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I think people are misunderstanding the role of an ‘Executive Chairman’ vs a ‘Chairman’. An Executive Chairman is more akin to a CEO not a normal Chairman. As such he is accountable for the day to Day decisions and running of the firm.
Jack – Therefore Ricci is accountable for this. Perhaps not responsible but definitely accountable i.e. answerable.
Bozlike – Obviously it was so very sad. On that I think everyone will agree.
To your point about about a potential correlation about inbreeding and injury, I think it would be very interesting indeed to read a report of some kind on this and to look at the stats to see if this could shed any light on the issue. I also think it would interesting to assess the success, on and off the track, of the progeny of such in bred horses to see if they fare less well from a results perspective too. Any volunteers?
I think it’s a nice idea for Potato to have his own thread on EE. Like Boz I never got frustrated with Potato’s post. To be honest I quite admired the die hard loyalty and found the thread mildly amusing. The poetry might need a bit of work (just joking) but the passion for his horse was unquestionable. That said, I think a distinct thread for Potato and EE is probably the best for all concerned.
My favourite post from Potato in the lead up to Cheltenham was the one in which he detailed his complete portfolio of bets for Cheltenham- all of which were on one horse. Loved it – made me laugh out loud.
Last year was most unusual in that Aidan O’Brien struggled with the health of his horses for some parts of the season. With this in mind I wonder whether some of his horses come into this under the radar. Obviously Ten Sovereigns will be his flag bearer for this race but I just wonder whether something will come from left field and surprise us. Any thoughts on some of his other runners? Just trying to blow the cobwebs off the mental archives after such a fun jumps season.
Ps Ginge Tipster – when I suggested analysing 19 years of JG horses I was half joking and I certainly wasn’t expecting you to deliver your own version of War and Peace. Thanks for the write up – it was thorough if nothing else. As an aside I take your point about looking beneath the statistics but I do still feel that some statistics are strong enough to stand in their own. I also feel some of the comments put forward, not just by you, could be considered a little ‘chicken and egg’ in that perhaps JG trains more middle distance horses because he has had more success in this field than over the mile and so the pattern is self perpetuating. Not trying to engage you on this, because I think people have had enough on the topic, but food for thought.
Can I be your bookmaker, please; CNC?
That would be quite fun having my own personal bookmaker. I feel very honoured. What odds will you give me on TDH?
John Gosden has only run 5 horses four of which went on to become stallions ..
Thanks Jac. It just seems quite obvious to me that for all the hundreds of horses coming through his yard, in the 19 years we’ve included in our scope, the fact that he can only muster 5 entries surely implies that he doesn’t focus as much on the 2000 Guineas as other trainers.
Ginger Tipster – I’m curious; what would you infer from that statistic? I guess you could always investigate every horse that Gosden has ever trained in 19 years and see why he could only muster 5 entries. I look forward to the analysis all X hundred horses.
It is you; CNC, who is saying Gosden horses were not ready for the Guineas… And you who is saying Gosden should have won the 2000 Guineas by now… And now you’re saying he had 19 opportunities to win a Guineas. Therefore, it is surely up to you to come up with a list of Gosden 2000 Guineas candidates who were not ready that should have won the 2000 Guineas?
I said the fact that Gosden hasn’t won the Guineas despite being a good trainer indicates he doesn’t focus as much on the 2000 Guineas as other trainers. If he did he probably would have won it by now.
I didn’t say he should have won it by now. I said one would have expected him to have won it by now given his obvious credentials.
I don’t think I need to, nor do I have the time to, go through all the Guineas entries over the past 19 years and point out which ones weren’t fit enough. I think the lack of a winner from 19 years of entries and non-entries from his yard is sufficient to substantiate the point.
I didn’t say his horses should have won – I’m simply saying his horses didn’t win because he doesn’t put the emphasis on the races that others do.
I think you’d agree it is clearly easier to win a Guineas Trial than the Guineas itself. One can probably afford to have a horse less than 100% fit and still win a trial.
As for relying up one stat: it’s not really one though is it? I believe Gosden starting training in the UK in about 1990 so he has clearly a maximum of 29 opportunities to win the Guineas. Realistically, it takes time to get oneself up to speed in the training ranks, so even if it took him 10 years to get his yard in a situation where he could attract Guineas quality horses he still had 19 opportunities to win a Guineas and hasn’t hence nineteen opportunities not one.
I agree with you to pick out a single horse as an example and to base an argument on that would be simplistic but 19 years worth of horses is entirely different. Hence I’m not sure engaging you on the Kingman example will be fruitful given my last point.
I will take a look at your post on page 12 shortly.
I think the point is fairly self explanatory to be honest – relative to other trainers Gosden leaves a bit to be worked on with his horses. If Gosden is such a great trainer, and I think most people would agree he is a very good trainer, and he is very determined to win a 2000 Guineas one might have expected him to achieved that by now. Lesser trainers have.
It suggests to me if doesn’t value the 2000 Guineas as much as other trainers, such as Aidan O’Brien – who has stallion fees to sharpen his mind. Therefore it it reasonable by assume by proxy of a lack of a winner that he doesn’t have his horses 100% for the Guineas but instead focuses on targets later in the season.
It’s not that he can’t get a horse ready it’s that he chooses not to compared to trainers.
I’m just confused by his quotes on 13th October. If he is ‘in great form’ and not just sound but ‘very sound’ then why hasn’t he trained him in readiness for the first major classic of the year? Normally high quality horses who are ‘in great form’ and ‘very sound’ are trained for success.
Just found the quotes about Calyx from the 13th October…
“He’s in great form and just trotting and playing about at the moment [after suffering an injury earlier this season],” Gosden said. “It would be wonderful if they could [meet in the Guineas], Calyx seems very sound and happy now so let’s hope he comes back.”
The fact in October Gosden says Calyx is ‘very sound’ suggests he’s doing more than just looking after the horse. How much more sound can a horse be than ‘very’?
Jack – the fact that Gosden has never won the 2000 Guineas could well indicate that Gosden doesn’t prepare his horses as early as other trainers. That seems a very reasonable working assumption to me.
I’ll try and find the quotes from his previous upbeat update. Don’t have them to hand at the moment.
Hein – I’m just reading between the lines and perhaps I’m guilty of reading too much into Gosden’s comments. I hope I’m wrong. Gosden quoted as saying….
“He is coming back from an injury and hasn’t run since June. You can’t just rush forward – you have got to go very diligently. I’m not going to set a date with him, because that is wrong with a horse like him – coming back from what he has been through.”
I must say I don’t buy into this ‘he has to go up in distance to prove what an exceptional horse he is’ line of argument. Who says staying chasers are superior to 2m chasers. I, for one, love watching him over two miles and see no reason for him to be stepped up in trip. He will go down in the annals of history if he wins three Champion Chases. I wouldn’t put Kauto Star ahead of Altior in the all-time greats just because he won over 2m and 3m+. They are and we’re both very very good horses.
I read it as it’s highly unlikely Calyx will be running in the Guineas. To be honest, I think this is Gosden’s way of keeping Calyx and Too Darn Hot apart for that bit longer but he doesn’t want to say that publicly i.e. TDH runs in the Guineas then gets moved up in distance. Calyx is brought out after the Guineas and low and behold they avoid racing against one another.
I hope I’m not reading too much into it but I find it baffling that a trainer of his standing can provide positive updates about Calyx last autumn/winter only to reveal that he’s only just done his first piece of half-speed work last week.
Will be really disappointed if they don’t try to get Calyx back for the Guineas. No one wants him to run Calyx if it could re-injure the horse but if he’s fully recovered, which is what we were previously led to believe, then it sounds like they’ve left it too late to get him fit and ready which is really poor planning. My suspicion is they’re going easy on him in case he hasn’t fully recovered in which case perhaps his previous statement last autum/winter was overly bold.
I don’t think we should put a nail in the coffin of Buveur D’Air just yet. I know no one has said that but I think he would have won this year’s Champion Hurdle had he stayed on his feet. We know he beats Melon who was second, he’ll still only be nine at next year’s festival and we know this will be his target. I’m slightly disappointed with his odds at around 6-1 which I think is a little short all considered.
Pricewise has already suggested Band of Outlaws for this race and one would have to have been impressed his victory in the Fred Winter
I agree with the comments on Fusil Raffles. My only concern is Kempton is such a different track to Cheltenham it’s difficult to translate the form.
A couple of horses that we shouldn’t forget about…. they’re not betting propositions at this point due to their injury records but if their fortunes change then you want to be with them not against them:
Douvan
Sutton PlaceI also think Master Dino is worth keeping an eye on given his billing before injury too prevented him from taking his place at this year’s Festival
Completely agree with Cyrname, Defi Du Seuil and La Bague Au Roi
VTC – I think the RSA could be the pick of the races in 2020, assuming we see lots of entrants come from this year’s Albert Bartlett. Very impressed with the first five home and could see any one of them winning here. First five in Albert Bartlett:
1) Minella Indo
2) Commander of Fleet
3) Allaho
4) Dickie Diver
5) Lisnagar OscarWith a metaphorical gun held to my head I would probably choose Dickie Diver but that would be a very close call.
