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Going to put up a few ante-post bets with my usual staking plan:
Value Is Everything2018 Champion Hurdle:
Buveur D’Air (5/1) beat My Tent Or Yours (50/1) by exactly the same distance as Annie Power, still improving and up to now a sound racehorse. Surely has much better than a 17% chance of winning in 2018. If I were a bookie wouldn’t want to lay Buveur D’ir at any more than 3’s. Case of the best value being the favourite. 50/1 My Tent or Yours might look a good each way bet as he’s been placed three times in the Champion and once in Supreme; but you’re throwing away the win part of such a bet (never wins anything, let alone a Champion (suspect temperament)) and in 2018 will be at an age where vast majority of hurdlers are on the downgrade…
Mega Fortune and Bapaume aren’t listed on oddschecker, not in the same league as the Chamion Hurdle placed horses. So although Defi Du Sieul (8/1) won the Triumph with quite a bit in hand and should progress – has a lot to find to reach Champion Hurdle class. From the same ownership as the Champion Hurdle winner and is favourite in some lists for the Arkle.
Of the Mullins horses: Who knows Faugheen (10/1) will be capable of after so much time off. At his very best he is the very best. However, missed two Champion Hurdles and must be odds on misses 2018 renewal. I gather Annie Power (16/1) might reach the racecourse at Punchestown, but will need to be at least as good as her 2016 Champion performance to even match last week’s Buveur. Majority don’t come back as good as they were after a long term injury. Although in her favour, connections now have more Mares Hurdle alternatives, so that isn’t as big a worry. Min‘s (16/1) injury is apparently not so bad, but will he come back to hurdles? One of those Mullins horses with at least four possible targets; Yorkhill (33/1) is another. If he didn’t run in this year’s Champion Hurdle, must be quite a big doubt over 2018. Prefer the Supreme 2nd to the winner. Melon (16/1) is lightly raced which suggests there’s plenty more to come if keeping sound. One of the favourites for the Arkle and that’s probably why he’s (on the face of it) at a tempting 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle.
Labaik (16/1) comes from the right yard, won the Supreme well but will temperament hold another year? No more than 50/50 I’d say.
Petit Mouchoir (16/1) is of a good standard, but has probably reached his peak.
If Yanworth (16/1) keeps over hurdles looks more of a stayer now.
I was with Brain Power (20/1) last week, but disappointed for a second time at Cheltenham. Runs in cheek pieces and am not fully convinced temperament is up to it.
Neon Wolf is one I thought about backing. Without being a bit too free early, letting the leader go and then making an unchracteristic mistake at the last… imo Would’ve won the Neptune with something to spare. Return to 2m could easily see a lot more improvement. But is Arkle favourite and (like Melon) am not going to make the same mistake in this race as I did last year (8/1 Altior).67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Buveur D’Air (minimum 4/1)
Value Is Everything2018 RSA Chase:
Amazed they chose the Neptune for Willoughby Court, earlier races shouted stamina. Although had a bit of an advantage in an uncontested lead and Neon Wolf is imo actually the better hurdler… Willoughby Court is a fine jumper of hurdles and more a stayer than the Harry Fry horse. No doubt now WC is equally effective on a bog or good ground. Hopefully connections don’t go for the JLT, but I’m pinning my hopes he’ll prove suited by 3m early next season anyway.29 points @ 16/1 (PP) Willoughby Court (minimum 12/1)
Stakes still to run: 98 points.
Value Is EverythingStayers Hurdle:
30 points @ 25/1 (PP) Lil Rockafeller (min 14/1)
40 points @ 12/1 (B365) Unowhatimeanharry (min 8/1)
30 points @ 8/1 (B365) Nichols Canyon (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingStayers Hurdle:
30 points @ 25/1 (PP) Lil Rockafeller (min 14/1)
40 points @ 12/1 (B365) Unowhatimeanharry (min 8/1)
30 points @ 8/1 (B365) Nichols Canyon (min 15/2)Can not believe the prices of this season’s Stayers 1-2-3 for 2018.
Nichols Canyon is 8/1 with Bet365 yet as low as 4/1 with Bet Victor.
Unowhatimeanharry is 12/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power yet as low as 6/1 with William Hill.
Lil Rockerfeller beat UNWIMH and might have beaten Nicholls Canyon had he kept straight/got the rail – in a truly run (no fluke) race… And yet is at a massive price for 2008.Of their rivals: Yanworth (14/1) is a possible, I’d have thought just as likely to go chasing. Joint favourite for the JLT. Didn’t perform in the Champion which might be due to being more of a stayer, although may be takes some knowing (first time for Mark Walsh). I wonder if there’s some Temperament – By squiggle horse Norse Dancer. Good strike rate but never impressive, struggles to beat anything by very far. For the second time in as many years no Alan King fancied horse ran well at the Festival.
Penhill (14/1) could prove flattered, better suited by the unusual test of speed than many in Albert Bartlett. Often appeared to have his own ideas about the game.
Apple’s Jade (14/1) is a favourite of mine for obvious reasons. May well try 3m in open company and I wouldn’t be surprised if improving/making the grade. However, right now you’d think is more likely to take the Mares route again in 2018.
Sutton Place (16/1) is the forgotten Gordon Elliott horse who missed Cheltenham this term. What distnce and/or dicipline he’ll go for next year is anyone’s guess.
Stable companions Willoughby Court (20/1) and Barters Hill (20/1) may go chasing and latter needs to return from injury.
Suspect The New One (20/1) will choose this in 2018, but he’ll be a veteran. Stablemate Wholestone‘s (20/1) form level seems established.I think many under-estimated thursday’s Stayers Hurdle form. It isn’t Thistlecrack or Big Buck’s, but still pretty good.
Above is equal to taking 7/2 one of the three will win.Stakes still to run: 198
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Gold Cup:
60 points @ 6/1 (Unibet/32 Red/888) Thistlecrack (minimum 5/1)
24 points @ 14/1 (betfair) Native River (min 12/1)(£16 available @ 14.5/1, £50 available @ 14/1)
8 points @ 12/1 (PP) Might Bite (min 11/1)
11 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Sizing John (min 8/1)(£56 available @ 8.4/1)
103 stakedStakes still to run: 301
Value Is EverythingThanks Darren, if doing half as well as you ante-post I’ll be doing very well.
Value Is EverythingThat 25’s for Lil Rockafeller is ridiculous, and good to see someone else mentioning Sutton Place.
Queen Mother Champion Chase:
103 points @ 2/1 (Tote/Boyle) Altior (min 13/8)Stakes still to run: 404
Value Is EverythingThat 25’s for Lil Rockafeller is ridiculous, and good to see someone else mentioning Sutton Place.
Yes VTC,
Can’t believe how Lil Rockerfeller always seems to slip under the radar.
Only beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Unowhatimeanharry when runner-up in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (level weights) with subsequent Ultima Chase (under top weight) winner Un Temps Pour Tout 14 lengths back in 3rd.And before that, in the Coral Hurdle… Gave 4 lbs to Yanworth and only beaten 3/4 length, with 10 lengths back to Garde La Victoire to whom he gave 8lbs.
Had the Lil thing kept straight and/or got the rail on Thursday, may well have beaten Nichols Canyon… And Lil is only 6 years old, youngest of all in 2017 Stayers Hurdle and you’d think therefore more scope for improvement. 25/1 is massive!
As regards Sutton Place: tbh When seeing his name in the betting I thought “who”? Had to look him up. Has there been anything said about the way he’ll go next season? Was improving all the time, but apparently not entered in any Cheltenham race this term.
Value Is EverythingAre you doing any non Cheltenham 2018 AP bets Gingertipster? I’d like your opinions on the classics if you’ve got them!
Queen Mother Champion Chase:
103 points @ 2/1 (Tote/Boyle) Altior (min 13/8)Stakes still to run: 404
Douvan (3/1) should be back next season, but will he be as good? And is the Champion going to be the target? Suspect it will be, but it’s nothing like a given. Even if not giving Altior full credit for the distance back to returning Fox Norton in Game Spirit… That was some performance on time as well as form. Douvan will need to be at his very best to rival Altior. Without Douvan the rest don’t look up to it and – as long as Altior makes it back in 2018 – expect the Henderson horse to start long odds-on. Next two in the betting – Mullins horses – Yorkhill (10/1) and Min (12/1) rely on Douvan not turning up. Both could be effective at 2m, but both have something to find. Ar Mad (20/1) is fragile and thought best right-handed. Fox Norton may well step up to the Ryanair. 14/1 for that race where as over double those odds 33/1 here. Went on from a 13 lengths (call it 8 because FN gave A 5 lbs) drubbing by Altior, to only just failing to reach Special Tiara (25/1) in the Champion. Latter will be 11 years old next year and won a poor renewal. If I was having another bet it would have to be Charbel (25/1). Made ground at most ostacles in Arkle, but paid for a mistake two out; still not totally out of it at the time. Very much doubt he’d have beaten Altior. The selection finds plenty once asked and wasn’t at his best. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Charbel step up in trip.
Value Is EverythingAre you doing any non Cheltenham 2018 AP bets Gingertipster? I’d like your opinions on the classics if you’ve got them!
I will Joliff, but am still in jumps mode at the moment.
Personally have had some 2018 ante-post bets in the Classics, but tbh changed my mind. Need a fresh look before tipping anything up here.Value Is Everything
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