March 8, 2018 at 12:51 #1345255
Mark Johnston has said he is very, very happy with how Elarqam has done over the winter and indicated that he will go straight to the Guineas after potentially having a racecourse gallop.
He’s a very interesting contender but Johnston has been bullish before and been way off. At least his bubble won’t be burst before the race, as is sure to be the case with plenty.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 8, 2018 at 17:20 #1345303
Mendelssohn has opened at 8/11 Fav with PaddyPower for Friday’s Patton Stakes at Dundalk.
Unusual to see a Dewhurst 2nd, 3rd and 4th all line up in the same Listed Contest but it’s no surprise to see Ryan Moore on the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner. Interesting that there are two Scat Daddy’s and a War Front in there.
I am not keen on these Breeders Cup Juvenile winners because they have struggled the following season in general for a decent enough period of time for me to see it as a negative. I certainly couldn’t back Mendelssohn at odds on.
Seahenge is 5/1 while Threeandfourpence,who had been mooted as a possible for the Kempton race won by Gronkowski, is 3/1 in the betting.
Just a race to watch for clues and to find if Mendelssohn is going to the Kentucky Derby, with him looking pretty short enough for the Guineas in the circumstances.
Interesting race for a Friday evening at this time of the season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 8, 2018 at 19:27 #1345320Kentucky SpringParticipant
- Total Posts 375
Some of you probably have mentioned the eventual winner, but I’m throwing in a once raced, who has the breeding and connections going, Dermot Welds War Front son Flavius has the Classic make up, once shown and then put away. Looked very lazy and must have learned a ton. I’m sure he’s all woken up for the 3-y-o debut.
Maybe some you have an opinion or have read somethong about the horse? http://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Leopardstown/28-October-2017/1355 No stakes on the race, yet.
SilkMarch 8, 2018 at 20:16 #1345326
Flavius is a very interesting prospect. He earned a mark of 83 from the Racing Post and two runners from the 3 to race since have won.
The big question is that it’s normally more exposed sorts who land the Guineas.
Horses debuting late in October face a race against time to be ready for a Classic in early May. I did some figures on it previously and normally the Guineas winner has run long before Flavius appeared. Of course that’s only a trend but it’s a really strong trend.
Dermot Weld would be unlikely to rush his colt to get to the Guineas and other versions would offer more time to get prepped.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 8, 2018 at 23:03 #1345362Kentucky SpringParticipant
- Total Posts 375
I hear you Steve and agree on the facts. He is only entered in the Guineas, for now. Dermot Welds only 2G Guineas winner Refuse To Bend, though winning the Gr1 National Stks at 2 only had 2 runs that year, can’t get the form on his Irish 2000 Guineas winner from 1986 Flash of Steel, but his 2006 Irish 1000 G Winner Nightime only had a maiden run Oct 1 at 2. As well as Bethrah the Irish 1000 Guineas winner from 2010, 1 run at 2, September 27 and finished 10 of 20.
Saxxon or Elarqam would probably be my first choices. I just found him interesting, Flavius, looking for some bigger price.
SilkMarch 9, 2018 at 17:06 #1345427
Refuse To Bend was already rated 113 (RPR) by September and it turned out he won the 2000 Guineas recording a RPR of 118, so he didn’t have much to improve to win the Classic.
It was only one run more than Flavius at two but it is a two stone leap that Flavius needs to make in a hurry to get into contention.
33/1 is a kind of catch all price for outsiders and there is usually big variation in actual value for money, mostly, unsurprisingly, heavily in the bookies favour.
Good Luck if going for him Silk.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 20, 2018 at 13:57 #1347641
I did my annual post Cheltenham video study on the 2,000 Guineas last weekend and watched pretty much all the races from pretty much all the currently quoted and entered contenders (top twenty or so anyway).
Clearly lots of potential there but riffing on the points made above about an early start and decent form in the book being a huge advantage…allied to my viewing of the 2yo races, I felt Expert Eye and Saxon Warrior were the two to concentrate on.
Saxon Warrior is a bit short for a horse with his pedigree and profile and there are usually only two circumstances in which a sort like SW wins a Guineas. Firstly a very poor year (Camelot’s for example) or if the horse himself is a potential triple crown threat. Actually think the latter is more likely in Saxon Warrior’s case and a good ground renewal could see the son of Deep Impact go very close. He would also be an important horse for Coolmore as well as Ballydoyle so no stone will be unturned. Impressive on every run to date with Doncaster being really special in the eye for me.
I have missed all the big prices and 6/1 ‘ish is a bit short at this stage…so although the 66/1 Steve mentioned is long gone, the Guineas Derby double at 25s is how I would play him as he must go to about evens if he wins at Newmarket.
Expert Eye is 10/1 and I think that is more than fair given the impression he made at Goodwood. Having reviewed the videos EE was my number one choice but clearly the Dewhurst run would be a big worry. Then, coincidentally, I received an email communication later that day from a friend who had spoke to someone in the Stoute yard to the effect that Expert Eye was subject to a massive change in regime after his Newmarket flop and he had responded exceptionally well, he had a high opinion of himself apparently which had to be addressed (the horse that is). The stable were confident he was as talented as they first thought and was now back ‘on message’.
To give context this is the 3rd bit of stable information I have received in 30 years of betting on horses so it was rare and unexpected and hardly tested over time. Additionally it came via a 3rd party so even bigger caveat. However, it did come immediately after I had made my mind up that EE was the one I wanted to be with and was a plausible if far from provable rationale for the Dewhurst effort.
Finally I have always been a fan of the saying that the best looking horse wins the Guineas. This is a truism I think for horses with physical advantages in late April/early May of their 3yo year are clearly well placed to take advantage if their fitness is equal to their less developed peers.
Both EE and SW look very good specimens (well above average) although obviously their condition on Guineas day has to be positively assumed when betting now.
Expert Eye 2pts to win @ 10/1
Saxon Warrior 2pts to win Guineas & Derby @ 25/1March 20, 2018 at 14:29 #1347648
Running Rein, The 66/1 for Saxon Warrior to do the double was still available for ages after Saxon Warrior won the Racing Post Trophy. It was available for days afterwards and it wasn’t until I pointed out here that the 66/1 was better than the two individual prices quoted at the time for the Guineas and Derby,that the odds were cut in to 33/1 the double.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 20, 2018 at 16:34 #1347658
I don’t doubt that was the case SC but sadly I didn’t consider the bet at that time and having missed it the double is now only 25/1 so looking to make a judgement based on that.
My own view is that this is an exceptional horse and it will take a good one to beat him in the Guineas, as I mentioned above Expert Eye might be that good in my view.
I want Saxon Warrior on my side however and I would judge that if he won the Guineas he would be even money or even odds on for the Derby given his pedigree, trainer, jockey and profile. Since he is broadly 6 or 7s now I think a fair price for the double for me would be 16/1.
So he is a bet for me at 25/1…others will have different views on the value of those odds no doubt.March 20, 2018 at 17:00 #1347659
I think 25/1 is worth the bet Running Rein. As you say, I can’t see him bigger than Evens for The Derby if he wins the Guineas.
I only mentioned the 66/1 again because I feel that the bookies made a balls up in having him at 66/1 for the double when the individual odds didn’t add up to that much. Normally they take the “Related Contingency” mantra as an excuse to trim the odds for the double.
While it’s true that winning one leg makes the second leg more likely, there seems to be no thought that the bet is already flocked if that first leg is NOT won.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 20, 2018 at 17:13 #1347661LD73Participant
- Total Posts 1333
Elarqam going straight to the 2000g https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/leading-classic-hope-elarqam-to-go-straight-to-guineas-via-racecourse-gallops/324210March 21, 2018 at 12:57 #1347711
Elarqam has been best backed this week. He is generally 8/1 across the boards. PaddyPower actually pushed himout to 16/1 last week but are also 8/1 now.
Elarqam is one of the few who look fast enough for a good ground Guineas but the trainer puts me off. At 8/1 now I couldn’t back him.
No sign of Expert Eye being significantly backed so far and Saxon Warrior has been static along with Gustav Klimt.
Sacred Life was one I pointed out from France last year and he was originally a 33/1 shot but quite a few firms have him on 16/1 now. The caveat I had with him last year was that his runaway win came on very soft ground. Despite his stretch clear in the mud, he was ridden and seemed outpaced early on. I preferred the way Wootton travelled in his two wins.
I’ll stay with Wootton here. I reckon he’ll be better than Al Wukair.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 21, 2018 at 13:51 #1347714KevMcParticipant
- Total Posts 1221
Pricewise tipped up Elarqam so it’s a mix of that & his first gallop obviously going well that has halved his price.
This time of year is brilliant, although my head gets a little mashed with the mix of Jumps & Flat.March 21, 2018 at 18:28 #1347738
Mendelssohn won the Dundalk race mentioned earlier but I was underwhelmed myself. Threeandfourpence went off like a hare and asked a few questions of the favourite but couldn’t keep it up and ended being caught reasonably comfortably by the Breeders Cup winner. I felt it was an OK but not a special effort on return from Mendelssohn and I thought Seahenge was disappointing.
I am not sure any of those three will head to the Guineas and I saw Mendelssohn in the betting for the UAE Derby.
A point from that Dundalk race was that the Racing Post had Mendelssohn equalling his career best of 115 that day and that looks highly unlikely in an early season Listed race. They awarded Seahenge 104,just 6lbs below his best.
The strange thing for me is that Seahenge got 104 but the 4th horse, just a length behind, got only 92. Is it just me, or does 12 lbs for a length over a mile seem like horse crap to anyone else?
In giving Blackgold Fairy 92, the Racing Post awarded her an eleven pounds rise, it just stinks to me to say that this race saw a Group 1 equalling performance first time out for Mendelssohn. Squiggle City?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 21, 2018 at 19:21 #1347743
I think the plan for Mendelssohn has always been the Kentucky Derby if he can qualify through the European points system.
It is still 8/1 the field for the Kentucky Derby with only around 7 or 8 trials remaining including those in Europe, UAE and Japan.
Given his probable need to win the UAE Derby, BC form and his excellent dirt pedigree I was a bit surprised to see him 7/2 for the desert race.
Gold Town is evens which seems short but I looked at the videos and he was certainly impressive in the Guineas and the trial over there. I haven’t a brilliant handle on the Carnival form…is Gold Town deserving of that price?
As I would be very much inclined to back Mendelssohn at 7/2.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.