Forum Replies Created
I watched the Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle from Punchestown this afternoon (Allaho beat Minella Indo in the race last year) and after the race both the winner Run Wild Fred and the second Lord Royal can be backed at NRNB 33/1 for the Bartlett.
Both look seriously overpriced for each-way betting with the NRNB terms. I have helped myself.
I have had two bets for CH at biggish prices.
Fusil Raffles @ 25/1, if you can forgive one run in the Christmas Hurdle he would have a chance.
Coeur Sublime @ 25/1, again one poor Christmas run (followed by wind operation) to be forgiven.
Agree with some others previously on here.
Minella Indo remains the best value bet of the Festival.
He will win the RSA comfortably.
The narrative around Altior is hugely interesting.
Very strong through the line on Saturday but on my figures (and maybe official ones) Altior was down around 6-7lbs from Ascot to Newbury.
His Ascot form was his best for around 18 months and his Newbury form very similar to his 2 mile form against inferior horses (compared to Cyrname, Chacun & Defi).
Frankly, without going into an NJH wormhole, he looks like he needs stepping up in trip.
Suspect Chris’s Dream may be a non runner tomorrow based on HdB’s comments in the build up.
Thank you very much Tonge. Very kind of you to post the replay.
Looked one of the more straightforward reversals.
On the logistics side of things I am attending the Derby on Saturday.
Will be in London on Friday and looking for a good racing pub south of the river in the Waterloo-Southwark-London Bridge area to view the oaks and Epsom card. Any suggestions?
FWIW my shortlist is AVD, Circus Maximus, Japan, Norway & Telecaster. My 1-2-3 would be…
2. Circus Maximus
Good luck everyone.
Anyone know where the stalls will be placed on the track…for the Guineas?
Looking at the Bet365 National specials I see they go 7/4 less than 15 finishers. I think that may be significantly overpriced.
Since the new fences were introduced we might expect an average of around 17 finishers on good to soft ground.
However, with the current sensitivity around persevering when winning chances have gone, I can see a lot more horses than usual pulled up on the second circuit.
I would estimate around 12 finishers to be more likely on Saturday.
Some good points from JamesH re 6th of July and other dates will be similar.
I have thought for some time that RTV should attempt to make a virtue out of a necessity by trialling a totally different broadcasting approach on these ‘busy’ days.
They should take a look at NFL’s ‘Red Zone’ coverage where the difficulty of covering 8 or 9 concurrent games is handled by a talented host (Scott Hanson) with sufficient aplomb that some viewers prefer this over the old school format. Red Zone is fast paced, irreverent and dramatic and whilst racing would be more difficult to package exactly the same way I think a workable format is possible.
Personally, I would make it studio based for that day, have long (free to air) race previews from breakfast time and have a rotating panel with one host as a hub (Nick Luck spings easily to mind but others may be possible).
The whole day – Breakfast Preview – Live Racing coverage – In depth review can be packaged as a new style format and possibly product (with one day cheap price), attendant competitions/prediction products, customer interaction.
It is fairly clear the current approach wont please many and whilst a new format as suggest above will certainly not work perfectly first time, I think quite a few practical approaches may emerge from different radical thinking and application.
Thank you so much MV and Wit, those look very valuable. Very much appreciated.
Whilst the circumstances you quote re the Duncan Ferguson case are true you have omitted the most important fact.
Ferguson had two previous convictions for assault…the judge at the second case (an unprovoked attack on a 72 year old man at a bus stop!) stated that if Ferguson was before the bench again for any violence related offence he could expect a custodial sentence.
So agreed an unusual imprisonment but not at all irrational given the circumstances.
My Derby ratings, hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings.
Some good years with these and some not so much.
When there is an clear top rated the figures tend to be elongated as they are calculated comparatively within each section and weighted towards pedigree slightly. Not meant to represent the difference in pounds between runners but top rated converted towards the BHA 0-140 scale for easier reference. Just a bit of fun for me to calculate.
I have backed SW in the Guineas/Derby double so hopefully he prevails. An unusually clear leader, in most years 2 or 3 pts between top and 2nd rated.
Saxon Warrior 128
The Pentagon 105
Roaring Lion 84
Kni’ To Behold 84
Young Rascal 77
Del’ Roosevelt 70
Sevenna Star 70
Kew Gardens 70
Dee Ex Bee 63
My Oaks ratings below…a hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings, slightly weighted for pedigree in the classics.
Had a decent record previously in some years, first 3 last year (though not necessarily in the right order).
Personally, in the eye, I like Perfect Clarity… but here is what the numbers say.
Bye Bye Baby 119
Magic Wand 112
For’ Together 112
Wild Illusion 105
I Can Fly 105
Perfect Clarity 98
Give And Take 91
The ratings are converted to a BHA scale to make them more normalised and comparable. Think this works ok with the higher ratings but tends to dilute the lower scorers.
Good luck everyone.
Yes, a reasonable review of likely Arc runners does narrow down very quickly to Cracksman & Saxon Warrior in an otherwise uninspiring year…at this stage.
Cracksman is a real beauty isn’t he? However, it is just so difficult for a 4yo colt to win the Arc due to the weight allowances and the fact that often the best of that crop are already in the breeding shed. About 3 in the last 30 years only have won it!
A good 3yo or a top filly/mare seems to appear an take it most years. That is why I was against Cracksman missing the race last year. Though all was well from J Gosden’s POV in the end.
If successful in the Derby (I very much hope so) it is hard to see Saxon Warrior taking in the Irish Derby and the King George before the Leger and the Leger might well mean no Arc bid.
It also had occurred to me as MV outlined above that an Epsom defeat might well improve his Arc chances (in an antepost sense).
So given the race is in October the main 3yo is a doubtful runner and the clear form pick is already 5/2 it is hard to find a bet in the race.