May 28, 2018 at 11:44 #1355238bozlikeParticipant
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It’s around this time of year that the first Classic juveniles start appearing. I loved the performance of Bold Approach the other day. He looked green early on but picked up well off a hot pace and was well on top on the line. There looks plenty more to come from him and he could be the first real jewel to come from his sire. Jim’s been talking about the National and the Dewhurst which shows the regard he’s already held in.
I like this fella a lot and have already weighed in pretty heavily.
Bold Approach 2000 Guineas 33/1
topweighttom.blogspot.comMay 29, 2018 at 00:43 #1355286stevecautionBlocked
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I can’t back Bolger Tom. He’s just not been involved for a while now.
Nice start for Bold Approach but Jim’s just not even been lining up with any sort of a chance in the Classics for what seems worryingly long now.
Sanus Per Aquam looked a nice sort for Jim a few years back but he seemed to lose his way going forward.
Gosden’s Legends Of War was the most impressive colt I’ve seen so far and I feel time will show that the Racing Post have underestimated his debut win by a fair bit on 88. The well back Varian colt in that race is almost certainly better than the 74 he earned for his run and I reckon Legends Of War is between 95-100 and certainly the biggest concern for Sergei Prokofiev in the Coventry.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 29, 2018 at 14:42 #1355318bozlikeParticipant
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It’s a fair assessment Steve but I think it’s also right to say he just doesn’t have the firepower anymore. His operation seems to be getting dwarfed nowadays. When he gets one though there’s not many better at readying them. Verbal Dexterity was another who appeared well placed before encountering problems.
I feel if Bold Approach has a clear run of things fitness wise he could be the next big un for Jimmy.
topweighttom.blogspot.comJune 9, 2018 at 20:41 #1356524VoleurParticipant
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Calyx (Kingman x Helleborine) will be going down on many people’s shortlist after todays performance. He looked a carbon copy of his sire, and it’s good to see Kingman is stamping his stock. He put the race to bed in the same manner as his sire too, very reminiscent of Kingman’s own debut victory.
His dam was a Group 3 winner over a mile and finished second in the Prix Marcel Boussac behind Misty For Me. On breeding you would say it’s all but certain he will end up over a mile, and Gosden confirmed as much post race.
He looked far from the finished article today, looking very green with an awkward head carriage. I’ll be surprised if the form of todays race doesn’t hold up, with the previous winner Octave finishing second, and the rest of market principles filling the 3rd, 4th and 5th spots.
Calyx 25/1.June 10, 2018 at 10:31 #1356542MarkTTParticipant
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Gosden has never won the 2000 Guineas and, I think, has only won the Coventry once.
Either he doesn’t have the horses or they’re not races he takes as seriously as other Group races; I think we all know it’s not the former
That being said, Calyx would appear to be a stone cold miler next season so the Guineas should be a target and a debut win bodes well.June 10, 2018 at 10:50 #1356543VoleurParticipant
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I highly doubt it is the latter either Mark to be fair, the Guineas is still one of the cornerstone races of a three year old’s career and I imagine Gosden would love to add his name to its roll of honour.
Also, Kingman really should have won the Guineas, and it still baffles me to this day how he didn’t. Hopefully Calyx can go one better than his sire.June 10, 2018 at 11:31 #1356545Nathan HughesParticipant
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I’ve had a couple nuggets on Calyx at 20’s this morning.Member since March 2008June 10, 2018 at 12:58 #1356557AustinParticipant
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Would want to see a battle between Sergei Prokoflev & Calyx in Dewhurst.June 10, 2018 at 17:15 #1356577stevecautionBlocked
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As I said over on the 2YO thread, I took the 25/1 with Ladbrokes for the 2000 Guineas on Calyx. He beat an 80 RPR filly in Octave and cleared right away from her. Had Calyx not been in the race we would all have been raving about Octave having thrashed her field by six lengths and surely we would have seen her very prominent in the 1000 Guineas betting.
The Gosden record in the race is the worry. He never seems to have them primed in time but Kingman himself should probably have won it as people have said. I was as gutted as a kipper that day, with 9/1 on Kingman and a SF bet Kingman to beat Night Of Thunder and was so confident I never reversed the forecast bet, missing the £99 dividend in the process.
It sounds as if they will bypass Royal Ascot and wait for the Newmarket July meeting instead. The choice will be the July Stakes or the Superlative Stakes depending whether they want to go over 6F again or step up to 7F. I would prefer the 7F myself, as I feel it is best avoiding the potential sprinters at the shorter trip. I am not keen on horses who end up in the Middle Park as potential Guineas candidates and the sire Kingman, started his career over 7F.
John Gosden stated that Calyx will get 7F and then a mile in time. I can understand that some people will feel 25/1 was not great value but at this stage it’s a case that that any horse will be sure to shorten markedly in the Classic Betting should it win its second race and if you didn’t take the earlier odds you are going to be looking at the horse then being unbackable at the new odds.
Sergei Prokofiev is poor value at 16/1 as he is yet to race beyond 5F and although Legends Of War could get a mile next year, he’d be less likely than Calyx and may be more likely to stay at 6F for a while. Those factors made me prompt for Calyx as the early value.
I notice Ladbrokes cut him to 16/1 from 25/1 this morning and 20/1 is the top price now. A win next month would see Calyx 10/1 or less, if he impresses.In addition, the fact is that one of Sergei Prokofiev or Legends Of War will have been beaten in the Coventry and the market may see one cut and one pushed out.
Nobody knows what may be lurking in the nackground for now but I reckon it’s fair to assume that Calyx has run to about 95 on ratings and that’s a good figure for early June debutantes, especially in the hands of a patient trainer, very likely to improve a horse from run 1 to run 2.
Much will depend on how Sergei Prokofiev performs in the Coventry as to whether he will end up in the Dewhurst. If I had to bet now I would select Calyx because I doubt he is far behind the O’Brien colt at the moment and his stamina is much more assured.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 10, 2018 at 19:45 #1356582KevMcParticipant
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He looks some machine! Can’t wait to see him out again. Taken some of the 20sJune 12, 2018 at 13:15 #1356661GingertipsterParticipant
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Had a weekend away from racing, and just seen that massively impressive performance by Calyx. Wow! Personally, I think bookmakers have under-estimated just because it’s so early in the season. ie Because a lot more top two year olds will be appearing in following months doesn’t matter. We don’t need to know what he’s going to be up against. Any horse’s chance can be measured by considering:
a) How good was the performance?
b) How much potential/improvement and therefore what rating he’ll be capable of come the first Classic.
c) How (b) compares to the Average Guineas winner of the last ten years (excluding Frankel).
d) Will temperament enable him to be effective at the distance he’s bred for?
I have seldom seen a performance of this standard by a debutant this early in the season and have little doubt he’s a top class horse in the making.
So given how good the performance was, Calyx only needs to relax and make normal improvement in order to be a 2000 Guineas horse. Conformation, stride and who the trainer is… all suggest this horse will make more than normal improvement. Question is at what distance?
As others have mentioned, on the face of it bred to be a top class miler. By Champion Miler Kingman out of Marcel Boussac second Helleborine. However, looking further back it isn’t as straightforward. Kingman’s asset was speed/acceleration and showed top class sprinting fractions in winning four Group 1 mile races; performances which proved he could’ve been Champion Sprinter had connections chosen that route. Also Helleborine failed to train on (hope Calyx trains on) and her full sister African Rose best at 6f. Latter too exhuberent to stay as far as her pedigree suggested; unusually came back in trip to win the Sprint Cup after starting out at a mile.
Calyx didn’t settle perfectly, raced with head a little high and showed blistering speed, so wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a sprinter too. However, most of this family get further than sprint distances and this was his debut; so at this stage it’s probably greeness – should relax with age/racing.
Therefore, is Calyx likely to win the Guineas? Honestly, No.
Has Calyx got a better than 5% (fair 20/1) chance of winning the Guineas? Ohhhh Yyyyess, wouldn’t be offering any more than half that if I were a bookie.
Taken the 20/1.value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 14:16 #1356758darren83Participant
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Agree on CALYX 20/1 and agree with others on Gosden record in race that only worry for meJune 19, 2018 at 17:20 #1357382Nathan HughesParticipant
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7/1 now Calyx after the CoventryMember since March 2008June 19, 2018 at 18:59 #1357409LD73Participant
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Interesting that Gosden said he would have a break and come back for the Prix Morny next.
Although sire & dam were milers, the dam was related to a Haydock Sprint Cup winner and with the speed he showed to easily lay up with the pace, I wouldn’t be shocked if he turned out to be a Commonwealth Cup horse next season.June 22, 2018 at 10:47 #1357925darren83Participant
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But also intresting Gosden say he have no problem with a 1m to.And prix morny has had 3yo milers in it with
Candford Cliffs and Special Duty.But not normal guineas route for him
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