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Thanks VTC. One more stupid question if I may. So there is no incentive for selecting a horse with longer odds other than if a horse with long odds wins, or places, other participants are less likely to have selected it?
Excuse me for asking a stupid question but I am new to this competition. On what basis do you calculate and hence decide who wins? I.e. what is the incentive for going for a win bet and is there a maximum stake budget across all the races?
People might like to check out ‘Didtheyleaveyoutto’ for this. His performance at Ascot looked pretty solid beating a number of fancied runners.
What did people think of Real Steel the other day? It was a most odd performance. First of all he seemed to struggle with the pace but then he continued to battle on and might have gone onto won although Sharjah was looking the stronger finisher. I’m on him at 16-1 but not sure what to think now. Mullins didn’t seem overly concerned by the performance saying it was his ‘inexperience that caught him out’ whatever that means.
As for the fall at the last no one seems to have mentioned it but it looked like the horses were being blinded by the sun going over the last hurdle. Both he and Sharjah fell in a very similar steep manner having jumped the Hurdle very cautiously. Sadly the same seemed to happen to Nichols Canyon the following day and then the last hurdle was omitted for the rest of the races. What a shame.
Killultagh Vic won over hurdles today and whilst he looked ring-rusty over the obstacles to win first time out, having been out such a long time, is impressive nonetheless. I just wonder whether Mullins might aim him here with him. He’s currently price up at around 14-1.
I agree about Thistlecrack MOM. He seems to be improving with each run as he regains his fitness. That said it sounded like De Boinville thought Might Bite still had some untapped reserves. I managed to get 10-1 on Might Bite some months back so I’m sticking with him but I would see the main dangers as Thistlecrack, Sizing John and Native River.
I’m still hoping, as I’m sure many of you are, that Faugheen makes it to Cheltenham. I guess the good news so far is that nothing to do with joints or tendons etc. has come to light. If Faugheen was simply harbouring a cold then there is every chance he will be back. The fact that he, according to Townend, raced sluggish throughout is probably a good sign in many respects.
For those wanting to bet on Faugheen this might even prove to be the opportunity to get a decent price on him albeit reflecting the increased likelihood that he won’t return.
Personally, I’m on Melon and am relatively pleased with the 12-1 I got some weeks back. I think there should be some improvement to come but to be honest there will need to be considerable improvement if he is to beat BD. That said we’ve got some water to pass under the bridge before Cheltenham and they’ve all got to make it there in one piece.
With regards to Yorkhill his jumping is so poor that I think they have no choice but to return him to hurdles. From what I’m seeing he is jumping so far to his left that I don’t think the just coming down in distance is the answer. He has to come back over hurdles. Let’s not forget Mullins does already have Melon and possibly Limini for the Champion Hurdle so he might decide to send Yorkhill for the Stayers Hurdle instead given the stamina in his pedigree. My suspicion is he would stay 3m on better ground. I appreciate the Stayers Hurdle doesn’t have the kudos of the Champion Hurdle but given Mullins just lost Nichols Canyon he may just reassign Yorkhill to the Stayers.
A good Supreme trial coming up at Ascot on Friday which seems, at this stage, very competitive. I liked the look of ‘The Clock is Ticking’and it’s nice to see a smaller trainer have a good horse on his hands. The winner of this, should a number of these show up, is going to be a good horse.
True Self was looking good today before the ground got the better of her. Runs like that often offer up betting opportunities. She looks like a good ground horse to me.
Lol. Thanks MarkTT. You made me panic for a moment -I re-read my post and was somewhat confused about what it was that I had written that could be considered offensive. I thought for a moment you might be one of Willie Mullins inside team and found my quip about Mullins unfair.
If people haven’t yet see Stormy Ireland’s performance yesterday at Fairyhouse where he won by 58 lengths it is well worth watching. I don’t think I’ve seen anything like that in a long time. This race is warming up nicely. That might give Apples Shakira something to think about.
I know we didn’t see him last season but it was all quite quiet from Elliot with respect to Blow by Blow. Do you know what injury he had and how bad it was?
Blow by Blow is clearly an out-an-out stayer which might be want you want for this. I’m not convinced the ground was ideal for him today but either way, I agree, he made very hard work of it. That said I just wonder whether a race run at a true championship pace at Cheltenham over three miles up the hill might be just what he needs.
I tend to agree plus I think Mullins, the master at picking winnable races for his horses, might find avoiding Samcro – who is likely aimed at this – all too tempting.
What did people making of Poli Roi’s performance? From having been out the back he went charging quickly to the lead two out and then just emptied almost as quickly. Very odd. Nice turn of foot but a baffling finish. Perhaps the ground was too heavy for him too.
Countister was much improved today. I think Henderson now has the top two horses in the market with Dame De Companie and Countister. The fact that Countister is owned by McManus plus Apple Shakira’s performance today probably means Apples Shakira will go for the triumph leaving some value in the market here.
I love it Jasolong. Don’t hold back now will you. You know what? I think you might well be right. Here’s hoping.
I assume this has now turned into a match race between Finians Oscar and Monalee? Tizzard seems to be talking about three miles for Finians Oscar and as a prior year Alber Bartlett runner up this has to be Monalee’s target too.
Bamako Moriviere is interesting but I can’t make my mind up on him at the moment. His performances look solid but yet I’m not excited by him.
Is there anything else in Ireland that people fancy?
