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Fresh from my blog:
After a solid victory in yesterday’s Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, it looks like Elgin’s owners. Elite Racing, will pay the £20,000 fee to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle. The 6-y-o gelding was already having a good season before lining up to try to give weight to the field yesterday. And, as is often the case with good horses, particularly those who are improving, it’s not so much what you do, it’s the way that you do it.
Cliffs of Dover had set off as though the devil were after him and the others were forced to ignore him, rather than necessarily choosing to, so quickly did he go clear. They caught him approaching the turn in and as they straightened for home we saw the first clue. Elgin was not only travelling better than the rest, but he was moving with power and purpose. Taking it up two out he steadily forged clear, never looking like being caught.
Elgin is well made and looks to be getting stronger with racing. He shows an appetite and gameness that is undiluted by quirks and – as he showed in the Greatwood at Cheltenham – will do battle all the way to the line. That course win will serve him well (he was 7th in The Supreme in his only other Cheltenham run).
Alan King, his trainer, says the horse has flourished in the past five weeks and while it’s always best to treat the comments of close connections with care (they are all optimists), King is fairly level headed and, more importantly, we saw evidence yesterday of that improvement. His rating should hit 160 now and that entitles him to run in the big one, even more so because he’s on an upward curve and might go there five or six pounds better than he is now. The last 4 winners of the Champion Hurdle lined up off these ratings: 157: 162: 169: 165.
That 157 rating for Buveur D’Air has now risen to 169, but we have the immense benefit of being able to bet without the favourite. Not only that but we can bet each way without Buveur D’Air, and take the 16/1 available with Betfair (sportsbook) and Paddy Power. The latter also have High St shops if you do not bet online. But you shouldn’t hang about as this price is twice what it should be in my view, with the added bonus of money back if Elgin doesn’t line up. It won’t last 48 hours.
Other than Buveur D’Air, it’ll be a sub-quality Champion Hurdle unless Faugheen bounces right back. For example, Ch’Tibello, who was comprehensively beaten by Elgin yesterday, is just 8/1 in this without the fav market (quite how they work that out I don’t know; Elgin gave him 4lbs and beat him comfortably).
I strongly recommend that you back Elgin each way, NRNB at 16/1 in the market without Buveur D’Air at 16/1
A good case steeplechasing. 16s gobbled up. Hope you got some. I missed. A more sensible market now at 8s with chitibello pushed out
Nice write up SC…..good luck with Elgin.
No surprise if something else appears out of the woodwork,or running plans change between now and raceday.
Am I the only one who thinks Buveur D’air is way too short this far out?Looking through his form,is he ground dependant?,the manner of his victory last year was very impressive,yet the 5/1 sp suggests that was a little unexpected,the race was run below standard time,forget the usual garbage from claisse,looked to be decent ground,the supreme being run couple seconds slower.
Less than impressive this season on softer ground,the question remains,if there is any proper soft in the first day going,does this horse represent value at such short odds?Yanworth was 2/1 jolly last year,in the same ownership.
In 2014 we had Jezki at 9/1 turn over the much better touted My Tent 3/1,both in the same ownership as above,it was fantastic to hear afterwards that Jessie was staying at Hendos throughout the week,how they must have lamented the fact that the lesser fancied beast won.
I would not touch this race until raceday.Should the ground be decent,the evidence points to Buveur,any soft and this horse is very beatable on what we have seen.
Fascinating race,when Buveur was hammered in the supreme the market spoke a thousand words,I will be very interested to see how the market reacts in the few minutes before the off.
Just A Thought.
Think you’re getting too caught up in the same ownership thing – they aren’t at the same yard so would be almost impossible for their retrospective trainers to know how good they are compared to each other.
No questioning the class of Buveur D’Air but the one thing that might go against him is lack of battle practice. Over hurdles, he has never been in a proper tussle close home. And it’s a long time since he’s even had to put his head down at any point in a race.
@Flyers Nap
Cant agree with you Flyers. To the best of my knowledge, Buveur dair wants it soft. All the interviews/reports that i have seen suggest the same. Buveur dair is the absolute banker of the meeting even with faugheen turning up. The race isn’t a betting proposition for me,i’ll be listening to the band and having a guinness in the Best Mate tent whilst its on.
@Jaymo74…….That was also my understanding,pretty sure they gave that as the reason behind his supreme defeat,not that convinced by that argument.
On decent ground,he trailed home third behind Altior/Min……..It would not surprise me if Min was re-routed here,there does appear little opposition on paper,Faugheen remains the possible fly in the ointment,unlikely to run,but still entered,as is mullins way.In my limited experience the word “banker” and “cheltenham”,do not belong in the same sentence,Douvan 2/9 fav being a stark reminder from last year,every man and his dogs banker.
Buveur D’Air is the likeliest winner,no doubt,but at that sort of price you want everything in your favour,there is enough there for me to question it,at this stage.
More than happy to play in the without market if it is good ground,on soft I think he is vulnerable,he may just outclass this lot,I have nothing against the horse,at this level betting is irrelevant.
If your with him,best of luck.
@flyers,
Small investment on Melon on the exchanges @20s ages ago. Thought he might develope into a real contender when faced with better opposition. It seems im wrong on that front. You can get 20s in the local high street so i’ve not even got a good price. All but resigned to doing my dough on this one. Nothings a certanty,but if it was my last fiver in my pocket,it would have to be on Buveir. All the best with your bets Flyers
Decent article here Jaymo on some hendo plans,bha website if that link does not work.
Lots can happen between now and the day,just hope they all get there.
Very best of luck with yours too…..best week of the NH year.
According to Henderson, Charli Parcs could be lining up in this….surely based on his current rating he has absolutely no chance, yet would surely be of huge interest if running in the County handicap on good ground? Have taken the 20’s NRNB for the county in the hope this is just the usual pre cheltenham spin.
Melon’s form this year has been disappointing. I thought he had a lot of potential as to my eyes he was a lanky unfinished looking sort last season. He still doesn’t look to have really filled out and strengthened and didn’t really take the eye going down to the start the last couple of times (as opposed to Supasundae who looks like a bull in comparison- I thought he looked nearly too well furnished and was surprised he won).
Perhaps he just doesn’t thrive well in the winter weather, or doesn’t like the ground, or needs an extra summer’s worth of growth
….or maybe he is just not that good. Last year’s Supreme form is tough to assess due to Labaik’s intransigence and then injury; and River Wylde is not a solid yardstick.
I’d be interested to know what the rest of you think of Melon- from what you’ve seen so far do you reckon he will be better in time (+/- better ground +/-over fences) or is he just a bit of a lemon?Patrick spoke him up before leopardstown like he was an absolute certainty to finish infront of defi du seuil and that he was a better horse (didnt say hed win the race) but he didnt think he would be far away
I think id give him one more chance, otherwise, lemon.
I thought he ran well in behind The New One and My Tent Or Yours despite pulling very hard early on. Think he will appreciate the strong gallop in The Champion Hurdle but he’d need to be improving on his Cheltenham run to be giving Buveur Dair something to think about. His last run wasn’t great though so it’s hard to know.
Right enough I had forgotten how hard he pulled in that race. I have him in my ATR stable stars comp stable; might leave him in there till after the Festival anyway.
Pingshou has a splint and won’t be running at Cheltenham according to Colin Tizzard at his pre-Cheltenham open day.
As I said earlier, I found the market a bit stale for it this year, and just a few quid here and there. I had a few quid here and there on outsiders, but nothing much doing, and had more on Samcro than the rest of them put together.
Added John Constable for a bit of interest. Improved leaps and bounds over the last year, and though comfortably held by BVD, hoping for a run for my money, in a race that never really got going for me this year. Charli will surely go handicap route, but wouldn’t complain if he trapped here.
Charli Parcs 400’s to 740’s
John Constable 80’s
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