Forum Replies Created
- Posts
BigG – Take a look on At The Racs web page. There is an updated Willie Mullins stable tour today. Great Field is one of the detailed horses.
I still really like Mitchouka for this race. I know he’s been beaten twice by Espoir D’Allen already this season but I think he will improve for the faster pace around Cheltenham and I really like his speed over hurdles. He’s just won a lower quality race at Fairyhouse this afternoon nicely as expected. I was interested as to why Elliott ran him in this race. It’s not like Mitchouka has been thrashed in the graded races he’s run him, far from it. Hence I can only assume they felt he either needed a confidence booster or were trying to run him in a different manner to see if that suited him or not.
Good win for Fountains Windfall. Looked a little cautious at a few but that’s to be expected after two falls. However, the clear round should have done him wonders.
Not the biggest but has an engine.
I agree MarkTT – I liked the performance so much so I put a few hard earned pounds down on Fountains Windfall for this race. I don’t think the RSA is going to be a particularly strong race this year and he seems to be as good as any other horse perhaps with the exception of Monalee but I think he’ll be heading to the JLT.
Guys – this seems like a private disagreement but here’s my view although I’m not sure if this will shed any light on the situation.
Class is simply a group of attributes which are either shared or not. Different classes (or groupings of attributes) are typically differentiated by some perceived notion of quality.
In horse racing terms I would see Class as the combination of speed and stamina, with an emphasis on speed, and how well this combination matches the race distance and type and relative to the other horses in the race.
Take Denman and Kauto Star. In car terms Kauto Star was the Ferrari and Denman was the Range Rover. Both classy vehicles but people tended to attribute more Class to Kauto because of his greater speed relative to Denman. Hence, class – as in high class – is the association of speed with superior quality and athleticism whilst possessing the requisite levels of stamina.
Does it not put you off The Storyteller when Gordon Elliott described him in his stable tour as ‘a very exciting horse for handicap hurdles’? Granted he now appears to have been switched to Chasing but it’s hardly a ringing endorsement for a grade 1 at the festival.
Champion Hurdle
Defi Du Seuil 20-1 E/W – CoralStayers Hurdle
L’Ami Serge 12-1 Win – W HillGold Cup
Whisper 22-1 E/W – W HillI agree MOM: Samcro is in another league altogether versus Death Duty. He looks much more of an athlete and I’m sure he’ll be even better over fences.
The good thing about Cracking Smart is we already know that 3 miles will be no problem for him. He’s been a consistent performer all year and has won on good ground. I agree: a solid bet.
Your point about Altior is fair Charles. I think he’s the best horse in the race, assuming Douvan does not re-appear, but he does need to be fit. I think it all depends on whether Henderson can get a run into him before Cheltenham. If he can, in something like the Game Spirit, and he runs well then I think he’ll be very very difficult to beat. That said I am taking him on with a small bet on Min (win any race @ 8-1) simply because Altior’s odds this year have never been very prohibitive. I also have a ‘heart bet’ on Ar Mad simply because I love the way this horse runs. I think one is always allowed a single ‘heart bet’ in their portfolio.
I’m with Vautour in that I prefer to find value than go with ‘bankers’ unless I can get on early at a good price, which I have done with Might Bite, Samcro, Cause of Causes.
At this stage I think the only ‘bankers’ are as follows:
1) Samcro – probably runs in Ballymore
2) Cause Of Causes – Cross Country
3) Altior – Champion Chase (Banker status contingent upon an unfit Douvan)
4) Buveur D’Air – Champion Hurdle (Assuming Faugheen is a past his best)
5) Apples Jade – Mares Hurdle (yet to see Limini this year).
6) Might Bite – Gold CupI wouldn’t be putting much down on any of the above being beaten. Obviously there is no such thing as a ‘banker’ but the above come close. Other than the above I think the races are quite open and I would be quite comfortable taking others on.
I continue to be disappointed with Blow by Blow. He looked a good bumper horse but he’s just not traveling in his races at all. Perhaps he’s lazy, perhaps he’s simply not the same horse after his injury or perhaps he hates soft ground. Whichever it is he is going to have to improve beyond all recognition if he’s to deliver anything at the festival.
I agree Joe, at 20-1 Defi is definitely worth some each way value. I can’t for a minute imagine him beating Buveur D’Air but as an each proposition absolutely. I missed the decent odds on Buveur D’Air hence I’ve gone for Melon on a value basis. I was considering a small wager on a Defi before his first run of the season when he was 8-1 so the fact he’s now 20-1 with the the news he scoped badly is very tempting indeed. That’s said if I had Buveur at 5-1 I would be more than happy. Good luck.
My hunch is he might appear at Punchestown. They seemed to suggest they would simply be delighted to get a run into him this season.
