- This topic has 43 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
There’s always some hotpots and certainties every year. But i’m not just talking about those horses, which are few on the ground this year as most races look very open.
Of the shorter ones I’d be keen to take on Footpad, as I don’t think he’s beaten much so far although I must admit he’s looked fairly bombproof in doing so.
I’d also like to take on Sizing John, as in my view horses simply don’t win two gold cups unless they are truly exceptional, and I don’t think he is.
thoughts?
The only horse I’d want to take Footpad on with in the Arkle would be Petit Mouchoir…if he was fit and had a prep run.
Think you could take on Sizing John with a number of options.
With footpad I’m just thinking about the price… it’s 15/8 after winning a couple of soft races in Ireland… for a race two months away… you’ll get bigger than that in-running on the day
Footpad is an interesting one. This far out he seems a tad short but you wouldn’t be surprised to see him start at 4/6 on the day. Sceau Royal would have been the obvious one to take him on with but we know the owners won’t run them against each other. With the detriment of opposition I wouldn’t be keen to take him on personally.
It’s difficult saying it, but I feel we have some decent bumper types on these shores this year so I’ll probably be taking on all the Irish runners in the Champion Bumper.
There usually not shy in running against each other, what would make you think they wont?
would it not concern you that footpad has been beaten easily both times he’s run at the festival, albeit a 10 lengths fourth in last years champion hurdle is probably better form than any of the other runners bring to the table?!
Do you think they’ll run against each other Ham? Maybe they will, it’s just that history tells us that when an owner has two horses that would probably be 1st and 2nd fav in a festival race that they usually split up. But saying that if they were to split up then one would have to go to the JLT and as they both look like out an out 2 milers it might sway them to letting loose with both at the Arkle.
And as for that Cheltenham form, well as you say he ran well in the Champion Hurdle and I remember many saying the same about a few winners down the years.
It’s not that I’m going to back Footpad it’s just that I’m not keen to ‘take him on’. I’ll probably have a bet on something against him but throw a saver on the fav to cover myself. Much like I’ve done the past few years in the Arkle (backed Cloudy Dream last year with a saver on Altior).
I would usually agree, but sceau royal wont get 2m4 and i cant see them reverting footpad over to 2m4 when hes been so impressive at 2m (yes he definitely got 2m4 over hurdles) if sceau royal was the fav and footpad the 2nd fav id say you will probably be right and footpad would go elsewhere, but i dont see them doing it in this case, plus one trained in ireland and one from the uk would add to it that they will run against each other
Not any definites, but there owners that dont mind running them against each other 1-2 in the arkle is better than 1st in the arkle and well beaten in the jlt, unless they suddenly believe sceau royal will get 2m4 well, but i cant aee it myself
And i definitely would not take footpad on at this stage, petit mouchoir would be the only horse id be concerned about, but he has to come back first.
At this stage I think the only ‘bankers’ are as follows:
1) Samcro – probably runs in Ballymore
2) Cause Of Causes – Cross Country
3) Altior – Champion Chase (Banker status contingent upon an unfit Douvan)
4) Buveur D’Air – Champion Hurdle (Assuming Faugheen is a past his best)
5) Apples Jade – Mares Hurdle (yet to see Limini this year).
6) Might Bite – Gold CupI wouldn’t be putting much down on any of the above being beaten. Obviously there is no such thing as a ‘banker’ but the above come close. Other than the above I think the races are quite open and I would be quite comfortable taking others on.
Ill be quite comfortable laying might bite at the price he is tbh, hes about as bad a bet as you can get for the festival at the price he is right now
I don’t believe in bankers anymore. I’m all about value these days. UnowhatImeanharry and Douvan were bomb proof last year. DeathnDuty was also a solid fav.
The only favorites so far who I really fancy are Footpad for the Arkle and Apples Jade for The Mares. Samcro’s scope raises question marks. I’ll be looking for each way value in all the races except the Mares and Arkle; ill Probably do a double for that.
I agree that Apples Jade and Buveur D’air (if no Faugheen) are pretty nailed on but you’d be a brave man to mortgage the house on Altior after potentially a year off the track.
Your point about Altior is fair Charles. I think he’s the best horse in the race, assuming Douvan does not re-appear, but he does need to be fit. I think it all depends on whether Henderson can get a run into him before Cheltenham. If he can, in something like the Game Spirit, and he runs well then I think he’ll be very very difficult to beat. That said I am taking him on with a small bet on Min (win any race @ 8-1) simply because Altior’s odds this year have never been very prohibitive. I also have a ‘heart bet’ on Ar Mad simply because I love the way this horse runs. I think one is always allowed a single ‘heart bet’ in their portfolio.
I’m with Vautour in that I prefer to find value than go with ‘bankers’ unless I can get on early at a good price, which I have done with Might Bite, Samcro, Cause of Causes.
1) Samcro – BANKER
2) Cause Of Causes – TAKE ON
3) Altior – TAKE ON
4) Buveur D’Air – BANKER
5) Apples Jade – BANKER
6) Might Bite – TAKE ONDefinitely going to take on Altior. Post wind problem & no prep run.
Lay of the festival for me is
Willoughby court
Don’t like that yanworth got close to him first time when he jumped like a pig
Then beat him next time aswell not jumping amazing. Was slightly better though and yes I know he received 5 pounds.
Just think there must surely be a class horse in the JLT to beat him if yanworth can beat him who isn’t a chaser.
Something like Finian Oscar
Sorry Willoughby fans
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.