2000 Guineas 2019

Thanks Jac. It just seems quite obvious to me that for all the hundreds of horses coming through his yard, in the 19 years we’ve included in our scope, the fact that he can only muster 5 entries surely implies that he doesn’t focus as much on the 2000 Guineas as other trainers.

Ginger Tipster – I’m curious; what would you infer from that statistic? I guess you could always investigate every horse that Gosden has ever trained in 19 years and see why he could only muster 5 entries. I look forward to the analysis all X hundred horses.

Point is if JG “doesn’t focus as much on the 2000 Guineas as other trainers”, then it would’ve shown up in the rest of the season, CNC. Can’t blame you for thinking there might be something in the statistic until looking it up. ie I would “infer” nothing from a statistic before looking the form up. Instead of leaping to a conclusion or being too busy and/or lazy to look in to the statistic – see whether there is anything in it. All or at least some of the following should be looked in to:

Does Gosden have many milers full stop? Having more middle distance types.

If a horse didn’t win or appeared to have disappointed in a Guineas, did it do any better in its next start/s to suggest it should’ve done better at Newmarket?

Looking at the horses form (including temperament) consider how all Johnny G’s Guineas horses performed in both Guineas compared to how we could’ve expected them to perform (previous form and odds). Obviously if a horse is 12/1 and improved its form to be placed then it has actually run very well. Did the horses that did have good form have a valid excuse and/or still run well/to form without winning?

What did those horses do in the rest of the season? Seeing whether subsequent form suggests they’d have been good enough to win a Guineas.

Was there any other Gosden horse who should have won the 2000 Guineas that did not run?

How does Gosden perform at that time of year compared to overall strike rate? ie If he does not focus too much on races like the Guineas, there wouldn’t be much point in focussing on other races around that time (so his strike rate would be lower that time of year).

If he doesn’t focus on the Guineas, why would he have as good a record as any other trainer in Guineas trials? His Guineas candidates are obviously as good as any other British trainer’s Guineas candidates at the time of those trials… So why would any trainer not focus on the big race two or three weeks later?

As I said on page 12 (with a little added):

John Gosden hasn’t had many Guineas winners, in fact no 2000 Guineas winners and just Lahan in the 1000. However, he has had four other fillies placed – three in the last 10 years. Lahan a Rockfell winner won the Guineas @ 14/1 after a below form 5th on unsuitable very soft ground when 9/4 favourite in the Nell Gwyn.

Daban a 5/1 shot was 2¼ lengths 3rd behind Winter. Nothing she’d done before or since suggests she should’ve got any closer.

Maqaasid an unconsidered 22/1 3rd behind the cheat Zarooni’s Blue Bunting.

On very soft ground 33/1 shot Starscope split O’Brien’s Homecoming Queen and Maybe – second – with another one of Gosden’s, The Fugue 22/1 (on only her second career start) needing both further and better ground in fourth – both fillies running extremely well considering expectations/circumstances. Starscape never won again, turning temperamental. Had the Guineas been 1m2f on a sound surface for The Fugue maybe… But it wasn’t.

Valentine Waltz an 11/1 third in 1999, only going down by ½ length and short head to Wince and Wannabe Grand. SP suggests doing better than could reasonably be expected. Two weeks later won the French Guineas, putting up exactly the same Timeform performance rating (according to them did not improve). Below form 3rd in Coronation Stakes only subsequent start. So nothing she did suggests should’ve done any better at Newmarket.

Daban, Maqaasid, Valentine Waltz and year 2000 winner Lahan (who did not run again) all putting up career best/joint best Timeform performance ratings in their Guineas.

Karen’s Caper 6/1 was 3¾ lengths fourth in 2005, running as well as she did when winning the Nell Gwyn. Although improved afterwards (as many horses do during their 3 year old career, particularly so with a big sort like her) in the Coronation Stakes – this time getting within a short head of Guineas 2nd Maids Causeway (who was 1¼ lengths ahead of KC at Newmarket). So on even Coronation Stakes form should not have done any better than 3rd at Newmarket. Winning the Nell Gwyn in itself means Gosden was able to get her ready.

Infallible 7/2 only beaten 1¼ lengths by Natagora on only her 3rd career start and may have done better had she not raced a little freely on the outside of the field. She too was forward enough to win the Nell Gwyn. Failed to win in three subsequent starts, beaten by Lush Lashes in Coronation and Nahoodh in Falmouth. Nothing either previous or subsequently suggests she should’ve beaten a top form Natagora in the Guineas.

Incidentally, John Gosden has won the Nell Gwyn 5 times, with Valentine Waltz, Karens Caper, Infallible, Nathra and Daban. Far FAR more successful than any other trainer in that time, so if Gosden can get them ready for the Nell Gwyn in mid-April, for what reason can’t he get them ready for the Guineas? Indeed, if John Gosden can’t get them ready in time for the Guineas, which of those fillies should have done better?

According to Timeform Racehorses Of 2006; Possibly importantly in Gosden’s first Spring back in Newmarket Nannina was reported in mid-April to be “backward in her coat and yet to do any serious work”; could only manage 12th of 13 at 7/1. So yes she probably was not ready, although Timeform do say she “looked forward enough in the paddock”. Equally though; it was also the softest ground she faced and considered a top-of-the-ground filly. Won the Coronation Stakes and other Group races on a much firmer surface. So even had she been fully fit probably would not have run to form in the Guineas. Valid excuses.

Rainbow View was perhaps the only Gosden filly with form to win a Guineas. Odds-on favourite when 5th in 2009. I had 10/1 about the bleedin’ thing! It is interesting that of all the above fillies only Nannina and Rainbow View did not have a trial. However, if her poor 1000 Guineas performance was down to the trainer being unable to get her fit in time, why was she also below form in her next three starts too? Does Gosden need four runs and/or three months to get a horse fit? Not getting back to her 2 year old form until a good 2¼ lengths second to Midday in the Nassau before winning the Matron.

Judged on Ran To Form figures (percentage of his horses that ran to form at the Guineas meeting) John Gosden has done far better than most.

Won four of the last five Pretty Polly Stakes there, Taghrooda, Jazzi Top, Swiss Range and Lah Ti Dar. Also won the Jockey Club Cup with Bronze Cannon, Dahlia with Izzi Top, Newmarket Stakes with Presenting, etc. Taking 2000 Guineas day as the middle of a two week period – Gosden had 14 winners from 44 runners in 2018, that’s a 32% strike rate compared to this season’s overall 27% SR.

John Gosden hasn’t had many good chances to win the 2000 Guineas:

Undoubtedly Ravens Pass did not give his running when 4th to Henrythenavigator in 2008. But (similar to Roaring Lion) wasn’t so straightforward a ride that he became later on. Edgy in the paddock for the Craven and racing freely, came there to win that race before apparently outstayed by Twice Over. Also drawn furthest from the stand rail (where they raced) in the Guineas – not ideal for a horse that (at that time in his development) could pull hard. So understandably dropped out last and brought towards the rail to settle him. Pace wasn’t exactly slow but not good either. Having to make ground in the fastest sectional while those in front were also quickening – far from ideal. Also having to come around all bar one rival as New Approach and Henrythenavigator had no trouble coming up/near the stand rail. Although Ravens Pass briefly looked a threat, not surprising his effort petered out. In the circumstances value for being much nearer than the 4½ lengths winning margin. Unsurprisingly getting much closer (within ¾ length) of the O’Brien horse at Royal Ascot next time out. But even on St James’s Palace Stakes form would not have been any better than 3rd in the 2000 Guineas.

Fencing 6 lengths 6th in the 2011 2000 Guineas, doing as well as could be expected from a 25/1 shot. A dodgepot; in 19 runs afterwards winning just once – a listed race. Ran to form when managing to place in a poor Dante won by Bonfire, 4¾ lengths 3rd.

Iceman was fairly short @ 7/1; but ran 13th of 19. Returned lame on very firm ground in 2005, could hardly been expected to do better. Off course over a year afterwards and never seen at his best again.

Pembroke 20/1 in 1993 also finished lame in last place. In the same race, 20/1 shot Emperor Jones finished 8th, one place behind the horse he’d struggled to beat a short head when winning the Craven. Improved a little afterwards, but would he have beaten Zafonic? No.

Exeat a 20/1 shot ran as well as could be expected/right up to his best when beaten just 4½ lengths in the 1999 edition.

Also 20/1, on only fourth start (big horse with scope) and yet to become the top class racehorse (and sire) – as betting suggested – Cape Cross couldn’t cope when 10½ lengths 8th.

Muhtarram on his fourth start ran a then career best in 1992; only just over 2½ lengths behind the winner. Should he really have beaten Rodrigo De Triano? No.

Why was Kingman beaten?
Gosden in absolutely fantastic form early in 2014, I remember being at the Friday/Saturday Greenham meeting where Kingman won the feature. Johnny G ran away with 7 of the 15 races. When the 2000 Guineas came around although the trainer wasn’t in bad form (Taghrooda won the Pretty Polly) it wasn’t as good as a few weeks earlier. They also split in two at Newmarket – Australia and Toormore on one side, Kingman and Night Of Thunder on the other. Not easy for Doyle to know who was in front and after travelling with ease through the race arguably (but understandably) went for home too early. Night Of Thunder then stayed on the better whilst hanging over to the other side; leaving Kingman nothing to race with in the final 50 yards. The Gosden horse going down by ½ length.
So may be trainer form – the two groups splitting – going for home when he did – and racing alone – all had something to do with Kingman’s defeat?
However, in my opinion stamina was by far the main issue. Because three year olds are still getting towards their physical peak – a mile in early May is a greater test of stamina than a mile later on in the year… especially a strongly run mile like the 2014 Guineas. Gosden doesn’t usually run his best Guineas horses at Newbury; usually taking in a Newmarket trial. Did they go to Newbury because it was 7 furlongs (compared to the Craven mile) and didn’t want to go up to a mile immediately/on reappearance? 2000 Guineas being Kingman’s first start at a mile and a totally different test to the fair paced 7f Greenham, or indeed all his other starts. In contrast to the Guineas, although the Irish 2000 was run on soft ground it was very slowly run – not testing stamina and Kingman able to show his customary turn of foot. Probably no coincidence St James Palace, Sussex and Marois victories all slowly run affairs – not testing stamina anything like Newmarket… Not only that – but Kingman also showed amazing sectionals in those races, sectionals which would’ve seen him Champion Sprinter if racing in that sphere. So make no mistake – Kingman’s greatest asset when racing at a mile was speed – not stamina – and the only race in 2014 to test stamina at the mile was the Newmarket 2000 Guineas. So had one, two, three or possibly more valid excuses or a combination. It wasn’t as if Kingman was odds-on anyway, 6/4.

Unlike most of Gosden’s Guineas horses, Roaring Lion ran poorly in his trial when 9 lengths 3rd to Masar in the Craven. Short head behind White Mocha. (Turned the form around by 11 lengths when both horses later ran in the Dante). However, although a top class two year old it’s important to realise he was – at that time – not straightforward. Gave the Racing Post away – quickening from last to first before idling in front and hanging left-handed; handing Saxon Warrior the Doncaster race. So Roaring Lion still learning in the Craven… And although he’d won on 2 year old debut it was nothing out of the ordinary (for what he became); form only good enough for third or fourth in many races of its type. Improved quite a lot second career start. Some horses need their first start of the season both physically and/or mentally (nothing to do with who the trainer is). Like at two, RL came on a lot for his first start of the season. Just like many horses in other yards (eg O’Brien’s U S Navy Flag) Roaring Lion improves with racing. His 2000 Guineas far from a bad effort, 4th somewhere near Racing Post Trophy form (Saxon Warrior improving)… But it could have been better! As said earlier, known to hang left-handed; therefore understandably Oisin tracked Masar in a group of just three nearer the stand side (left) rail. Everything initially went well but the main group raced towards the middle and Masar gradually went towards them. Looking a danger to all inside the final two furlongs, Oisin staying on or near the rail and once the false rail ended, Roaring Lion again went a little further left – away from the other runners. Horses are pack animals, some are natural leaders and some natural followers, Roaring Lion is a follower. So having nothing to race with wouldn’t have been a problem for front/prominent runners, but he is (or was at that time) an immature hold up sort/ used to being around other horses… Just as some horses from other trainers are immature hold up sorts. Roaring Lion possibly took time coming to hand because that’s the type of horse he was. May well have run right up to his then best in the Guineas without idling out on his own. Nowadays he’s the finished article and no longer hangs left under pressure; a better horse mentally in September than he was in May, just like many Ballydoye horses. Looking at Roaring Lion’s form/history/temperament… Without being isolated Roaring Lion would’ve in all probability done better than he did in the Guineas without beating Saxon Warrior.

Of three year olds that didn’t run at Newmarket and went on to be good milers, I could only find Elusive Kate and Observatory Elusive Kate’s absence blamed on a too wet spring and Observatory had excellent form in the second half of the season. Both missed the Guineass, but in truth neither Observatory or the filly had two year old form to suggest they’d be able to show form good enough to win a Guineas in early May.

John Gosden’s Ran To Form percentage in the two Guineas’s is probably as good as anyone. Even Aidan O’Brien has horses who prove either not ready. eg Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the same race Guineas only 4th and 5th before improving in to two of the best horses of their generation. Some just disappoint eg Air Force Blue and War Command. US Navy Flag and Power didn’t even run; former disappointing in a prep and taking races to bring him on before winning the July Cup. Latter missing Newmarket before winning the Irish Guineas… And there are many others. But Ballydoyle have far more runners/fancied horses at a mile (and therefore more winners) than Gosden who’s more known for his middle-distance three year olds (because he has more of them). So when Johnny G has a Kingman or Rainbow View in a Guineas – people notice losses more than they do AOB.

So what about Calyx and Too Darn Hot?
Hope Calyx runs because I took 20/1 soon after the Coventry. But will only be having his third run in the Guineas – asking a lot – more so with the fact he’s so far only raced at 6f. Inexperienced horses can be too free going up straight from 6f to 1m. May be he won’t have the experience to settle at a mile even if running. That said, level of form shown in both first and second starts that early in the season is outstanding. Temerament-wise (if not pulling-wise) seems to have matured sooner than either Roaring Lion or Ravens Pass. It’s his soundness and stamina that are the problem for him.

Dettori at pains to teach Too Darn Hot in all his races so far. My first ante-post bet on him was for the Derby (immediately after the maiden) but subsequently showed enough speed to be fully effective at 7f – took 13/2 for the Guineas. Different type to Kingman, Raven’s Pass or Roaring Lion, TDH has none of the stamina or temperament doubts of those three and already has form good enough to win an average Guineas, with scope to improve still further. If good enough and with luck in running – the trainer is good enough.

I like it how you say Kingman was a speed horse and got beat by stamina, ginge
yet the slow pace helped Toronado in the Sussex..
bit of a contradiction there

Interesting thing about TDH and Quarto I thought is Dubawi world class sire had tons of good horses but until last yr he never had what you would call a outstanding 2 yr old and then last yr he has these 2.Before then his highest rated one was 114 which is a long way from a star and then all of a sudden in the same season these 2 come along rated 126 and 123. It flies in the face of what you would of thought about him as his progeny tend to be better at 3,so it could just be that these 2 were very precious 2 yr old and they out performed last season and they might go on as much as expected.

Ah, may be this will help explain:

Kingman’s Sussex wasn’t just slowly run, it was extremely slow.
In as much as winning the race, Richard Hughes played in to Kingman’s hands. ie In a strongly run race Kingman may not have stayed a mile.
However, Toronado was at one time ahead of Kingman in what turned out to be a two furlong (or was it a 1 furlong?) sprint. Kingman had to quicken past a horse who already had the advantage of a head start and was quickening himself. So the length victory did not show Kingman’s full superiority… And therefore, yes; the “slow pace helped Toronado” get as close as he did to Kingman. Just as Darwin – making the running (even greater head start) added to being a sprinter/7f horse himself – had a massive advantage over both Toronado and Kingman in the way the race was run… And helped him get a lot closer to those two – greatly flattered in only being beaten 1 length and a head; just a head behind Toronado. But as I say, in as much as winning the race it suited Kingman’s exceptional speed.

perhaps JG trains more middle distance horses because he has had more success in this field

I agree, CNC; am sure one reason why Johnny G doesn’t have many top Guineas horses is because of a self fullfilling prophecey. He is thought by many a middle distance trainer and therefore gets more middle distance bred/types and as a result has more middle distance winners.

It’s true JG doesn’t have many 2000 Guineas candidates, but when he does (and he does this year) make no mistake he is well and truly focussed on winning and is well capable of winning.

Ten sovereigns also entered in trial,mouth watering clash if both turning up

Even with 3 legs the bookies still make him favourite

What price would you have him down as Hein.?
Yes the family have been injury prone but are all very classy horses and have run some top class performances
Gosden has issued a more upbeat bulletin, sprinkled with a pinch of salt but it was only ever a minor setback on what we have been told.

major minor, im not convince yet that both him and Quorto we anything more than precocious 2 yr old’s for Dubawi