2018 Champion Hurdle

Hasn’t reached his peak ****

If filling your boots on BD is the way to go, do we have inside knowledge than Faugheen won’t make it to Cheltenham? If he doesn’t then the reigning champ is the bet of the century but you’re taking a risk as if the Machine does turn up on that Tuesday then it’s pretty much game over. For me this isn’t a race to get involved in ante-post at all. Just wait and see who turns up, if the big boy doesn’t then mortgage the house on Buveur D’air but if he does put the house, family, dog and substandard spoon collection on Mr F T Machine.

Im by no means knocking BVD, but we arent just talking about a normal CH contender with faugheen, yes they recorded same times in there CH, but if you want to delve into distances beaten etc then like i said above i think its worth noting that annie power beat a younger MTOY the same distance as bvd as easy as bvd, but connections of faugheen laughed off who was the better

Yes BVD is the younger horse, but when your talking about horses going into the 170 range the improvement they can make becomes almost minimal, is BVD A 170 horse, yes he is, no question about it

Is faugheen still a 170 horse, yes no doubt about it

Most horses peak at what age roughly 8/9, but Faugheen is fully entitled to peak at 10, hes not had much racing really, assuming he is past his peak antepost Is a dangerous proposition, BVD needs to improve 4lbs to beat faugheen if at his best, which yes he could be capable of, but like i said at the top end of ratings the rate of improvement is minimal, will BVD find that improvement, maybe, will faugheen regress enough if bvd dosent, maybe

Also saying min wouldnt get close to either is nonsense, theres absolutely nothing to suggest if min stayed over hurdles he wouldnt be every bit as good as BVD, they put BVD over fences to begin with for a reason, and connections of min didnt follow the altior route to avoid BVD either, they were more than willing to take altior on again.

Pretty much agree with that ginge thats what i was saying above, antepost wise your better backing BVD at the prices, but ruling faugheen out because of age is dangerous, if MTOY can get within 5 at 10, your thinking wrong that faugheen wont be a hell of alot closer/further than that.

I agree with that, people assuming faugheen is slower or regressed because he is 10 is dangerous, your betting on the fact that you think because hes 10 he is incapable of running to 170, but he proved hes capable of that, so what information are people going by to suggest hes slower or less of a horse he was a year ago.

Out of the 2 if one was likely to miss cheltenham its more likely faugheen of course because he has had his problems and they could of course come back and thats the only reason i greened out on the race or i would have left it in play

Should something happen though theres always the chance the nutcase will be sent back into this as his season seems pretty unclear atm at 33/1 he could be worth a few quid incase

I was trying to find the E/W Value in this race, with the hope that given all the talk will be this is a 2 horse race, you can normally pick up some good e/w value that surpasses the value of the winner.

it does look quite a terrible market IMHO. the top 10 for example:

Faugheen – we know about

BDA – We know about

Melon – Going to have to improve a lot on last year to get into contention here. Won what i suspect was a weak opener this season, but more than entitled to improve. – 14/1

Defi Du Seuil – history proves these juveniles struggle second season hurdling. LTO very disappointing – 18/1

Apples Jade – connections seem to be pretty clear they are aiming at the mares race – 20/1

Yorkhill – Not turning up if Faugheen does and even if something happens with Fuagheen, Mullins still has Melon ahead in the market so may not even turn up with Faugheen out. – 20/1

Min – almost certainly chasing this season and same comments as per Yorkhill, re Mullins – 25/1

Limini – very lightly raced last year, managing only 2 runs and been entered for nothing yet which has to be a concern. – plus same comments re Mullins. I suspect the mares race is far more likelier – 33/1

Wicklow Brave – i find it impossible to get this horse right with his mixed flat campaign. No chance on last years champion hurdle run, but then a good winner at the Punchestown festival. cant see him going anywhere else at chelt but not sure i really like him even for a place – 33/1

Yanworth – proved last year that 2 miles is too sharp for him. Novice chasing hasnt started great so wont be suprised to see him back over hurdles, but connections need shooting if he goes for this, Can still compete at longer distances, but seems to always be entered in races too short for him, which i find strange – 40/1

Special mentions to :

Pingshou – some very good runs last year. Has to come on an awful lot to challenge here, but I prefer him over some of the above – 50/1
Elgin – clearly fast improving given his recent handicaps success, but is he really going to trouble a champion hurdle? 50/1

be surprised if half of the top ten in the betting turn up here, so happy to look outside that, but really what else is there?

Might have a small play e/w on Pingshou. I dont recall hearing anything on him this season, have we had any news?

really what else does anyone fancy outside of the top 2?

TommyNag wrote:

Pingshou – some very good runs last year. Has to come on an awful lot to challenge here

Pingshou injured, should be back for cheltenham but if i remember correctly he wont be out until january

Unless bvd or faugheen got pulled your definitely pushing it trying to pick something from whats left to finish 3rd, MTOY at 66/1 is maybe worth a squeak but hes got to many questions to answer, will probably have a few surprises to come yet in regards to runners

Surely you didn’t think because he was the best out of the 4 year olds last year he would be a superstar. So rare that triumph winner is amazing.
And I always wait to see how they run against the older horses before I’m convinced they are special. Judging on last run last years 4 year olds were not a vintage generation. And to think DDS was better than BD last years champion hurdle winner is absurd. Triumph hurdle vs champion hurdle winner?

Even with the poor standard of champion hurdle this year is likely to bring….Along with the early question mark over Faugheen, 8/1 on DDS was mental, yes hindsight is 20/20 but, i have posted before about him having to basically start again, now taking on horses in open company.

The irish he beat, were beating eachother all year. None of the horses other than Bedrock (well beaten at Chelt in a 4runner race) had raced in open company and franked the form to suggest DDS was up to CH standard.

For me, it was a very strange starting place for him also. Running over 2m31/2…it added another question mark to him for that race and for the future.

Was Hobbs confident regardless of the trip? Did he think he needed the trip (unlikely as he thinks hed also win an Arkle)?

Personally i haven’t a huge opinion on his perfect trip, but you’d imagine back to 2miles he shall go and quick.

He’s a handicapper or low graded horse in open company in my view…for all he might still warrant running in the CH as other than the 2 it is looking pretty poor already.