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Runs 8 wins 4 second 2 3rd 1 . he was 1 from 1 over a mile came second staying on in the 2000 guineas im not fussed his stakes win came in Doha it could of been in Timbuktu his improving exposed yes exposed over a mile no 1 from 2 now i think he would get further judging by the way he was staying on i don’t get how anyone could say he wont improve on that its good the Elarqam camp have an excuse now he wasn’t fit they should of ran him i know Elarqam is bred to be a superstar but his clearly not nor is Tip Two Win but he will win a group one race imo and i would back him against elargam if the come to blows again. small stakes tho
Top Stuff Steve and Nausered!!
Was impressed with the winner and IMO he won it with a burst of speed and then held on.
Looks a mile and quarter tome and the prices offered currently for the Derby are a joke!!
Looking at the opposition I see no reason why Saxon Warrior can’t achieve what Camelot couldn’t and claim the Triple Crown. Win at Epsom, win at the Curragh and on to Doncaster.
I’ll definately be opposing him at Epsom. He showed so much speed to float through the race yesterday, and he did not like the downhill part of the dip to my eyes. I backed Sea The Stars when he won the 2000, he was far more workman like over the mile, and looked like he would improve massively stepped up in trip.
Me personally, I did not get that impression with Saxon yesterday (although I have only watched the race once, live). He broke badly, yet through 3f, 4f & 5f he was running all over everything to my eye. That does not add up to 1m4f, especially not at downhill Epsom for me.
If this horse stays 1m4f, the way he travelled through the race yesterday, he’ll be unbeatable, and one of the all time greats.
I’d lean towards 1m2f is the limit for him personally.
“Form” is the level of performance achieved, Follyhoog; not if a horse wins, comes second etc. So the quality of race a horse runs in matters.
Don’t think you understood what I meant. Did not say Tip To Win “won’t improve” – nobody can say that… I was talking about how likely each horse was to improve in the Guineas going in to the race. From all we knew about the horses beforehand Elarqam was far more likely to improve than Tip To Win (hence the difference in prices). However; “Racing” is an inexact science and in the event Tip To Win was the one that improved most.
I’ll be delighted if Tip To Win wins a Group 1, my father went to school in the village where he’s trained and am personally a fan of the trainer. Tip To Win is a genuine sort and has a fair chance of going one better in the St James’s Palce; particularly if the other Guineas principles go to Epsom. After showing improvement at Ascot he might even show a bit more at Ascot.
Value Is EverythingThe best clue for me in staying prognosis for Saxon Warrior is the Beresford Stakes from last season.
On only his second start, Saxon Warrior was facing a mile race on proper soft ground against Delano Roosevelt and Kew Gardens, real staying types. Kew Gardens won the Zetland afterwards and both colts are entered in the upcoming Chester Vase over the extended mile and a half.
Saxon Warrior came through to take it up that day and he stayed on strongly to score with something in hand. The time of the race was 9.5 seconds slower than standard so that was a good display of staying power.
Just a few weeks ago there was speculation that Saxon Warrior might start off in the Dante instead and most of the concerns with Saxon Warrior were based on him being short of the pace required for the Guineas. Now he’s being labelled too fast.
This is his Beresford run and based on it he seems a shoo-in to get at least 10F:-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-overlay/VOD/1005044
His jockey from the Guineas has said the horse will get 12F, describing him as a “Proper horse”
Another factor is “Who can beat him in the Derby”
The Pentagon was a bit disappointing coming into this season. Kew Gardens, Nelson and Delano Roosevelt have been closely tied for a while now and we should get clues from the Chester Vase as to whether a clear top dog will emerge. Even then the big question is whether anything can go with Saxon Warrior once his jockey asks him to go and win it?
Given decent ground Saxon Warrior will surely be held up and delivered late. I can see Saxon Warrior as the best Derby winner since Golden Horn and I think he has a 130 performance in him and that will be enough I feel.
There was some 6/4 and 11/8 after the Guineas but it didn’t last. On the day he could be 4/6 or less. I’d rather he didn’t go to Doncaster, it seems the best way to get him beaten.
For now he looks set to go and do something Cracksman could not, ie win the Derby. Where do they sit on comparison would then surely be mooted.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just a word for Without Parole fans.
You can back him at 12/1 for the St James Palace Stakes. The betting for that race will take a huge change depending on the Guineas result. Of course the winner might contract for Royal Ascot depending who wins but it’s more likely plenty bubbles will burst amongst those ahead of Without Parole in the St James betting at the moment.
Just a thought.
Without Parole is 8/1 at best now. I hope interested parties snared the 12’s
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As much as I liked Without Parole for the Guineas, I didn’t back him for SJP.
I’m prepared to back him at a shorter price once I see him entered in some races and back in full work. He’s quite delicate it seems and as it’s not NRNB, I couldn’t be backing him antepost without that being in play.
It was just a stone bruise that caused him to miss the Guineas. Gosden said he didn’t want to take any risks as they weren’t willing to rush the horse, so would just look for a prep race and then go for The St James Palace.
The Heron Stakes at Sandown was given as the probable target for his prep run. If he wins that, he will obviously shorten and other colts may have drifted off in different directions by then.
I wouldn’t want to be taking Gustav Klimt at 7/2 after his Guineas showing. For me, there is a possibility that Without Parole will end up favourite for The St James Palace.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Would Saxon Warrior be likely to run in the St Leger?
I guess after Camelot they might want to get the triple crown, but maybe im daft but wouldnt they rather go and win the Arc?Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Would Saxon Warrior be likely to run in the St Leger?
I guess after Camelot they might want to get the triple crown, but maybe im daft but wouldnt they rather go and win the Arc?Yes Jack, Coolmore would probably rather win the Arc. But with Cracksman and Enable (two way above average Group 1 horses) likely to go for the Arc there’s not much chance of Saxon Warrior being good enough to win that race. Coolmore would rather have a good chance of winning a St Leger/Triple Crown than finish third to Gosden’s duo… Hence the official line currently favouring Doncaster. However, if Saxon Warrior happened to improve in to a horse of similar ability to Cracksman and Enable (or the Gosden duo run disappointingly between now and October) suspect there might be a rethink. Might hear the excuse “we don’t think he’ll stay the St Leger trip”.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think AOB would be afraid of taking on the Gosden duo it’s more to do with accomplishing something new to add to his CV.
I’m continuing to see plaudits for the winner. Here’s the rider’s:
“I was half expecting to have to get after him early but he travelled so well that I could wait much longer than I thought to give him a squeeze. When I gave him a squeeze he made up five lengths in four strides. It was incredible,” O’Brien said of Saxon Warrior.
I must have been reading so many jumps races that I’ve lost any scintilla of ability to read a flat race.
I thought he ground through the gears at a reasonable rate – certainly for a would be stayer – but I must have missed the part Donnacha mentions. He ran around and hung and I’d be far from certain he was idling as badly as many think.
Lovely horse and a fine prospect but the jury is still out for me and could well be for a race or two yet.
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