May 2, 2019 at 18:58 #1430430
Good article Jack. Does anyone have any sectional data on Ten Sovereigns that would help to take him out of the equation in a strongly run 2000 Guineas? If it’s strongly run surely he’s got no chance but some data to back that up would be nice!May 2, 2019 at 19:54 #1430439Running ReinParticipant
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Anyone know where the stalls will be placed on the track…for the Guineas?
ThanksMay 3, 2019 at 09:58 #1430632jackh1092Participant
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Frenchy15- i am sure Simon Rowlands will have written something about his stride etc on the ATR website. FWIW he replied to me and said he was around the same as Jash. That means he’d be better at 7f than a mile.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 3, 2019 at 10:40 #1430634KevMcParticipant
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Stand side course with centre stalls Running Rein.May 3, 2019 at 12:14 #1430693
2000 Guineas day and once again Ryan Moore sacrificed by Coolmore. Last year went to USA in order to ride a much less likely Kentucky Derby horse. This term rides the very doubtful stayer, a doubtful stayer who needs the greater jockeyship/jockey (might pull his chance away)… All in order to maximise the combined chance of team Coolmore.
How long is the so called “number 1 jockey” going to put up with being deliberately put on horses with less chance of winning?…
…When doing so just so happens to put the trainer’s son on the horse with the best chance of winning.value is everythingMay 3, 2019 at 12:19 #1430694
Kick On looks the value outsider to me. imo Has a better chance than the likes of Al Hilalee and Royal Marine and yet is twice their odds.value is everythingMay 3, 2019 at 13:37 #1430696
What odds would have TS priced up as GT?May 3, 2019 at 14:22 #1430703
I have the two Coolmore horses as having a 33% (combined 2/1 chance) between them, Frenchy. With Magna Grecia as a fair 19% (basically midway between a fair 9/2 and 4/1) and Ten Sovereigns as a fair 14% (fair 6/1). If comparing those prices with bookmakers (adding a bookmaker’s mark up to those prices) would be the same as offering 7/2 Magna Grecia and 5/1 Ten Sovereigns.
Had Ryan been riding Magna Grecia it would’ve been 25% fair 3/1 Magna Grecia (a bookie’s 11/4) and 12.5% 7/1 (a bookie’s 6/1). ie Had Ryan been riding Magna I’d rate Magna’s chance double of Ten Sovereigns’ chance.value is everythingMay 3, 2019 at 17:55 #1430752
My 100% book:
MAGNA GRECIA 9/2, Ten Sovereigns 6/1, Skardu 17/2, Madhmoon 11/1, Advertise 13/1, KICK ON 14/1, Royal Marine 14/1, Al Hilalee 18/1, URBAN ICON 18/1, Great Scot 20/1, Set Piece 28/1, Momkin 40/1, Shine So Bright 40/1, Dark Vision 66/1, Azano 200/1, Name The Wind 400/1, Emaraaty Ana 400/1, King Of Change 800/1, Sporting Chance 2000/1.value is everythingMay 3, 2019 at 19:44 #1430770
Interesting, thanks GT. I’ve done a couple of savers on the AOB horses just in case. I’m a big AOB fan actually but I just don’t have enough confidence in either of them this year, but I’ll kick myself if I don’t have a saver on. I read the forecast for the race is a strong pace, which horses are expected to go on from the list, aside Kick On and Royal Marine that should be ridden prominently, where is the expected early pace going to come from do we think, if indeed we are expecting early pace?May 3, 2019 at 20:13 #1430775raymo61Participant
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Be Lucky guys
I shall be roaring OI OI FRANKIE
Had a saver on Magna Gracia as I think he is the danger to my boyMay 3, 2019 at 20:20 #1430778
Kevin Prendagast is quite bullish! “I’m very happy with him. He couldn’t be better or fitter and I think whatever beats him will win.”May 3, 2019 at 20:55 #1430787Louise12Participant
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Well said re: Coolmore Ginger. They are cynicism personified.May 3, 2019 at 21:37 #1430797
There is quite a lot of prominent runners, Frenchy; but I wouldn’t describe any horse as actually needing to lead… Most either dispute it or track pace and a lot of them are doubtful stayers. Prominent racers who are doubtful stayers often either don’t race as prominently – because they’re trying not to race as enthusiastically/settle better… Or, although racing prominently it is in their best interests to make it as slow a pace as possible in order to make it a test of speed when the sprint for home eventually comes. eg Shine So Bright, Urban Icon, Azano and possibly Madhmoon and even Advertise.
So the basic pace map may be a little misleading.
Will there be a sacrificial lamb? Surprised Coolmore haven’t left in a pacemaker tbh, if onlt for a fast innitial couple of furlongs to ensure their horses settle. Ten Sovereigns may need a good early pace to settle and Magna Grecia already proven at a mile. But why should any other owner help the Coolmore duo/favourites? Suppose Godolphin second string Al Hilalee definitely will need a good pace – bred to win a Derby. So maybe it will suit Godolphin too. Godolphin’s third string Dark Vision? Trouble is he is sometimes slowly away anyway, so hardly pacemaker material. Royal Marine could do the donkey work. They tried hold up tactics last time – didn’t work – but also didn’t have the aid of a hood that day and hoods can help enormously in settling horses. Hood might mean they’ll try it again, but suspect they’ll let him go and just hope he gets room this time. Same words applies to Azano. Only horse I can see that both seems best racing prominently and will be suited by a well run race is Kick On. Hopefully it was just rustiness that made him miss the kick on reapearance. Only able to get through to lead because nobody else wanted to. This is also a horse with more speed than people give him credit for. If allowed to get loose on the lead; with Gosden first and second strings absent hopefully the third string can do the bizz.value is everythingMay 4, 2019 at 00:18 #1430827MarkTTParticipant
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Emaraaty Ana will probably attempt to make the running from the low draws, King Of Change and Shine So Bright ( stamina on the distaff side, despite what the RP says ) from the other side.
Plenty of pace
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