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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Running Rein

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 178 total)
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  • in reply to: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020 #1484081
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    If I were a rich man…I would try to buy Fiddlerontheroof.

    in reply to: Albert Bartlett 2020 #1483231
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    I watched the Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle from Punchestown this afternoon (Allaho beat Minella Indo in the race last year) and after the race both the winner Run Wild Fred and the second Lord Royal can be backed at NRNB 33/1 for the Bartlett.
    Both look seriously overpriced for each-way betting with the NRNB terms. I have helped myself.

    in reply to: Champion Hurdle 2020 #1483102
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    I have had two bets for CH at biggish prices.
    Fusil Raffles @ 25/1, if you can forgive one run in the Christmas Hurdle he would have a chance.
    Coeur Sublime @ 25/1, again one poor Christmas run (followed by wind operation) to be forgiven.

    in reply to: RSA 2020 #1483100
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Agree with some others previously on here.
    Minella Indo remains the best value bet of the Festival.
    He will win the RSA comfortably.

    in reply to: Champion Chase 2020 #1482676
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    The narrative around Altior is hugely interesting.
    Very strong through the line on Saturday but on my figures (and maybe official ones) Altior was down around 6-7lbs from Ascot to Newbury.
    His Ascot form was his best for around 18 months and his Newbury form very similar to his 2 mile form against inferior horses (compared to Cyrname, Chacun & Defi).
    Frankly, without going into an NJH wormhole, he looks like he needs stepping up in trip.

    in reply to: Irish Gold Cup 2020 #1481660
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Suspect Chris’s Dream may be a non runner tomorrow based on HdB’s comments in the build up.

    in reply to: Spanish Derby #1444415
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Thank you very much Tonge. Very kind of you to post the replay.
    Looked one of the more straightforward reversals.

    in reply to: Derby 2019 #1443613
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    On the logistics side of things I am attending the Derby on Saturday.
    Will be in London on Friday and looking for a good racing pub south of the river in the Waterloo-Southwark-London Bridge area to view the oaks and Epsom card. Any suggestions?

    FWIW my shortlist is AVD, Circus Maximus, Japan, Norway & Telecaster. My 1-2-3 would be…
    1. Japan
    2. Circus Maximus
    3. Telecaster

    Good luck everyone.

    in reply to: 2000 Guineas 2019 #1430439
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Anyone know where the stalls will be placed on the track…for the Guineas?
    Thanks

    in reply to: 2019 Grand National #1416012
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Looking at the Bet365 National specials I see they go 7/4 less than 15 finishers. I think that may be significantly overpriced.
    Since the new fences were introduced we might expect an average of around 17 finishers on good to soft ground.
    However, with the current sensitivity around persevering when winning chances have gone, I can see a lot more horses than usual pulled up on the second circuit.
    I would estimate around 12 finishers to be more likely on Saturday.

    in reply to: RTV vs SSR #1405746
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Some good points from JamesH re 6th of July and other dates will be similar.

    I have thought for some time that RTV should attempt to make a virtue out of a necessity by trialling a totally different broadcasting approach on these ‘busy’ days.
    They should take a look at NFL’s ‘Red Zone’ coverage where the difficulty of covering 8 or 9 concurrent games is handled by a talented host (Scott Hanson) with sufficient aplomb that some viewers prefer this over the old school format. Red Zone is fast paced, irreverent and dramatic and whilst racing would be more difficult to package exactly the same way I think a workable format is possible.

    Personally, I would make it studio based for that day, have long (free to air) race previews from breakfast time and have a rotating panel with one host as a hub (Nick Luck spings easily to mind but others may be possible).
    The whole day – Breakfast Preview – Live Racing coverage – In depth review can be packaged as a new style format and possibly product (with one day cheap price), attendant competitions/prediction products, customer interaction.

    It is fairly clear the current approach wont please many and whilst a new format as suggest above will certainly not work perfectly first time, I think quite a few practical approaches may emerge from different radical thinking and application.

    in reply to: Japanese racing request #1402805
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Thank you so much MV and Wit, those look very valuable. Very much appreciated.
    RR

    in reply to: 20 man brawl at Goodwood. #1356684
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Wit,

    Whilst the circumstances you quote re the Duncan Ferguson case are true you have omitted the most important fact.
    Ferguson had two previous convictions for assault…the judge at the second case (an unprovoked attack on a 72 year old man at a bus stop!) stated that if Ferguson was before the bench again for any violence related offence he could expect a custodial sentence.

    So agreed an unusual imprisonment but not at all irrational given the circumstances.

    in reply to: Derby 2018 #1355480
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    My Derby ratings, hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings.
    Some good years with these and some not so much.
    When there is an clear top rated the figures tend to be elongated as they are calculated comparatively within each section and weighted towards pedigree slightly. Not meant to represent the difference in pounds between runners but top rated converted towards the BHA 0-140 scale for easier reference. Just a bit of fun for me to calculate.

    I have backed SW in the Guineas/Derby double so hopefully he prevails. An unusually clear leader, in most years 2 or 3 pts between top and 2nd rated.

    Saxon Warrior 128
    Masar 112
    The Pentagon 105
    Roaring Lion 84
    Kni’ To Behold 84
    Zabriskie 84
    Young Rascal 77
    Hazapour 77
    Del’ Roosevelt 70
    Sevenna Star 70
    Kew Gardens 70
    Dee Ex Bee 63

    good luck

    in reply to: Oaks 2018 #1355478
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    My Oaks ratings below…a hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings, slightly weighted for pedigree in the classics.
    Had a decent record previously in some years, first 3 last year (though not necessarily in the right order).
    Personally, in the eye, I like Perfect Clarity… but here is what the numbers say.

    Bye Bye Baby 119
    Magic Wand 112
    For’ Together 112
    Flattering 112
    Wild Illusion 105
    I Can Fly 105
    Perfect Clarity 98
    Give And Take 91
    Ejtyah 70

    The ratings are converted to a BHA scale to make them more normalised and comparable. Think this works ok with the higher ratings but tends to dilute the lower scorers.
    Good luck everyone.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 178 total)