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It’ll be interesting to hear from those who have backed BD at a nice price (anything above 5/2) if they’ve actually had by their standard a proper bet on him or not. I remember backing Dodging Bullets ante-post at 25/1 for the Champion Chase the season he won it but had only about a quarter the size of bet I usually make on him so I couldn’t really claim I was a genius when in reality I might as well of held on and backed him on the day. I suppose it’s basically a case of how brave you are but when about a third of my ante-post bets never actually run I can’t bring myself to get well involved months in advance.
When BD was 5/1 back in November I advised this bet in my Daily Lays And Plays Thread, Charles.
Champion Hurdle:
67 points @ 5/1 (WH) Buveur D’Air (min 4/1)Obviously a lot has changed, with a lot of form since; but to explain how I came to the stake, how much value I believed was in the bet and why 4/1 was then the minimum price to take at that point:
If I were a bookie offering prices at that point I would’ve only gone 11/4 (My idea of its fair price 100/30 plus a mark up).
With my normal staking plan:
My idea of his fair chance then 100/30 23%
Minus the available price’s percentage 5/1 = 16.7%
X 7
Plus my idea of his fair chance 23%ie
23 – 16.7 = 6.3
6.3 X 7 = 44.1
44.1 + 23 = 67.1
Stake 67 points @ 5/1
With a margin for error of two prices above my idea of its fair price 100/30 + two prices = my minimum price to take 4/1.Before November, put the bet up in another thread, “The Ante-post Ginger” a week after last year’s renewal, with this write up:
2018 Champion Hurdle:
Buveur D’Air (5/1) beat My Tent Or Yours (50/1) by exactly the same distance as Annie Power, still improving and up to now a sound racehorse. Surely has much better than a 17% chance of winning in 2018. If I were a bookie wouldn’t want to lay Buveur D’ir at any more than 3’s. Case of the best value being the favourite. 50/1 My Tent or Yours might look a good each way bet as he’s been placed three times in the Champion and once in Supreme; but you’re throwing away the win part of such a bet (never wins anything, let alone a Champion (suspect temperament)) and in 2018 will be at an age where vast majority of hurdlers are on the downgrade…
Mega Fortune and Bapaume aren’t listed on oddschecker, not in the same league as the Chamion Hurdle placed horses. So although Defi Du Sieul (8/1) won the Triumph with quite a bit in hand and should progress – has a lot to find to reach Champion Hurdle class. From the same ownership as the Champion Hurdle winner and is favourite in some lists for the Arkle.
Of the Mullins horses: Who knows Faugheen (10/1) will be capable of after so much time off. At his very best he is the very best. However, missed two Champion Hurdles and must be odds on misses 2018 renewal. I gather Annie Power (16/1) might reach the racecourse at Punchestown, but will need to be at least as good as her 2016 Champion performance to even match last week’s Buveur. Majority don’t come back as good as they were after a long term injury. Although in her favour, connections now have more Mares Hurdle alternatives, so that isn’t as big a worry. Min‘s (16/1) injury is apparently not so bad, but will he come back to hurdles? One of those Mullins horses with at least four possible targets; Yorkhill (33/1) is another. If he didn’t run in this year’s Champion Hurdle, must be quite a big doubt over 2018. Prefer the Supreme 2nd to the winner. Melon (16/1) is lightly raced which suggests there’s plenty more to come if keeping sound. One of the favourites for the Arkle and that’s probably why he’s (on the face of it) at a tempting 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle.
Labaik (16/1) comes from the right yard, won the Supreme well but will temperament hold another year? No more than 50/50 I’d say.
Petit Mouchoir (16/1) is of a good standard, but has probably reached his peak.
If Yanworth (16/1) keeps over hurdles looks more of a stayer now.
I was with Brain Power (20/1) last week, but disappointed for a second time at Cheltenham. Runs in cheek pieces and am not fully convinced temperament is up to it.
Neon Wolf is one I thought about backing. Without being a bit too free early, letting the leader go and then making an unchracteristic mistake at the last… imo Would’ve won the Neptune with something to spare. Return to 2m could easily see a lot more improvement. But is Arkle favourite and (like Melon) am not going to make the same mistake in this race as I did last year (8/1 Altior).67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Buveur D’Air (minimum 4/1)
So it was a fair sized bet.
Is that a smug post? Well, I wouldn’t have bothered had Charles not asked; but it was a good excuse.
Value Is EverythingWhy?
I wasn’t a fan of Defi last season, mainly because I thought his jumping sloppy and I very much doubted it would hold up at Cheltenham. But he jumped better there than he had all season and that gave me pause for thought.
I’ve been burned in the past, like many, by exciting juveniles proving unable to cut it in open company the following season. But his profile differs enough to offer more hope than I might usually have. For a start he’s NH bred, unlike many fast ex-flat youngsters. And, for a French horse at 5, hasn’t had much racing. Also, and perhaps most importantly, when the button was pressed last season, he just went about his business, never having to get involved in a battle. There are downsides to that, but I don’t think he’ll be found wanting in a tight finish.
His generally workmanlike way of going about things and the bad rep of Triumph winners have helped in the overreaction to his defeat, I think. A push out to 12s would have been appropriate; 20/1 is too much. Had be been beaten a neck, I’d be less enthusiastic about him but he patently did not run his race at Ascot.
His trainer’s words are another positive for me. I ignore 99% of what any connection says, but Hobbs is not a man for bigging up his horses. I’ve been struck by how much excitement he’s shown over Defi Du Seuil.
On the downside, I’d like to have seen a better speed figure than he’s managed so far and I’d like to see more polished jumping when he’s back on song. But’s he’s a triple grade one winner with scope and with a top trainer. Buveur D’Air will be very hard to beat but I’m pretty sure that as an EW prospect, Defi Du Seuil is considerably over priced. I’m normally loath to back each way antepost as it’s hard enough getting them there. But Defi Du Seuil is reported back on song and I cannot see him turning up anywhere else at Cheltenham than the Champion Hurdle.
Still hoping Yorkhill will revert to Hurdles and line up in the CH.
Perhaps Mullins will wait and see how Faugheen gets on in the Irish CH, before totally making his mind up.
I did Buveur D’air at 4/1, mainly because of a lack of opposition in my eyes.
I backed him when he was third to Altior at Cheltenham and at Aintree but after he reverted to hurdling I didn’t think he was value for the Champion Hurdle, given what he had beaten.
After the Champion Hurdle I was a big convert to the idea he could be the best hurdler in the business for the next couple of seasons. Having concerns about Faugheen coming back to his best sealed the deal.
I have been burnt too often at Cheltenham ante-post, so I stick pretty much to clear targets in the biggest races. I’ve given up on the handicap races, it’s just too tough.
I do not fear Yorkhill. You can argue he could be this, that or the other but my feeling has always been that, if he has the speed and talent for a Champion Hurdle, then why hasn’t he been targeted at that contest long before now? It’s hard to think that a horse trying a 3 Mile chase last time came into the season with the Champion Hurdle as the plan.
Defi Du Seuil is a decent pick. His Cheltenham record is excellent and he clearly ran miles short of form last time out. You know that he will slash in price if he wins his next start in good style and it’s a race lacking serious contenders due to age, already failed, dubious health factors amongst the field. I’d say 20/1 each-way is easily the best value of the runners behind the favourite, considering that you are having to forgive one bad run only, for the moment at least.
In the end I expect Buveur D’air to pick them off in the closing stages to win with some authority come Champion Hurdle day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The fact we may never see Faugheen on a racecourse again is something sadly overlooked by many.
You think so?
I’ve got a much better opinion of racing enthusiasts on TRF.In fairness, that post wasn’t aimed at here but more on racing fans as a whole – particularly twitter.
The number of tweets after that race that we’re just about peoples bets was incredible.
As someone who backed Defi at 8/1 at the start of the season, I have been unsure what to make of his price.
On one hand, I think 20/1 is too much of a drift. But on the other hand, that run last time was terrible. Too bad to be true probably. But there was no reason for the run that bad.
However, with Faugheen unlikely, he may be my each way angle this time next month if he’s still 20/1. Saying that, I may change my mind and back him for Cheltenham before his next run.
I don’t rate the strength in depth this year, MTOY has come second at the festival in each of his 4 attempts, only finishing outside the top three in one of his 24 starts, 14/1 EW seems tasty to me? I’m off to look down the back of the sofa.
Glad I didn’t go back in again on Defi each way for March
No idea what’s happened with him
Glad I didn’t go back in again on Defi each way for March
No idea what’s happened with him.
Hobbs is yet to get rid of a powerful virus in the yard; probably similar to what went through the McCain yard a couple of years ago. Very very few Hobbs horses have run well in the last four or five months, with most running poorly. Therefore, not surprised Defi has taken after most Hobbs horses, MOM. Time’s running out for a reversal of fortune before Cheltenham, but could do so at some point in the future.
Value Is EverythingUnlikely I know, but in case anyone was considering The New One, he’s officially been scratched for this (still in The Stayers)
Here’s a rubbish question – what happens if you back a horse in the ‘without buveur d’air’ market and ‘your horse’ actually wins ?
exactly the same if it was second to Buveur D’air Muggins – payout as a win at price taken
I posted this after his reappearance this season but DDS looked very small alongside some of his peers.
No doubt the health of the yard’s horses has been an issue but he really does lack scope for improvement.
It looks like Alan King is keen on an entry for Elgin in this. He looks a good solid sort
to have a bash here, although I can’t see him (or anything else for that matter) troubling
Buveur D’Air if he is fit and doesn’t have problems in running. The market has him at 25s,
and that’s probably about right. He ran well when he won the Greatwood H’cap at Cheltenham
in November, so c/d not a problem. He still needs to be supplemented, but with most now
NRNB, it doesn’t really matter if he doesn’t turn up.I’ve still got an ante post voucher running at 50s and 40s (NRNB) for Ch’tibello. I’m not that
bothered that he was runner up to Elgin yesterday, I think the pace of the Champion Hurdle, and
the final furlong, will suit him better. He looked tapped for toe when Elgin went for home, but
then kept on well at the finish. I know he seems to be the perpetual bridesmaid of late, but I’d
happily settle for that again come the big day
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