so I think I would need to see some evidence of his recovery before wading in but if he does revert to hurdles then 14-1 would be a massive price.
