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Yorkhill would be interesting in the Champion Chase as he’s a freewheeling sort. Even more interesting if Altior tries to win the race on his seasonal debut by not having a prep run.
Agree
Faugheen is/was a great.
The fact we may never see Faugheen on a racecourse again is something sadly overlooked by many. As you rightly say, one of the greats.
That’s me who just followed your twitter by the way.
Yorkhill
I think he will be in the Ryanair. However, I’d love to see him go to the Champion Chase. Might make Altior odds against on the day which would be brilliant.
I’m still hoping, as I’m sure many of you are, that Faugheen makes it to Cheltenham. I guess the good news so far is that nothing to do with joints or tendons etc. has come to light. If Faugheen was simply harbouring a cold then there is every chance he will be back. The fact that he, according to Townend, raced sluggish throughout is probably a good sign in many respects.
For those wanting to bet on Faugheen this might even prove to be the opportunity to get a decent price on him albeit reflecting the increased likelihood that he won’t return.
Personally, I’m on Melon and am relatively pleased with the 12-1 I got some weeks back. I think there should be some improvement to come but to be honest there will need to be considerable improvement if he is to beat BD. That said we’ve got some water to pass under the bridge before Cheltenham and they’ve all got to make it there in one piece.
With regards to Yorkhill his jumping is so poor that I think they have no choice but to return him to hurdles. From what I’m seeing he is jumping so far to his left that I don’t think the just coming down in distance is the answer. He has to come back over hurdles. Let’s not forget Mullins does already have Melon and possibly Limini for the Champion Hurdle so he might decide to send Yorkhill for the Stayers Hurdle instead given the stamina in his pedigree. My suspicion is he would stay 3m on better ground. I appreciate the Stayers Hurdle doesn’t have the kudos of the Champion Hurdle but given Mullins just lost Nichols Canyon he may just reassign Yorkhill to the Stayers.
OMG, just read some stuff for the first time.
You lot are so sanctimonious.
This forum is about two things, horse racing and betting on horse racing.
Like it or not, one thing that is massively important and that we all need to take in to account betting ante-post is the likelihood of getting a run for our money. eg If the only bets a punter has for the Cheltenham Festival are a couple ante-post, both at 3/1… If only one turns up and is only available @ 7/4 on the day, many punters would believe they got a good bet @ “3/1”. Whilst the actual price achieved on the one that runs is effectively only Evens, much shorter than the day of race punter who’s taken 7/4.Should people see my original post and then “told you so” comment as wishing ill on Faugheen? No, as a racing fan I’d rather see a great horse run again and the two taking each other on would make it a better race. This was my only comment on the Ryanair Hurdle thread after the race:
Fingers crossed he can come back, but it seems probable will be retired now.
No mention of my bet on BVD for the Champion Hurdle.
But when calculating which horse is value you’ve got to consider how likely each runner is to get there. Otherwise you’re just going to lose long term… And backing non-runner losers is not just “luck” as some people make out. People can say IF Faugheen gets there he’ll beat BVD, but it’s not as simple as that when assessing ante-post value. Sounder horses are less likely to get injuries/miss races. Fact is Faugheen’s injury that kept him off the course for so long means he was then far more likely to miss Cheltenham than BVD and that had to be taken in to account in the price a punter is willing to take. Faugheen imo has the best form, but imo BVD should’ve been far shorter. Of course BVD could still be injured and miss the race, but his sound history means it’s less likely… And Faugheen could still come back and win. But it’s not about who’ll win, it’s about getting value to win
Should people see my comment of “I told you so” as “smugness”, no. Should they see it as criticism if they backed Faugheen at the price he was at the time of my original post (or afterwards)? Yes – We all need to learn from our mistakes and backers of Faugheen imo made a big mistake in taking a short price. Lot of ante-post punters still haven’t learnt, soundness matters! Of course sometimes a price makes it worth the risk of backing what might be considered an unsound horse, but this wasn’t (before the event) imo one of them.
Value Is EverythingIf I were Willie Mullins I’d keep to the plan of running Yorkhill in the Gold Cup – it’s a race he’s never won unlike the Champion Hurdle which he’s farmed and Yorkhill represents his best chance at present. If Faugheen can’t make it and with Melon, Cilaos Emery and Limini likely not good enough to win even a below-par renewal I would run Un De Sceaux in the Champion Hurdle. Who remembers Ryanair winners? He’s won that once all ready and with a lack of clear cut potential front-runners and BD’s tendency to come from behind I don’t see a reason not to have a crack considering UDS top-level hurdles form.
I bet you’re all glad I have nothing to do with the Mullins stable!
The fact we may never see Faugheen on a racecourse again is something sadly overlooked by many.
You think so?
I’ve got a much better opinion of racing enthusiasts on TRF.Value Is EverythingNot a bad shout, Joe.
Looked a very promising horse before the start of the season. Trainer has been in poor form for the most part, even back when Defi ran on reappearance. Only now seemingly getting over whatever was wrong with the yard… And given didn’t settle over a longer trip – won’t be going for the Stayers Hurdle. Not as bad a performance as beaten at odds-on suggests considering stable form, too free at a longer trip and giving weight to a Grade 1 French Champion Hurdle winner and Cheltenham Festival placed horse. Triumph win means goes well at Cheltenham/at the Festival too.At this moment the two that make most appeal are Defi @ 20/1 (25/1 on betfair) and Melon @ 11/1. But with 5/1 BVD I’ll wait.
Value Is EverythingI had a little e/w on him earlier now the WH offer is in place. Hobbs said he scoped badly, which would ring true with the stables form and if he goes to the fez surely it’s this race or nothing.
Can’t see him beating Buveur D’air but he’s a good e/w shout at the price.
I agree Joe, at 20-1 Defi is definitely worth some each way value. I can’t for a minute imagine him beating Buveur D’Air but as an each proposition absolutely. I missed the decent odds on Buveur D’Air hence I’ve gone for Melon on a value basis. I was considering a small wager on a Defi before his first run of the season when he was 8-1 so the fact he’s now 20-1 with the the news he scoped badly is very tempting indeed. That’s said if I had Buveur at 5-1 I would be more than happy. Good luck.
Always a race where I like to have a “book”, but as I said in the opening post, it had been a stale market since last March, and it ain’t changed much since. It’s been stop start for me, and I never really got going with it at all this season. Only got a handful in there, and for a very small amount as well.
Still think there’s the odd attractive price there……
Wicklow Brave 33’s
Arctic Fire 40’s
Call Me Lord 50’s
John Constable 66’sThey all look tempting, and took a bit of risk with Call Me Lord today, and added him at odds up to 640’s on the exchange for a bit of interest, and now just want to see him run well in The Betfair, though being a stablemate of BVD, I realise it’s a big ask, and he’ll also have a fair hike to contend with now in that race.
I think he’s great value Joe, I put him in as my star horse in my Ten To Follow.
I was at Cheltenham and saw him win the Triumph, I thought he looked like a champion
in the making. I took him at 8/1, which looks pretty skinny now, but I think he
just wasn’t right in the Coral Hurdle. I’ve topped up with the 20s, although I’m
not kidding myself that Buveur D’Air doesn’t look anything other than top class.I’ve also chanced a bit of e/w on Ch’tibello. Not sure if he’ll make it there this
year, he nearly did last year but for puss in his hoof on the day of the race, I was
pig sick. If you can fancy MTOY at as low as 12s, then Ch’tibello shouldn’t be 50s.
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