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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Running Rein

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Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 178 total)
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  • in reply to: Atr Sunday forum. #1318276
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    John McCririck diminishes my enjoyment of everything he is involved in.
    I like the Sunday Forum as the format should be a winner…and it works for me timing wise on a Sunday but if JM is on I am out. I occasionally try to overcome my dislike (as per Sunday for 15 minutes but I usually can’t stand it much longer).
    McCririck routinely confuses his opinions for facts.
    Interjects with unsolicited political views
    Pulls faces and shouts out of context.
    Frankly he is indulged and is deep down (actually not that deep) a bully.

    And on the above he has built a TV career.

    He seemed keen that Cracksman should miss the Arc this year…fair enough if you think his form isn’t strong enough (an argument can certainly be made on that score). But that wasn’t his contention and to suggest that an in form 3yo colt should wait till he is a 4yo colt to strengthen his Arc prospects is a very shaky one.
    He was strangely silent on the stats that illuminate a 4yo colt’s statistical chances.

    in reply to: Juddmonte International 2017 #1313198
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Slight tangent but…
    Shouldn’t this be called the Juddmonte Frankel Stakes by now?
    Surely something should be named after Frankel? A real slight on the memory of a truly great racehorse that he doesn’t have a race in his honour in the UK.

    This race seems the perfect candidate.
    * Sponsored by Frankel’s owner
    * At a prestigious meeting
    * Current name is not massively longstanding or have huge historical connection (Hennessy at Newbury for example)
    * He actually won the damn thing.

    Ok, small rant over.

    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Looks a good race on paper and lets hope its a cracker on the track.
    The King George is the only race that Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard all won and in consecutive years too!

    I hope the filly or Highland Reel wins that would be a fitting winner in either case.
    At the prices I will be on the older horse at 6/1.

    in reply to: Sussex Stakes 2017 #1311631
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Re Ribchester…has any horse ever one this at 4 having been beaten in it at 3?
    It is usually the other way around. Rip van Winkle, Canford Cliffs and Toronado all being recent examples of colts failing to give the weight to 3yos and beaten at 4, having previously won receiving weight as a 3yo.

    Churchill is going to win this isn’t he?

    in reply to: Your Royal Ascot Highlight and low point #1306583
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    High Point – The finish of the Gold Cup – Tremendous spectacle in an important race
    Low Point – The finish of the Gold Cup – Ouch!

    in reply to: Top 3 Party for 1 Box Kings Stand Challenge #1304993
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Marsha
    Cotai Glory
    Alpha Delphini

    in reply to: Best ever race at Royal Ascot? #1304167
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I am generally not a massive fan of how Godolphin run their operation but I have to say that Dubai Millenium’s Prince Of Wales’ victory in 2000 really was a bit special. That was some racehorse and some performance.

    in reply to: Dash 2017 #1303727
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Cheers guys..I was at Epsom on Saturday to cheer home my Ante-Post Derby bet Tartini…In a bloody handicap and he couldn’t even win that.I had doubles on Enable 6/1,Cliffs of moher 8/1 and Enable 5/1 and Cracksman 6/1…Lost again.God knows how the Ante-Post punters on ‘Cliffs’ at 25/1 felt..

    This is how we exactly how we felt

    in reply to: Derby 2017 #1303577
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Having watched the race several times over now,it was clear to see the advantage of how having 6 horses running gave AOB added advantage of getting the outcome he was hoping for. It almost seemed to go along the lines… 2 x horses make the pace (Douglas Macarthur/The Anvil), 2 x horses keep fancied chances close by (Venice Beach/Capri) and 2 x horses trying to win (Cliffs Of Moher/Wings Of Eagles)…it seemed that way anyway.

    The blistering pace that was set by the 2 Coolmore horses would have won them The Kings Stand and a horse like BENBATL who couldn’t go the early pace was making ground hand over fist in the closing stages having been plum last most of the way, just like Wings Of Eagles he was making eye catching progress but with no chance of ever reaching the leading 4 at the finish because of the early pace. It was amazing to watch him eating up the ground in the closing stages and you wouldn’t have thought he’d have finished 8th or 9th let alone 5th.
    He is the horse to take out of the race but take nothing away from the winner, he was the best on the day. Jac :rose:

    It may have looked that way on TV, in the race commentary (and I definitely thought that watching Live) but Simon Rowlands (formerly Prufock of this parish) has a much more nuanced view of the pace of the race and it is outlined in his article attached (I hope)

    https://timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-timing-debrief-investec-derby-festival-462017

    SR would have far more data at his disposal and more time to analyse than Richard Hoiles or other commentators in real time. A fast-slow-fast tempo seems to be indicated by the numbers and that gives a somewhat different perspective to the performances of the runners and which were advantaged or disadvantaged by the pace set-up.

    Having backed two horses Douglas Macarthur and Cliffs Of Moher, I was feeling a little bruised and hard done by on Saturday afternoon but after numerous reviews, reflection and more evidence (such as above), I am more sanguine and looking forward to an interesting 3yo campaign for at least 8 of the participants and the annual clash of generations that follows in high summer.

    in reply to: Derby 2017 #1303561
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Bottom Line: That wa my first and last Derby!
    And of course it is just an illusion that”high class” races are more predictable, every class 4 handicap at Musselbrough would have been fairer..

    Don’t be too quickly swayed by recency bias HB. The Derby is more usually a very predictable Group 1 race.
    Before Saturday, the last Derby winner who started in double figure odds was in 1998!

    in reply to: Derby 2017 #1303364
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I certainly won’t be chuckling at those lads in the Orfevre Arc video ever again
    #cliffsofmoher

    in reply to: Derby 2017 #1303070
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    My Derby ratings below, a weighted blend of stamina, class, speed and form figures…which are then given comparative values. Did ok over on the Oaks thread with the top three rated running 1-2-3, though as Eric Morecambe might have said…”not necessarily in the right order”

    Eminent 18
    Venice Beach 16
    Cliffs Of Moher 15
    Best Solution 14
    Cracksman 14
    Douglas Macarthur 13
    Capri 13
    Permian 13
    Khalidi 12
    Rekindling 12
    Benbatl 12
    The Anvil 11
    Crowned Eagle 9
    Saloen 8
    Glencadam Glory 8
    Pealer 7
    Diore Lia 7
    Wings Of Eagles 6
    Dubai Thunder 5

    To be honest the system has thrown up a result I don’t like much but that’s the thing about systems you have to accept the output.

    My own personal 1,2 3 would be
    Cliffs Of Moher
    Cracksman
    Douglas Macarthur

    Good luck tomorrow.

    in reply to: Oaks 2017 #1303051
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Dramatic day and a decent result.
    Alluringly landed the 20/1 ew element and the system figures threw up the first 3 on top, which I backed in combination f/casts and t/casts to small stakes.
    I will put up the Derby figures later FWIW, though in contrast to the Oaks, where I liked the Chester form the Derby numbers produce a result I am not at all keen on.

    in reply to: Oaks 2017 #1302908
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Think we need to keep the weather forecast in context. This is not wet weather front that is forecast but sporadic, very heavy thunderstorms in the wide area of Kent, Sussex, Surrey.
    So significant if it hits the track but the chances of it doing so below 5%.

    in reply to: Oaks 2017 #1302801
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Each year for the last about the last 8, I have produced a rating for the runners in each British classic.
    Its a weighted blend of stamina, pedigree, class (successful relatives), speed rating and form rating.
    The primary data is converted to a comparative rating for each attribute
    Success has not been universal but I have had some good years with mainly the colts classics being more successful.
    Ruler of the World was a spectacularly good year…others less so. Betting wise going with combination forecasts of top 2 or 3 rated would have given the best return.
    This years Oaks numbers are as follows, incidentally in 8 years I have never had a leader so far clear as this years favourite, usually a one or two point lead is average, a three point lead is a large one.
    Rhododendron 23 points
    Enable 12
    Alluringly 11
    Sobetsu 11
    Horseplay 9
    Natavia 9
    Coronet 8
    Pocketfullofdreams 6
    Isabel De Urbina 5
    Daddys Lil Darling 3

    Given the betting, I have backed Alluringly each way and will combine top 3 in rev forecasts.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 178 total)