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I have theory about this years Derby..ok it might be nonsense but here it is….
1. With the abbreviated season due to Covid, the trials have been condensed.
2. Both in their proximity to each other and to the Derby itself.
3. Therefore the preparations more closely resemble the trials to the Kentucky Derby (closer together and vs other Derby aspirants).
4. In these circumstances seasoning is everything with recent experience and form counting for more than is normal in UK/Ireland.
5. Only horse this year that has had an American style preparation (3 runs, backed up quickly and last run 18 days out from Epsom), in fact only 3 other runners have had 2 runs.
6. The seasoned US style prep candidate is Russian Emperor
7. In addition, he has good form, group race winner LTO, good time figures, superb breeding (Galileo x Atlantic Jewel) and finally he is in the hands of one of the two maestro trainers with runners, with best ever Derby record and last year’s winning jockey.
Might be nonsense but it’s my thoughts/theory and I will bet accordingly.
Good luck all.
If I were a rich man…I would try to buy Fiddlerontheroof.
I watched the Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle from Punchestown this afternoon (Allaho beat Minella Indo in the race last year) and after the race both the winner Run Wild Fred and the second Lord Royal can be backed at NRNB 33/1 for the Bartlett.
Both look seriously overpriced for each-way betting with the NRNB terms. I have helped myself.
I have had two bets for CH at biggish prices.
Fusil Raffles @ 25/1, if you can forgive one run in the Christmas Hurdle he would have a chance.
Coeur Sublime @ 25/1, again one poor Christmas run (followed by wind operation) to be forgiven.
Agree with some others previously on here.
Minella Indo remains the best value bet of the Festival.
He will win the RSA comfortably.
The narrative around Altior is hugely interesting.
Very strong through the line on Saturday but on my figures (and maybe official ones) Altior was down around 6-7lbs from Ascot to Newbury.
His Ascot form was his best for around 18 months and his Newbury form very similar to his 2 mile form against inferior horses (compared to Cyrname, Chacun & Defi).
Frankly, without going into an NJH wormhole, he looks like he needs stepping up in trip.
Suspect Chris’s Dream may be a non runner tomorrow based on HdB’s comments in the build up.
Thank you very much Tonge. Very kind of you to post the replay.
Looked one of the more straightforward reversals.
On the logistics side of things I am attending the Derby on Saturday.
Will be in London on Friday and looking for a good racing pub south of the river in the Waterloo-Southwark-London Bridge area to view the oaks and Epsom card. Any suggestions?
FWIW my shortlist is AVD, Circus Maximus, Japan, Norway & Telecaster. My 1-2-3 would be…
2. Circus Maximus
Good luck everyone.
Anyone know where the stalls will be placed on the track…for the Guineas?
Looking at the Bet365 National specials I see they go 7/4 less than 15 finishers. I think that may be significantly overpriced.
Since the new fences were introduced we might expect an average of around 17 finishers on good to soft ground.
However, with the current sensitivity around persevering when winning chances have gone, I can see a lot more horses than usual pulled up on the second circuit.
I would estimate around 12 finishers to be more likely on Saturday.
Some good points from JamesH re 6th of July and other dates will be similar.
I have thought for some time that RTV should attempt to make a virtue out of a necessity by trialling a totally different broadcasting approach on these ‘busy’ days.
They should take a look at NFL’s ‘Red Zone’ coverage where the difficulty of covering 8 or 9 concurrent games is handled by a talented host (Scott Hanson) with sufficient aplomb that some viewers prefer this over the old school format. Red Zone is fast paced, irreverent and dramatic and whilst racing would be more difficult to package exactly the same way I think a workable format is possible.
Personally, I would make it studio based for that day, have long (free to air) race previews from breakfast time and have a rotating panel with one host as a hub (Nick Luck spings easily to mind but others may be possible).
The whole day – Breakfast Preview – Live Racing coverage – In depth review can be packaged as a new style format and possibly product (with one day cheap price), attendant competitions/prediction products, customer interaction.
It is fairly clear the current approach wont please many and whilst a new format as suggest above will certainly not work perfectly first time, I think quite a few practical approaches may emerge from different radical thinking and application.
Thank you so much MV and Wit, those look very valuable. Very much appreciated.
Whilst the circumstances you quote re the Duncan Ferguson case are true you have omitted the most important fact.
Ferguson had two previous convictions for assault…the judge at the second case (an unprovoked attack on a 72 year old man at a bus stop!) stated that if Ferguson was before the bench again for any violence related offence he could expect a custodial sentence.
So agreed an unusual imprisonment but not at all irrational given the circumstances.
My Derby ratings, hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings.
Some good years with these and some not so much.
When there is an clear top rated the figures tend to be elongated as they are calculated comparatively within each section and weighted towards pedigree slightly. Not meant to represent the difference in pounds between runners but top rated converted towards the BHA 0-140 scale for easier reference. Just a bit of fun for me to calculate.
I have backed SW in the Guineas/Derby double so hopefully he prevails. An unusually clear leader, in most years 2 or 3 pts between top and 2nd rated.
Saxon Warrior 128
The Pentagon 105
Roaring Lion 84
Kni’ To Behold 84
Young Rascal 77
Del’ Roosevelt 70
Sevenna Star 70
Kew Gardens 70
Dee Ex Bee 63