2019 Kim Muir

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This topic contains 31 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by steeplechasing steeplechasing 5 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #1393937

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
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    Does Glenloe go here or NH Chase? How many Chase races does he need to run in to secure a handicap? Obviously he needs to be 145 or below for the Kim Muir

    #1393958
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    • Total Posts 1031

    Ultima I would think, but good luck guessing which JP goes where out of his handicappers. His jumping hasn’t been great in his chases so far.

    #1394003
    Venture to Cognac
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    One of my favourite races of the week, and one which I’ll always take a swing at it.

    Not very original, but first horse I think of here is Mall Dini, who just missed out last year. Squouateur makes less appeal this year, having made the switch to the Ben Haslam yard.

    I’ve bet a couple to “win any race”, and though I’m not concerned by the recent form of Blow By Blow, I’d much prefer to see White Moon head here.

    Long term fancy was Any Second Now, but there’s a number of options for him in the coming months, and all a question of timing with him.

    She’s far too low in the weights just now, but if a Theatre Territory could squeeze in a win before the weights are framed, then she would be very high on the list. 40’s could be big.

    It’s too early in the day to be making confident claims about the Elliot squad, but Out Sam really surprised me in The Thyestes, and he catches the eye at 25’s. Glenloe already mentioned, and he looks worthy of note to me as well.

    The Young Master is on a very nice mark, and I’d happily overlook his Newbury run, but there must be a chance he’ll head to Day One, while another who appeals, but may also head elsewhere, is Ibis Du Rheu. I’d be very interested in him in the coming months, he certainly holds not only course form, but Festival Form, and that run at Warwick can be easily forgiven. My one concern with him is that I think he’s a standout for Ayr, and a win here wouldn’t help his case.

    Abolitionist could be an interesting one as well, but for now, the final word I’ll give to one who I think is perfect for this, and crucially, is on an ideal mark. Solomn Grundy looks tailor made for this, and will surely get the nod for this race.

    I do like a big Antepost on this, and I will have one, but right now, definitely holding off till the entries are out.

    #1394004

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
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    • Total Posts 299

    VTC – Any view as to which horses will be ridden by the strongest jockeys? A good jockey booking often seems to be a crucial factor.

    #1394007
    Venture to Cognac
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    Not yet CNC, but you’re right, for this race it’s crucial. The best amateur jockeys of recent times are Jamie Codd, Derek O’Connor, Katie Walsh, and Sam Waley-Cohen, and previously, any early plays I made, would always be based around second guessing their mounts.

    Katie Walsh has obviously retired, while SWC, although not always the case, won’t give too many clues away if he’s riding one of his own.

    That leaves us with O’Connor, and more importantly Codd. He doesn’t win it every time obviously, but his chosen mount is important for those playing Antepost.

    To answer your question, I’m just not sure right now. It’s easy to assume he’ll go with an Elliot horse, and in particular a JP owned horse as well, like Glenloe, but he’s obviously had some joy with David Pipe as well (which got me thinking of What A Moment as a possible dark horse as well) so it’s a big factor for me in holding off until the entries are revealed.

    Lisa O’Neil and Zac Baker are worthy of note as well.

    #1394010

    thewexfordman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1076

    Patrick Mullins will most likely ride Mall Dini if he runs

    #1394022

    atthepost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 202

    Looks like Glenloe will be aimed and primed for this. Willing to take a chance this will be his target I’ve backed him at 20/1 with bet365. Expect he will get a mark of around 141-142.

    They have been running over 2.4m which is way to sharp for him. Setup in trip to 3.2 will suit and I expected Codd of O’Connor to ride.

    He could go for the Ultima or close brothers but I think is is a less competitive race.

    Good luck all :bye:

    #1397176
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    I’ve taken the plunge and joined you in ATP. 20/1 is worth the risk and i think he’ll go here as the Ultima is very competitive especially for a novice where as this normally isn’t quite as hot and they can acquire the services of DOC/Codd.

    #1397210
    Venture to Cognac
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    Added Glenloe myself at the 20’s.

    Not convinced he’ll head here, but had to cover him, as this’ll be one of my biggest betting races of the weeks.

    I’d love to see an entry for Theatre Territory soon, the 40’s for her is great, but hopefully I can hold off now until the entries are published.

    #1397866

    atthepost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 202

    Glenloe needs another run to get HC mark. They are cutting it fine with the ground drying up. Not sure if this is going to be his target now. still a strong fancy if he turns up.

    I have had a decent bet on TOWER BRIDGE EW 28/1 NRNB. Expecting the irish HC to give him get a mark in the low 130s He has improved with every run and been running over distance to short. He night not turn up but have back hm NRNB before the entries are out tomorrow.

    #1398246
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    Another one I was glad I bet with 365, was able to cash out easily on Glenloe, who might not be going. Wouldn’t have been a total disaster, as only an early go, but as this is a bigger betting race, I’ll take back what I can.

    Had a bigger bet though on Out Sam at 20’s. That Thyestes run was an eye opener.

    Out Sam 20’s EW 5 Places NRNB

    #1398253
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    • Total Posts 1031

    Glenloe is missing Cheltenham GE confirmed this morning at the media day, thankfully was able to get my dough back and a wee profit on top.

    #1398684
    Venture to Cognac
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    I’m a big fan of Any Second Now, and convinced he’s better than we’ve seen. He also holds an entry in The Close Bros, but he didn’t fare too well in that last year, so I’m figuring this could be the plan. 16’s seems a fair price to me, and I’m happy enough to play without NRNB.

    The next one, like Any Second Now, is winless over fences, and similarily, she’s always given a good word from me, but has disappointed, and it’s Theatre Territory. Entered up on Saturday, and a win there will see her qualified comfortably for this. The 28’s NRNB is excellent, and I’ve had a go at that as well.

    Any Second Now 16’s
    Out Sam 20’s EW 5 Places NRNB
    Theatre Territory 28’s EW NRNB

    #1398715
    bozlike
    bozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1664

    Barney Dwan would have to be of interest here after a couple of placed festival efforts. Not had a sparkling season but down to a very workable 140. He’s in a couple but this would surely be his best option. Eyes open to see who gets the leg up…

    @TomBoardman87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #1398762
    Venture to Cognac
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    I’ve only did a book on The Gold Cup this year, but heading that way with this race (not for the first time lol)

    Had to add No Comment at the 20’s. Very good chance he’ll get reunited with Derek O’Connor, and that price was too big.

    He’s also a big price in The Ultima, but this will surely be tempting.

    No Comment 20’s
    Any Second Now 16’s
    Out Sam 20’s EW 5 Places NRNB
    Theatre Territory 28’s EW NRNB

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