2018 Gold Cup

The highlight of the meeting, and every year around this time, there’s a mouthwatering clash in prospect, with 7 or 8 “big guns” in contention, though in reality, it rarely plays out that way. Indeed, 2 of the last 3 winners, wouldn’t even have been mentioned over The New Year for this, so for this early in October, those at a short price, will rarely appeal to me. Still, this season is no different, and there’s a whole host of star horses in contention this time around.

Please let them all make it.

Last years winner, Sizing John, is the obvious starting point, and what a solid winner he was, landing not only this, but also The Irish Gold Cup, and The Punchestown Gold Cup. That’s a feat in itself, but it was just the manner in which he won, he always seemed to have enough in the tank, and is as tough as old boots. You’ve just got to admire him, and if, and it is an if, those races haven’t taken their toll, as they can do, then it’s extremely difficult to pick holes in him. His stablemate, Our Duke, is an equally solid candidate, and it wasn’t the fact that that he won The Irish National, more the fact that, with a fair weight on his back, he trounced a very very strong field. It was an outstanding performance, and although I seen the odd comment that “it was only The Irish National”, that is missing the point by some way. It was quite simply the performance of a horse who can only have one target now, and that is The Gold Cup. His form earlier in the season wasn’t particularly shabby anyway.

Ahead of Sizing John in some markets, is Thistlecrack. His emergence over the last 2 years has been incredible, and his Novice Chasing Campaign, which was ultimately to lead here last season, was eagerly anticipated. Opinions were divided over the manner, and more importantly the jumping, in his early Chases, but it was clear that the engine was still there, and this culminated in his memorable victory in The King George. It was certainly the weakest King George I can remember, and by some way, but still, he could only beat what was put in front of him, and he did it very well. He then had his first setback in The Betbright Chase at Cheltenham, when he went down narrowly to the ill-fated Many Clouds, in that epic finish in which the bravest of winners paid the ultimate price. Sentimentality aside over Many Clouds, I would have wanted any horse trading as low as 4’s, this far out, to have beaten the Sherwood horse, and that’s without taking into account his subsequent injury, and whatever effects that gruelling Betbright will have had on him. By all accounts, the tendon injury was a minor one, but although I’m no expert on such things, it’s still a tendon injury, and the record of horses returning from them is not great. If he does return none the worse, then he absolutely deserves his place at the head of the market, and it will be outstanding if he does. A fantastic horse then, but he surely only has limited Ante-Post appeal at this stage, certainly at those odds, with a couple of questions to answer. I’ve got everything crossed here for him.

One of the most discussed horses last year was Yorkhill, and there was much “will he, won’t he” chat over a potential run in The Champion Hurdle. Mullins was having none of it, and he continued his Novice Chasing Campaign, the highlight of which was his win in The JLT. He’s clearly not the most straightforward, and has more than his share of his quirks, as could be seen when he gave away The Ryanair Gold Cup, to Road To Respect, but he’s in good hands, and there is absolutely no doubting his talent. Will he go here? I think he’s got every chance of heading here, and if he were mine he’d be given a chance. He’s potentially short on what he’s actually achieved, but he’s clearly a realistic prospect for this, and he’ll no doubt be the subject, once again, of where he’ll be heading, but I’ll sit that one out, as no doubt we won’t know till a few days before. If he came back from injury alright, and all reports suggest that he has, then his stablemate Douvan will no doubt be the subject of much the same speculation. I tend to think he won’t step up in trip, but with the yard having so many options, then who knows? First things first, let’s hope the same horse comes back this year. Djakadam is another from the yard who needs no introduction, and without quite getting there, he’s ran with immense credit in the last 3 renewals. There’s sure to be a call for him to head for The Ryanair, but it looks a tough one to call for me at the moment, and his final target may ultimately depend on how the seasons pans out for his stablemates.

The victory of Might Bite in this years RSA, was one of the most exciting, and memorable, we’ve seen at Cheltenham for many a year, and the manner of that finish, has maybe just a little, taken the attention away from what a seriously good horse he is. He simply has to be considered a serious contender here. Those quirks aside, the way he was routing the field before his mishap at Kempton, and the way he recovered in The RSA, suggest he’s the real deal. The record of RSA winners isn’t great in this, to put it mildly, but I think after The King George this year, then the 10’s about him right now, might appear very generous. A very exciting prospect.

2015 winner Coneygree has been seen rarely since, and it’s easy to forget just how monstrous a performance it was that day. Understandably, that would have taken it’s toll, and he’s been very difficult to get to the track since then. I was certainly (quietly) of the opinion that he was a spent force, and he couldn’t possibly come back, but he fair rolled back the years at Punchestown, and it was great to see him bowling along at the head of affairs. If connections can get him to the track in that form, it will always be a very good horse that can pass him.

I always try to look for a price at this time of year, and last year was no exception, and I nailed my colours to the mast of Native River at 33’s, and Minella Rocco at 40’s. The initial disappointment of being so near, yet so far with the pair of them so far off, was then soothed by the fact that they had only been beaten by a very very good winner, and in truth you can’t really grumble with each way punts at those odds. Those odds aren’t available this time around, and with good reason. I still feel that had the stable not been under a cloud, and had he not bled a fortnight before the race, then Native River might just have gave John more to chew on, but not to be. Underestimate him at your peril though, he’s a real fighter, and like Coneygree, any horse that passes him, will know they’ve had a race. He’s reportedly taken a while to recover from his Gold Cup exertions, and will be out a bit later this season. I find Minella Rocco to be a serious player this time around as well, and if he can just lay up a bit closer with them this time around, then I genuinely believe he can do it. I’m not necessarily betting him just now, at around 16’s, but I believe those odds to be more than generous.

I believe that covers the “big guns” then, but there’s plenty young “up and comers”, and dark horses to consider.

Giggintstown will no doubt have a few to throw into the mix, and the firms aren’t taking any chances with Disko, while my idea of one of their best chances is Road To Respect. I love the way he did it in The Plate, and although handed the Fairyhouse race by Yorkhill, he seems to be very much on the upgrade. I can’t let one of my favourites go without a mention, and that is Tiger Roll, who I love to bits. He was the first horse I bet for this years renewal, and was offered 250’s for him in January, and this was 2 months before he dismantled the field in The National Hunt Chase. This was the same horse who put in one of the performances of the season in last years Munster National, a performance that I was amazed he didn’t get more credit for. He certainly deserved more credit. He can clout them, he’s not the biggest, but there’s just a serious engine in there, and though he may very well have Aintree on the menu, I genuinely like him for this, and I’ll be amazed if he at doesn’t a least get an entry. Alpha Des Obeaux had a disappointing season, but bleeding issues aside, a good performance in this years renewal of The Munster National, might, just might, see him back on the way to being considered for this type of prize.

One horse I really like is Sizing Codelco, and I’ve had a few quid on him at 100’s at the tail end of last season. Much like his stablemate Native River, he’s incredibly difficult to pass, and I just loved the way a competitive enough field came to him at Aintree, couldn’t get past him, and then had to watch him sprout wings, and win with some ease. It was a real notebook performance for me, and he did much the same thing next time at Punchestown, and he must surely come into the picture at some point. He ran no sort of race in The Plate, but the Tizzard yard was under a cloud, and the trainer admits himself that he got him all wrong. In the same ownership at the yard is Alary, a real talking horse from last year, and although he flopped quite badly, this forgotten horse could come to the fore after an extended spell with one of the best in the game. I haven’t even mentioned Fox Norton yet, another Potts Horse, and he’s sure to be a massive threat whichever route he takes.

If Willie Mullins didn’t have enough juggling to do, then I think that he could have another headache with Un De Sceaux, and Bachasson who’re both in the same ownership. Un De Sceaux could potentially head here, and he’s 33’s to land it, but if he were mine, I’d keep him to the Thursday. It’s Bachasson I really like, a real lurker in my opinion, and telling that he’s been kept under wraps. I think he’s very big at 100’s, and although on paper, his win at Gowran Park over General Principle isn’t Gold Cup form, I think that the Gigginstown horse is a very solid yardstick, and visually, Bachasson ticked plenty of boxes for me.

Paul Nicholls doesn’t have the strong hand he used to have, but Saphir Du Rheu can’t be ruled out with any conviction, certainly not based on this years effort.

At Uttoxeter in March, American also ticked plenty of boxes for me, and though he’s ground dependedent, he certainly swerved this years festival, I think the 40’s will disappear quickly, should he, as I expect, run a big race in “The Hennessy”

I’ve started my book on it, and there are a few on there who I haven’t mentioned here, and will cover them in time, the likes of Cloudy Dream & Singlefarmpayment. I think there’s another 12-15 in the betting who could easily head here, but last word will go to a horse I don’t have a shilling on, and that’s JP’s, Coney Island. Was a blow for Eddie Harty when he missed this years meeting, but I think he has huge potential, and is massive at 33’s.

No doubt there’ll be a few more prominent in the betting, but I think that that’s enough for now.

GL