Forum Replies Created
I see Saxon Warrior has contracted this morning to 16/1 (from 25s) for the Guineas & Derby double.
That is pretty much how I would rate the true odds so I have stopped topping up now.
Agree this is a bit of a non-story based on where we stand at the moment and O’Brien’s actual comments.
However, if Saxon Warrior did take in a trial it would I think point to a couple of potential linked conclusions.
Firstly that the Guineas is a really important race for him and they will take all actions possible to give him the best chance.
Secondly by taking in a trial he would become a more (April to September) horse rather than (May to Oct/Nov).
I might be overthinking this but I would suggest that Aidan might have a crack at the Triple Crown on the agenda for this fellow. The Camelot reverse has got to have hurt at Ballydoyle and whilst they got extremely lucky in a way below average year for 3yos the controversial circumstances around Enke must have been particularly hard to bear. Anyway as pointed out I don’t think it (taking in a trial) will happen but if it did a big pointer to a Triple Crown bid with SW for me.
I think Nijinsky took in a trial before Newmarket in his 3yo year (not 100% on that, maybe someone can confirm) and his form certainly tailed off after Doncaster St Leger. Not comparing SW to Nijinsky in terms of achievement just yet but both in terms of legacy and establishing him as a sire…having a poke at the Triple Crown is, I think, in their minds already.
“Mendelssohn’s price is way out, doubt you will get 2/1 never mind 7/2.
BP now 11/4”
Ah…I see. Well he was 7/2 yesterday (Tues 20th) and had been for a week.
I suppose I should have factored in the flurry of O’Brien interviews this midweek and guessed he might shorten.
5/2 less appealing obviously but still the more attractive bet between the front two.
I think the plan for Mendelssohn has always been the Kentucky Derby if he can qualify through the European points system.
It is still 8/1 the field for the Kentucky Derby with only around 7 or 8 trials remaining including those in Europe, UAE and Japan.
Given his probable need to win the UAE Derby, BC form and his excellent dirt pedigree I was a bit surprised to see him 7/2 for the desert race.
Gold Town is evens which seems short but I looked at the videos and he was certainly impressive in the Guineas and the trial over there. I haven’t a brilliant handle on the Carnival form…is Gold Town deserving of that price?
As I would be very much inclined to back Mendelssohn at 7/2.
I don’t doubt that was the case SC but sadly I didn’t consider the bet at that time and having missed it the double is now only 25/1 so looking to make a judgement based on that.
My own view is that this is an exceptional horse and it will take a good one to beat him in the Guineas, as I mentioned above Expert Eye might be that good in my view.
I want Saxon Warrior on my side however and I would judge that if he won the Guineas he would be even money or even odds on for the Derby given his pedigree, trainer, jockey and profile. Since he is broadly 6 or 7s now I think a fair price for the double for me would be 16/1.
So he is a bet for me at 25/1…others will have different views on the value of those odds no doubt.
I did my annual post Cheltenham video study on the 2,000 Guineas last weekend and watched pretty much all the races from pretty much all the currently quoted and entered contenders (top twenty or so anyway).
Clearly lots of potential there but riffing on the points made above about an early start and decent form in the book being a huge advantage…allied to my viewing of the 2yo races, I felt Expert Eye and Saxon Warrior were the two to concentrate on.
Saxon Warrior is a bit short for a horse with his pedigree and profile and there are usually only two circumstances in which a sort like SW wins a Guineas. Firstly a very poor year (Camelot’s for example) or if the horse himself is a potential triple crown threat. Actually think the latter is more likely in Saxon Warrior’s case and a good ground renewal could see the son of Deep Impact go very close. He would also be an important horse for Coolmore as well as Ballydoyle so no stone will be unturned. Impressive on every run to date with Doncaster being really special in the eye for me.
I have missed all the big prices and 6/1 ‘ish is a bit short at this stage…so although the 66/1 Steve mentioned is long gone, the Guineas Derby double at 25s is how I would play him as he must go to about evens if he wins at Newmarket.
Expert Eye is 10/1 and I think that is more than fair given the impression he made at Goodwood. Having reviewed the videos EE was my number one choice but clearly the Dewhurst run would be a big worry. Then, coincidentally, I received an email communication later that day from a friend who had spoke to someone in the Stoute yard to the effect that Expert Eye was subject to a massive change in regime after his Newmarket flop and he had responded exceptionally well, he had a high opinion of himself apparently which had to be addressed (the horse that is). The stable were confident he was as talented as they first thought and was now back ‘on message’.
To give context this is the 3rd bit of stable information I have received in 30 years of betting on horses so it was rare and unexpected and hardly tested over time. Additionally it came via a 3rd party so even bigger caveat. However, it did come immediately after I had made my mind up that EE was the one I wanted to be with and was a plausible if far from provable rationale for the Dewhurst effort.
Finally I have always been a fan of the saying that the best looking horse wins the Guineas. This is a truism I think for horses with physical advantages in late April/early May of their 3yo year are clearly well placed to take advantage if their fitness is equal to their less developed peers.
Both EE and SW look very good specimens (well above average) although obviously their condition on Guineas day has to be positively assumed when betting now.
Expert Eye 2pts to win @ 10/1
Saxon Warrior 2pts to win Guineas & Derby @ 25/1
Not sure he qualifies under ‘recent times’ but for me the most under rated on ratings was Rock Of Gibraltar.
A serial winner as a racehorse, gathering between 2yo and 3yo
The Grand Criterium (Lagadere)
Irish 2000 Guines
St James Palace
Prix de Moulin
Say that list out loud…that ladies and gentleman is what you call a career.
Despite the above he was rated only 126 (I think, not 100% sure but certainly not much more) due I guess to his race style (swooping late using his turn of foot) and the ratings of the vanquished. Admittedly he beat some solid without being exceptional types…Reel Buddy, Landseer, Noverre but also held decisions over Hawk Wing (twice) and the likes of Banks Hill.
Terrific horse and in my opinion many rated his superior on ratings not quite in his class.
Whilst Ruby certainly wouldn’t be keen on revealing too much of the Closutton thinking that particular ‘interview’ was not assisted by the fact that 3 of 4 of Oli Bill’s questions weren’t actually questions but instead vague statements proffered in the general direction of Walsh.
Oli Bell usually a lot tighter than that and I would be surprised if there wasn’t a post mortem afterwards.
Walsh is brilliant and peerless in deconstructing race riding and analysis on neutral matters…on giving insight on Willie’s runners…not so much.
As an each way play to 5 places A Genie In A Bottle really looks like something to bet on.
I suppose…but I just found it interesting that last Boxing Day two chasers went to Kempton in Might Bite and Thistlecrack.
Let’s take a second to pause here and say out loud what actually happened that December afternoon in southwest London. Both horses where novice chasers at that time, with similar levels of chasing experience. Thistlecrack wins what is annually regarded as one of the two best chases of the whole season in super comfortable fashion after a spectacular round of jumping defeating the reigning champion whilst Might Bite failed to complete in a novice chase of decent standard for the grade.
To be clear, comparing these two horses Thistlecrack had actually achieved what Might Bite’s biggest supporters thought he might be capable of one day.
It seemed to me that within a week, Thistlecrack’s effort was being downgraded due to ‘poor field’, ‘moderate time’ and ‘narrow winning distance’. The errant Might Mite was being lauded after throwing away victory in lesser race in what would have been a very impressive time.
Looking at commentary at present, I suppose the forward thinking and potential element of horse racing is what is evident here…and is fairness I usually revel in that. Thistlecrack, particularly following his tendon injury, is seen as yesterday’s horse. Might Bite has the potential to win a KG and maybe a GC amongst other races.
I guess I have a slightly irrational distaste for the anointment of Might Bite pre race.
It is probably me.
For all the talk and confidence of Might Bite showing ‘what he is capable of’ etc.
If he were to win very comfortably on Boxing Day he would only be doing what Thistlecrack achieved last year….as a novice!
I think the BHA will continue to fight, and therefore ban the unfortunate Hughie. They will probably go through the same appeals route which demonstrated, as in the Philip Hobbs case which they lost, that the relevant BHA rule is against natural justice and counter to the legal system of justice in the UK that says a man is innocent until his guilt can be proved; and not, as the BHA would like, guilty until he can prove his innocence. The BHA rule is a charter for anyone with a grievance to ruin a trainer’s career, a disgruntled employee or owner, a rival trainer, a thwarted blackmailer, the antagonist in a personal vendetta, or a plain and simple nut-case. It also assumes that there is no such thing as an accident of circumstances. As has been already demonstrated, this rule will not achieve what the BHA is seeking. It should never have been introduced. A little critical thinking and a dash of logic would have revealed that the BHA could never garner to itself the type of powers Rodrigo Duterte has acquired in the Philippines – thank goodness!
I am confused here…there is evidence of wrongdoing. One of the horses in the care of Mr Morrison, and for which he is licensed, was found to have been given a steroid (Nandrolone) after a random drug test. It was positive and this is not disputed.
It is the theory that this was perpetrated by an unknown, malicious 3rd party which has no evidence to date or has no standing outside of a scenario put forward by Mr Morrison.
The BHA is not charged with proving or disproving Mr Morrison’s theories.
If the 3rd party intervention is part of Hughie Morrison’s defence of the charge, let him prove that is what occurred. Maybe something will emerge on Day 2 of the hearing but from some perspectives this case seems to being viewed upside down.
On the wider point (raised by the Philip Hobbs case) of what the tolerance and levels of proof required are…if it is thought that current BHA policy is a ‘charter for those with a grievance’ then the flip side is a charter for widespread misuse of drug application by licensed personnel for which there are a number of cases on record in the last 10 years.
Good for you. Although the only upshot of this seems to be that one of the few people who were winning online has now been discouraged from doing so.
I have pretty much been a consistent loser on racing for about 4 years now, I was a winner on ante post in the first 10-12 years of this century but that door has been well and truly bolted by layers for a number of years.
Some points have been made above, possibly by those in the industry, that Bookmakers are entitled to cease business with those that are consistently unprofitable for them.
Maybe that has some merit, I am not clear it logically does but that’s another matter, in my own experience I am being closed down and restricted in my enjoyment and in my potential returns only in small specific areas where I show I know the market better than the current traders the layers employ.
Where I am profitable for bookmakers I am welcome.
I any case what I am finding is that my appetite to discuss and learn about sports I previously bet on has not diminished. Despite what some say, to date, it doesn’t matter more when there is money on it.
Interesting thread and particularly for me as I am not betting at the moment due to a number of factors.
I haven’t had a bet now since July, my friends who know my history and continue to discuss sports betting with me, simply don’t believe me but it is true and the timeline of events was illuminating for me.
Firstly in late July, the Monday after the King George, I got restricted on two cycling bets. Cycling is my best sport financially and when I tried to have a £5 bet on a 50/1 shot I was restricted to £0.08. I had been restricted on cycling before but not to this extent…the nature of cycling is that I normally have 2 or 3 long shot bets in a field of 150 to 200 riders but you obviously have to wait a while between wins, I was in profit on cycling and football but behind on racing for the last two years. Anyway, I immediately switched to my William Hill account and my £10 win bet request there was restricted to £0.28
This was really frustrating and I gave up at that point on that race.
I have never been restricted on regular racing though my ante post bets (good record over the years)are often referred to a trader and I have only been restricted twice on ante post, though I have had BOG removed by 3 sportsbooks.
Anyway back to July…Goodwood was coming up and its my worst course in the country for results, when it started to rain I actually did what I threaten ever year (but never do) and didn’t bet at Goodwood.
Later that week whilst reading a forum (probably this one) I saw that old article on bookmaker spy software (msnare), I had checked this about two years ago and found the software on my laptop and removed it.
I had another look on my machine and sure enough msnare was sitting there again. I was a bit pissed now re restrictions and software and had no problem going a couple of weeks without a bet.
I then went on holiday for a week (Scottish islands so no wifi anyway) and came back the Sunday before York expecting I would bet on the Knavesmire, as unlike Goodwood, I do well there. But a strange thing had happened…I am generally a punter who likes to spend time on form, video or even time analysis and usually spend a couple of hours a day doing this. During my hiatus, whilst I had kept up on racing news, I had stopped this and was surprised to find I was more relaxed and de-stressed by not having this commitment.
York came and went and again I was surprised how straightforward it was to stay away from betting on racing & football (Cycling season winding down anyway), I now feel like I have literally 2 hours extra everyday to spend in my life and I am surprisingly putting that to good use with my family and friends.
Its October now and I am still not missing betting which is a bit staggering in itself and I do realise I might feel differently some time soon. In 30 years of punting I have stopped a handful of times but before always to clear my head after a bad run and during these breaks I was aware I was making an effort to refrain.
Maybe because I stopped this time not because I was losing but for other reasons I don’t currently feel the need to restart and I have continued to read articles, forums on football, racing, cycling as those sports are of great interest to me outside of betting.
I am due to go to Cheltenham for the Open meeting in November (a wonderful, annual social event with friends I don’t see otherwise in the year) and I do intend to have a bet on the tote or with trackside bookies when attending.
No current plans to bet again online though which as I say does surprise me.
Good luck with that project, BH.
Strange timing from Dr. Done as Betfred have been running their ’50 Years of Betfred’ campaign in the last fortnight. All that crowing about their ‘unity’ with racing in the RP, on ATR and on their own YouTube channel looks a bit daft now.
Unless a commercial or in-house alternative springs up to replace the old Tote on the racecourses, can the sport stand to lose this income? £6m is just the sponsorship revenue – imagine how much rake is being lost from the Tote takeouts. The BHA were buzzing about comparatively small new sources of income earlier in the year and saying the new funds would make a huge difference to prize money. By that logic, will this news not leave an enormous hole in the budget?
My understanding, although I stand to be corrected, is that Betfred is leaving specifically because ‘a commercial in-house alternative is springing up to replace the Tote’.
This deal was always one where parties were never truly honest about their motives. It was a retail shop grab by Betfred who were never truly interested in the on course operation.
The industry wanted the cash from the sale, knowing it was a finite licensing period that would not be renewed.
F Done is upset about this but he had his own priorities and he pretty much got what he wanted himself.