Forum Replies Created
Do you think Dunkirk Harbour will run given he only raced last week? He won by 9 lengths on heavy ground which holds some appeal.
Potato – I reckon Elegant Escape has his measure. Just joking. By the way, when are you going to get the Elegant Escape thread back up and running. I’m missing the poetry.
Gypsy Island is also a Mare. Hence, I would have thought the Mares Novice Hurdle would be the target not the Supreme.
Others of note…
2) Wide Receiver
4) Chantry House
5) Festival D’Ex
6) Asterion Furlonge
Thus far I would have down the following horses as strong bumper performers or big money purchases who could become top novice hurdlers for next year. Many of these, people are probably aware of already but I would be interested to know know whom you think should be added to the list. List as follows….
1) Envoi Allen
2) Malone Road
3) Andy Dufresne
5) Chantry House
6) Fly Smart
7) Festival D’Ex
8) Botany (Mare)
9) Princess Vega (Mare)
10) Gypsy Island (Mare)
11) Fructine (Mare)
13) Wide Receiver – big money purchase
14) Let’s Go Champ – big money purchase
15) My Whirlwind – big money purchase
16) Ferny Hollow – big money purchase
17) Bravemansgame – big money purchase
18) Bold Assassin – big money purchase
What did people make of Botani’s bumper win at Kilbeggan where she won by 23 lengths and going away? Trained by Mullins. Surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently 14-1 in the William Hill ‘win any race’ market.
I followed VtC and Ham with a small bet on Chacun Pour Soi at 50-1 (thanks guys). Delighted with that performance and the quotes from Mullins afterwards were even more enlightening…
“I think he could be a star. If he’s as good as I think he is, God knows what will happen.”
He stopped short on naming a target but with a performance like that he has to come here. I don’t think Defi was helped by the loose horse but nonetheless it was a cracking performance. Roll on March 2020.
VTC – I’m agreeing with you a lot tonight. Delta Work couldn’t have been more impressive. Perhaps it wasn’t the most competitive of races but he coasted round. The suggestion from connections seemed to hint that perhaps a bit of juice in the ground helped. I think he stays very well and the 3m 2f of the Gold Cup will suit him perfectly.
I agree with you VtC in that I don’t think A Plus Tard stayed. He was travelling nicely throughout but had nothing more to give at the business end of things. To be honest I always find Punchestown throws up a few strange results so I don’t attach quite as much weight to the form as other early / mid season races.
I think Min will also head here now, although he looked a tired horse today. Always tricky to run at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
Listening to Henderson and de Boinville yesterday it is obvious that the King George is the plan. Where I’m a little confused is what that means for next year’s festival.
I get 3m at Kempton (flat track + good ground) but 3m 2f with the Cheltenham hill is another ball game altogether.
I can’t see them going for the Ryanair since it lacks the kudos of a Champion race.
Does that mean he goes back down in trip for an attempt at a third Champion Chase?
Mike – Cracking price on Santini. Good effort – I assume that was taken prior to the RSA? I did the same with Topofthegame – managed to put some money down at 25-1. Pleased with that.
I do have to disagree with your view on Delta WorK. There are a few points I think that have to be taken into account.
1) He is a year younger than both TOTG and Santini which could see further improvement
2) Elliott’s horse’s ran below expectations so perhaps there was some bug at the yard
3) He was squeezed out approaching the last fence causing him to slow
4) He was coming back at the finish and the extra 2f in the GC might help him
I take your point about Santini’s poor preparation but I wouldn’t write off Delta Work just yet. I agree with VTC on the Delta Work’s odds so have also taken 25-1 on him too.
Potato – I have to say I agree with Joe about the number of hard races Elegant Escape had during the year. I have to disagree with your view of the Cotswold Chase which, to my eyes, was a tough race. Look at the effort EE put in at the end trying to claw back Frodon’s lead. I think that race took a lot out of him. I think Tizzard has previous in this regard: just look at Thistecrack’s 2016/17 season from which he never truly recovered.
I hope they give EE a good break now and give him a light campaign next season before focusing on a tilt at the Grand National.
I heard Elliott say that Battleoverdoyen lost a front shoe during the Ballymore and that he kept swapping his legs stating perhaps he was unsuited by the track.
I’m keen to understand what impact losing a shoe would have on a horse’s performance. I heard Santini also lost a shoe but at least he managed to put in a good performance to finish second whereas Battleoverdoyen was pulled up having gone off favourite. Assuming there is a impact on performance, I guess it depends on how early in the race the shoe is lost but how big an impact does having lost a shoe have and might it also explain why a horse might change its legs or is this unrelated?
I’m not convinced Elliott’s horses were 100% at Cheltenham. For me, too many of his horses underperformed by too big a margin to be true. For example: Battleoverdoyen – Pulled up in Ballymore having been favourite and Apples Jade – 6th in the Champion Hurdle. I also think Commander of Fleet might have been another not to perform to his best despite finishing second.
We know Apples Jade scoped dirty after the race but it would be highly unlikely for an illness to be limited to one isolated case. Has anyone heard anymore about the health of Elliott’s yard at the time of the Festival?
With regards to your question about Commander of Fleet’s liking of the track, I don’t think this is an issue. He travelled pretty well throughout the race and did finish second after all. As Cousteau says above, there is every chance he just came across a good one in Minella Indo. I think the Albert Bartlett was a very high quality race and I would be surprised if we didn’t get a number of top horses from the race. I hope Elliott keeps Commander of Fleet over three miles and isn’t tempted by the 4m Novice Chase with him.
Jack – I often find hose races where one horse is allowed to go 20+ lengths clear difficult to read. Sometimes I wonder whether the other jockeys just misjudged it and assumed the lead horse would come back to them. He looked pretty damn good and the stats you mention seem to back that up. I think I need to see him another race to form a firmer view. Perhaps we’ll see him at Punchestown.
I was disappointed not have seen Asterion Forlonge this year. Have you heard anything?
Ginger Tipster – I agree with everything you’ve said with respect to value. All the maths hangs together and the points you’re making are well constructed.
However, my suspicion is though, some punters don’t think like you’re suggesting they should or as you do. What I mean by that is: I reckon some people see a horse priced at 3-1 (25% chance of winning) but struggle to quantify their opinion about a horse’s chance of winning. They simply think “of all the horses in the race I think horse x has the biggest chance of winning” i.e. a relative measure devoid of explicit mathematical calculation but based on a quick tacitly based mental judgement from what they’ve seen on the track. Hence it is a more art based approach than the scientific based approach you’re espousing.
If you’re a bookmaker then clearly a scientific approach is a must since you’ll have to price up all races. But the difference is, being a bookmaker is typically a professsion whereas betting is often a form of entertainment for the punter.
Personally, when I bet I’m trying to adopt more a more scientific approach than I used to mainly to pressure-test my thinking before parting with my hard earned cash.